Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[seaswing]

Do you think a TS by 5 a.m.?

[JonathanBelles]

maybe

[rnbaida]

I think we might have a TS by 11pm...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

[Stormcenter]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

It makes you wonder if it's going to encounter shear in the GOM and prevent it from strengthening much.

[rnbaida]

does anyone think the GFDL is the most correct model right now?

[Stormcenter]

I was just thinking of the Katrina anniversary.I have an awful feeling soon to be Ernesto will take a similar track and pretty dang close to the date (Aug.31/Sept1 )

This should not be another Katrina but then a hurricane is a hurricane so it doesn't have to be a Cat.3,4 or 5 to cause trouble for someone.

[JTD]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

Very interesting Just as the GFS failed to initialize Chris, it is failing to initialize TD #5 as well.

Chris 2?

[Extremeweatherguy]

does anyone think the GFDL is the most correct model right now?

no..

I don't trust any model right now. Instead, I am listening more to the pro mets and NHC. I think they have a better handle on things ATM.

[Bailey1777]

I think our pro-mets using information and their intellect are the model I would use.

[Stormcenter]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

Very interesting Just as the GFS failed to initialize Chris, they are failing to initialize TD #5 as well.

Chris 2?

Chris 2 would be nice.

[Scorpion]

Very interesting Just as the GFS failed to initialize Chris, they are failing to initialize TD #5 as well.

Chris 2?

I strongly doubt that. The envelope of circulation is much bigger than Chris. With Chris it seemed to be just one lone system in a sea of dry air.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the GFDL, the storm looks to be oriented towards the northeast. Big Bend?

Please read my posts on why the GFDL is hosed.

It's hosed. It sees shear and thinks its steering flow.

Remember 2 days ago when it had it east of PR?

The BAMM models are also pretty much in line with the GFDL through the point in which you are speaking with steering by the ULL. It could be that the slowing trend we are seeing is in response to a weakening of the ridge to its north and that it does allow it to make more of this northerly turn. Could you be missing that possibility?

[Brent]

Very interesting Just as the GFS failed to initialize Chris, they are failing to initialize TD #5 as well.

Chris 2?

I strongly doubt that. The envelope of circulation is much bigger than Chris. With Chris it seemed to be just one lone system in a sea of dry air.

Yeah that. This is not Chris.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

Very interesting Just as the GFS failed to initialize Chris, it is failing to initialize TD #5 as well.

Chris 2?

It's possible, but then again this is an 18Z run. I would wait until tomorrow's 0Z and 12Z before calling this one another Chris.

BTW: shear looks better for this one than with Chris which leads me to believe a similar death is not in the cards. IMO this will not be Chris repeat.

[johngaltfla]

I would say we have a tropical storm. NRL has just renamed it 05L_NONAME...

[Scorpion]

I would say we have a tropical storm. NRL has just renamed it 05L_NONAME...

Noname means TD.

[Aquawind]

Still rather lopsided ATM but some deep convection continues to fire very near the LLC.

[Brent]

I would say we have a tropical storm. NRL has just renamed it 05L_NONAME...

That means it's a TD. If it changes to 05L_ERNESTO then that will mean it's a storm.

[Stratosphere747]

Try not to keep quoting and quoting other posts. Especially when it is so busy. To many viable comments by the pros continue to get buried!!