Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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DESTRUCTION5
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#361 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:26 am

Canelaw99 wrote:That NAM model is 48 hours (first image), not 5 days from now.


Id Ignore the Nam....Winter Model..
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#362 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:27 am

It looks like she has lost her inner core through the night. I wonder if this brings on another core formation in the next few hours.
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#363 Postby MortisFL » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:28 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:That NAM model is 48 hours (first image), not 5 days from now.


Id Ignore the Nam....Winter Model..


Agreed, stick with the globals.
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#364 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:37 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM RITA (AL182005) ON 20050919 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050919 1200 050920 0000 050920 1200 050921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 74.6W 23.4N 76.7W 23.9N 78.8W 24.4N 81.0W
BAMM 22.8N 74.6W 23.3N 76.4W 23.7N 78.5W 24.3N 80.4W
A98E 22.8N 74.6W 23.1N 76.3W 23.6N 78.2W 24.2N 80.1W
LBAR 22.8N 74.6W 23.3N 76.5W 24.0N 78.3W 24.5N 80.1W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050921 1200 050922 1200 050923 1200 050924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 83.1W 25.8N 86.5W 27.1N 89.7W 29.7N 93.1W
BAMM 24.8N 82.5W 25.7N 86.1W 26.9N 89.9W 28.8N 93.7W
A98E 25.0N 81.9W 26.1N 85.1W 28.1N 88.2W 31.3N 91.0W
LBAR 25.0N 81.5W 25.7N 83.6W 27.1N 85.0W 29.3N 87.6W
SHIP 85KTS 94KTS 94KTS 87KTS
DSHP 85KTS 94KTS 94KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.8N LONCUR = 74.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 73.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 71.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 90NM

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#365 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:45 am

Looks like folks between Houston and Morgan City will need to pay close attention based on those model runs. Will the trend continue and put more of the central/northern gulf in the dreaded cone once more? The 5am NHC discussion indicated that they were on the southern edge of all the model guidance perhaps foretelling a significant shift to the right after entering the gulf. Not good!
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#366 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:52 am

Bad feeling Rita will become an ugly bi*** like Katrina :eek:
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#367 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:52 am

Well, my graphic on Google Earth has updated. Now I'm just waiting for Skeetobite's graphic to update :D

Image
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#368 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:54 am

It seems people forget so easy how these model runs take such significant jumps from the day/evening runs....

It is obvious though that the NHC is concerned about a WNW/NW type of movement in the latter stage of the forecast. Looking more and more like a Texas hit...

Still early and plenty of days to watch. Can't wait till the NOAA planes start making their flights...
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#369 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:58 am

If trend continues it could hit panhandle.... but I have a feeling LA will be be enventual landfall...
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#370 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:59 am

....yea, and people in La. think it'll be an La. hit, people in FL think it'll be a FL hit, people in the Carolinas still think it will turn up the east coast so it's normal for people in Texas to think it'll be a Texas hit. It's just natural like that.
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#371 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:01 am

skysummit wrote:....yea, and people in La. think it'll be an La. hit, people in FL think it'll be a FL hit, people in the Carolinas still think it will turn up the east coast so it's normal for people in Texas to think it'll be a Texas hit. It's just natural like that.


I'm not from LA...
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#372 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:01 am

well, run to run models will be all over the place many times.....this ridge still means MEGA business...TX'ns we know how strong it is cuz its gonna be very very hot for the next 3-4 days...We all need to think about the possibility of a hit folks....still lots of time
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#373 Postby MortisFL » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:02 am

dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:....yea, and people in La. think it'll be an La. hit, people in FL think it'll be a FL hit, people in the Carolinas still think it will turn up the east coast so it's normal for people in Texas to think it'll be a Texas hit. It's just natural like that.


I'm not from LA...


how bout the panhandle...?
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#374 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:03 am

deltadog03 wrote:well, run to run models will be all over the place many times.....this ridge still means MEGA business...TX'ns we know how strong it is cuz its gonna be very very hot for the next 3-4 days...We all need to think about the possibility of a hit folks....still lots of time


Agreed. this high pressure here now is unreal.. If it doesn't move, then its going south of here.
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#375 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:03 am

dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:....yea, and people in La. think it'll be an La. hit, people in FL think it'll be a FL hit, people in the Carolinas still think it will turn up the east coast so it's normal for people in Texas to think it'll be a Texas hit. It's just natural like that.


I'm not from LA...


Oh, I wasn't replying to your comment dwg. I was just looking at "overall" thoughts. Sorry if anyone took this the wrong way.
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#376 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:04 am

MortisFL wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:....yea, and people in La. think it'll be an La. hit, people in FL think it'll be a FL hit, people in the Carolinas still think it will turn up the east coast so it's normal for people in Texas to think it'll be a Texas hit. It's just natural like that.


I'm not from LA...


how bout the panhandle...?


Wrong again...
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#377 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:07 am

[quote="skysummit"]Well, my graphic on Google Earth has updated. Now I'm just waiting for Skeetobite's graphic to update :D

Oh hell...they are updated! Sorry skeeto! :D
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#378 Postby aOl » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:07 am

Guys, this storm is obviously going to Pensacola. Duh.
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#379 Postby oneness » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:09 am

Things are mobile several days out, but what is becoming rather fixed is that the Keys now look like they are going to get a direct hit over much of their length. Might be a good idea to focus on that some.
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#380 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:10 am

The Keys are definitely going to get some effects. There's a mandatory evac order for everyone in Key West as of this morning too. They don't take things lightly here, so when they make everyone go, they're expecting some icky weather....
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