Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[HURAKAN]

Down to 45mph per latest advisory...............

It was expected as it interacts with the Sierra Maestra, the mountains in SE Cuba.

[ronjon]

Here are the steering currents today and 24 hrs ago for a weak TS.

Current

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

24 hrs ago

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-8.html

[Sanibel]

Today will tell as we watch where Ernesto emerges from Cuba.

[HURAKAN]

Your graphic shows Ernesto just about to hit Cuba's eastern portion. The interesting thing here is that there is absolutely nothing about this storm in the Cuban media; at least, not in http://www.granma.cu . Do they know what's coming, or is this an instance of controlled media censorship? In any case, it seems that Cuba is going to feel some effects from the storm.

I BELIEVE YOU'RE WRONG!!!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

What is the little anti-cyclone forming at 22N 82W?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Getting its act together?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[cpdaman]

it seems like ernesto's SE side is finally able to breathe again as it is over water (away from haitian infuence) while the nw part is now over cuba

[Blown Away]

I'm estimating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

[tgenius]

Getting its act together?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

That image makes it seem like COC is to east a bit (the lil pinhole "eye" looking thing.) No it's not a Hurricane eye

[gatorcane]

I'm estamating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

Yep but just MAYBE, JUsT MAYBE, it misses SE Florida to the east

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm estamating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

Yep but just MAYBE, JUsT MAYBE, it misses SE Florida to the east

Just taking the path of least resistance....Models are in too much agreement now...Models 48 hrs out are usually dead on...It won't go thru that bump in the ridge....But Stranger crap has happened..

[rnbaida]

so will it strengthen more than it should?

[Sanibel]

Models predict near perfect vertical overhead conditions as Ernesto exits Cuba leaving strong redevelopment over Gulf Stream a real possibility. Category 3 on Keys not out of question.

Track is now over center of southern tip of Florida and east of us. Everglades after going over eastern Keys.

[cpdaman]

thanks for that graphic mr hurricane how could i get a more updated picture off that view

because

1. that shows a center ese of where it seems now, which to me would indicate it is moving more wnw/nw 310 degreeish and may spend more time over cuba

[Eyes2theSkies]

If it regains hurricane status and goes over south florida, could it continue to strengthen over the everglades? It would still be over very warm water...

[cpdaman]

blown away he may be moving in more of a 310 degree heading (where a change in as much as 10 degrees in heading could mean the difference of 12 hours over cuba ( if it feels the ridge a hair later) and your scenario plays out S FL will be responding rather late and chaotically to a dangerous storm IMO

[DESTRUCTION5]

If it regains hurricane status and goes over south florida, could it continue to strengthen over the everglades? It would still be over very warm water...

Probably just won't weaken..

[edbri871]

I believe Hurricanes need atleast 8-10 feet of warm water for developement. The everglades are swamps.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I've noticed the navy site only updates slowly. I don't know where to get those kinds of photos anywhere else.

[tgenius]

If it regains hurricane status and goes over south florida, could it continue to strengthen over the everglades? It would still be over very warm water...

Probably just won't weaken..

Katrina slightly strengthend over the Glades...