Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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TheEuropean
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#361 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:20 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Well-Defined structure....



But open to the southeast...
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#362 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:32 pm

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#363 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:36 pm

High and increasing shear to the southwest of Epsilon. IMO tomorrow it will be downgraded to a storm again.
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#364 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:34 pm

04/2345 UTC 34.3N 37.9W T4.0/4.5 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean

No change from this afternoons T Numbers so it's still a hurricane tonight between 65-70kts.
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#365 Postby WindRunner » Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:54 pm

Minimal hurricane now, 00Z.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051205 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051205 0000 051205 1200 051206 0000 051206 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 37.8W 34.8N 35.0W 35.0N 33.0W 34.3N 32.2W
BAMM 34.3N 37.8W 34.0N 35.9W 33.2N 34.8W 32.1N 35.0W
A98E 34.3N 37.8W 34.5N 36.0W 34.6N 33.9W 34.2N 32.4W
LBAR 34.3N 37.8W 34.6N 35.3W 34.6N 33.2W 33.9N 31.6W
SHIP 65KTS 54KTS 45KTS 37KTS
DSHP 65KTS 54KTS 45KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051207 0000 051208 0000 051209 0000 051210 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 33.1W 29.8N 38.4W 22.3N 43.3W 17.3N 46.2W
BAMM 31.0N 36.9W 28.6N 42.6W 24.6N 47.4W 22.3N 50.4W
A98E 33.6N 32.1W 32.4N 31.3W 29.3N 33.8W 23.2N 32.7W
LBAR 32.9N 31.0W 29.5N 30.4W 28.3N 30.9W 26.3N 30.1W
SHIP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 37.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 92DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM
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#366 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:27 pm

The 5-day cone shows Epsilon on a track toward Puerto Rico:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I know, I know, it will likely be gone long before then.
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#367 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:30 pm

It is looking better then it did 6 hours ago. Deeper convection to the northwest quad. Still a hole on the southeast. Still looks to be 70 knots...
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#368 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:31 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:The 5-day cone shows Epsilon on a track toward Puerto Rico:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I know, I know, it will likely be gone long before then.


Don't sell the farm on that! :wink:
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#369 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Dec 04, 2005 8:40 pm

well...


we are seeing the lowering of the intensity without any good reason
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#370 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:19 pm

Image
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#371 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:35 pm

Take this one, it won't reload:

Image
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#372 Postby Scorpion » Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:43 pm

Convection looks deeper.
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#373 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:54 pm

Scorpion wrote:Convection looks deeper.


Yep and wrapping around the center again...
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#374 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:01 pm

THe thing is becoming better organized in the nhc down the winds 5 knots??? Are they trying to cover this #$# I think so!
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#375 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:03 pm

I don't see any breaks in the eye wall at all yeah theres breaks in the deeper convection around the eye but theres still convection all the way around.
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#376 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:06 pm

I say that the Intensity forcasts for this storm needs to be thrown out all togiether since this thing hasn't been following any of the forcasts! They should just take it one advisory at a time and not try to forcast the intensity until it gets close to land if it does! lol
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#377 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:06 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:I don't see any breaks in the eye wall at all yeah theres breaks in the deeper convection around the eye but theres still convection all the way around.


There was a break, but convection is wrapping around the center again.
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#378 Postby WindRunner » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:15 pm

Dvoraks should be going up to 4.5 again shortly, looking good now.
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#379 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:31 pm

By the way, the advisory at 10 PM was Epsilon's # 23. Delta only had 20!
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#380 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:54 pm

brunota2003 wrote:NO, Finding Nemo...!!!


The Incredible Mr. Limpet!
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