91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

mtm4319 · #361 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:53 pm

Warren Madden on TWC just said there was a north wind report just west of Havelock, so "maybe a weak surface reflection". He seemed to play it off though.

#362 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:54 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Warren Madden on TWC just said there was a north wind report just west of Havelock, so "maybe a weak surface reflection". He seemed to play it off though.

Where is Havelock?

mtm4319 · #363 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:56 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Warren Madden on TWC just said there was a north wind report just west of Havelock, so "maybe a weak surface reflection". He seemed to play it off though.

Where is Havelock?

#364 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:57 pm

Ok thanks.

HurricaneHunter914 · #365 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:58 pm

If this can get back over water could this become Beryl?

WindRunner · #366 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:59 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Warren Madden on TWC just said there was a north wind report just west of Havelock, so "maybe a weak surface reflection". He seemed to play it off though.

Right now that's currently reporting an ENE wind, so I think that's why he's playing it off.

Past hour reports of winds from 150, 110, and 120. No north winds there.

#367 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:04 pm

Well 91L appears onshore and caught up in Southeasterly winds that are present all along the entire Eastern Seaboard, I doubt conditions will be favorable for it to turn into Beryl.

mtm4319 · #368 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:04 pm

WindRunner wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Warren Madden on TWC just said there was a north wind report just west of Havelock, so "maybe a weak surface reflection". He seemed to play it off though.

Right now that's currently reporting an ENE wind, so I think that's why he's playing it off.

Past hour reports of winds from 150, 110, and 120. No north winds there.

Hmm... yeah, I doubted it too, but they showed a graphic with arrows for wind directions and all that, and it was like :darrow:

. I couldn't find a north wind at any of the NWS reporting stations in the area, either.

storms NC · #369 Postby **storms NC** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:05 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:If this can get back over water could this become Beryl?

The waters are to cold for that to happen. This is just about all we would get for the month of June for us here in NC.

Seele · #370 Postby **Seele** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:11 pm

hurricanefloyd5 · #371 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:22 pm

beryl i hope!!!!!!!!!!!!

Website · #372 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:36 pm

5:30pm TWO:

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVESTIGATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY MOVED INLAND NEAR MOREHEAD CITY BEFORE IT
COULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PRODUCING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

Thunder44 · #373 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:40 pm

I think this is the end of the line for 91L.

Derek Ortt · #374 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:48 pm

very similar to a disturbance about a year ago that affected the same region... couldn't quite close off before making landfall

#375 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:53 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I think this is the end of the line for 91L.

No it's not. this thing is going to enhance the rainfall across the mid-Atlantic. Major flooding is expected in the Delaware and Susquehanna basins, with my local river, the Susquehanna expected to crest at 25 feet. It is comparable to the 1996 snowmelt floods and the 2004 Ivan floods. And since I'm in the floodplain, I'm preparing to evacuate tomorrow evening.

#376 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:very similar to a disturbance about a year ago that affected the same region... couldn't quite close off before making landfall

366 days ago to be exact...This is a completely different situation. Last year, it did close off. They just decided not to classify it.

An email I sent to the NHC about it last year:

NHC,
I am writing you hoping that someone can explain the reasoning behind the tropical low that struck NC not being classified. I have compiled notes below:

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-neusplot.php

Buoys and C-man stations have shown almost perfect LLC for many hours
(see link above). NWS is stating that this system has raised the dewpoint to the lower 70s and shows its tropical nature. 43 mph wind gusts (even at 143 feet CHLV2) and 38 mph 1-min winds...Pressure gradient is at least 6mb over a distance of less than 60 Nautical Miles to the N and over 3 mbs 40 miles to the South. The air temperature has risen for the last 4 hours (C-Man Station CHLV2) as the center approached in spite of the natural cooling of this time of day (much lower sun angle). Why can't this thing be classified?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chlv2
As the center approached:
26/21 CHLV2 36.9 -75.6 21.7 050 23 G 26 060 29 1017.8 -1.9 CHLV2
26/22 CHLV2 36.9 -75.6 21.7 050 29 G 33 050 33 1016.8 -2.6 CHLV2
26/23 CHLV2 36.9 -75.6 21.6 040 31 G 34 040 36 1015.8 -2.9 CHLV2
27/00 CHLV2 36.9 -75.6 21.9 050 25 G 29 050 37 1015.6 -2.2 CHLV2

It has also continued to sustain convection!! (albeit removed from LLC
now)
The NHC definition of a TC:

A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale
low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation

1. non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system **Check

2. tropical or sub-tropical waters **Check

3. with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) **Check

4. definite cyclonic surface wind circulation **Check

Am I missing anything?

#377 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:10 pm

Upon passage of lowest pressure...what did we have a winds shift out of the SW

2005 06 26 22 00 53 14.8 17.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.8 21.7 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 23 00 38 16.1 17.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.8 21.6 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 00 00 45 13.0 14.7 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.6 21.9 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 01 00 96 10.7 12.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.7 22.3 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 02 00 114 8.5 9.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.5 22.0 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 03 00 210 7.7 8.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.7 21.9 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 04 00 222 11.8 12.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.7 22.1 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 05 00 222 13.2 14.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.2 21.9 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00
2005 06 27 06 00 223 11.7 12.3 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1017.4 21.9 999.0 999.0 99.0 99.00

WindRunner · #378 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:11 pm

Did you ever get a response to your email?

Derek Ortt · #379 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:11 pm

recon investigated that system as well... and they also were unable to find a closed circulation with it. I remember that one well as I was in the office that Saturday and Sunday. It was very close, but not 100% closed

WindRunner · #380 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:12 pm

Is a radar signature not good enough for proof of a closed LLC?

91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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