ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Recon will confirm the exact position.

[Scorpion]

Wow - 60 - that's a stretch, though I guess their leaning on it getting better orgainzed later on - it isn't at present...

That's funny because the NHC said it was getting better organized?

[Derek Ortt]

Wow - 60 - that's a stretch, though I guess their leaning on it getting better orgainzed later on - it isn't at present...

I do not see them calling it that if the winds were not there....good grief.

It is a common practice to use inflated winds. The 11 A.M. discussion ADMITTED that the recon winds did nto justify 50KT. They kept it at 50KT because their forecast was for it to quickly reach 50KT. Continuity reasons

Also, they kept Jeanne as a cat 2 operationally when it was east of the Bahamas, when recon only justified 65-70KT. The reaosn was it was expected to re-intensify and lowering the winds would bring about complacency

[Steve Cosby]

I do not see a center at that location, I see the center at 19.0N 74.1W on 1km visible imagery

NHC location: Pressure observations or wind observations based maybe?

[Frank2]

kurtpage,

I just mentioned that since it's probably more for continuity than having them go up and down from advisory to advisory, rather than lower it to 50 and then up again at the next advisory - some call it "smoothed data"...

I once worked there (longer ago than I care to mention), so, I said it with all due respect...

Frank

[Frank2]

Oops - I didn't see Derek's comments which said the same about continuity - guess too many of my posts spoil the soup..

LOL

[kurtpage]

THE LAST AERIAL
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
THAT INTENSITY BY NOW.

I know that they do that..but here is the reason...

[Frank2]

convergencezone,

Okay, I'm so confused. We have some people saying that the storm is looking better organized and others saying that it's being ripped apart into nothing....Which one is it???

It all depends on who's posting the comment - just our own opinions here (with input from the professional folks)...

Frank

[MGC]

Let the panic begin. I was listening to the radio this morning and Gus is the talk of the town. Louisiana might begin evacs starting Saturday. We are going to gas up all the 5 gallon tanks we had left over from Katrina. Gas after Katrina was impossible to find, we used it as currency to get some thing done after the hurricane. Not liking the NHC path at all. Do I have any takers?.......MGC

[Frank2]

MGC,

Don't forget that each case is different - 2005 wasn't 2008, as much as 2008 isn't 2005...

[Stormcenter]

Help me out here folks. It is just me (very possible ) or does Gustav
continue to look like a very disorganized storm. Something is just not right
with it. It also looks like it's not even moving at 5mph.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

convergencezone,

Okay, I'm so confused. We have some people saying that the storm is looking better organized and others saying that it's being ripped apart into nothing....Which one is it???

It all depends on who's posting the comment - just our own opinions here (with input from the professional folks)...

Frank

well, maybe you are right in that it is getting ripped apart to nothing then.....I guess we'll have to wait until the next report to see if we have an open wave or a depression, but I just don't see it being a wave or depression right now. I still think it's a strong tropical storm regardless, but perhaps I'm the one who's wrong...

[Derek Ortt]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

[oyster_reef]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

Open Wave?

[ColdFusion]

Help me out here folks. It is just me (very possible ) or does Gustav
continue to look like a very disorganized storm. Something is just not right
with it. It also looks like it's not even moving at 5mph.

Forecast is for a slow re-organization. Not in a great spot right now, but forecasted to be in a day or so. Don't expect to see any big improvement in structure today.

[ConvergenceZone]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

perhaps you are right Derek and Gustav has done all of the damage it's going to do and it's just an open wave or depression right now...and then we nothing to worry about...Crossing fingers for next report. Perhaps by this time tomorrow there won't be anything to look at then...

[CrazyC83]

If it is an open wave, then that would be a dream come true for everyone downstream...unless of course it redevelops. Lili was able to redevelop...

[ConvergenceZone]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

Open Wave?

they may issue a special advisory again if it's just an open wave....and if so, watch this busy thread dwindle down to nothing....

[Scorpion]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

perhaps you are right Derek and Gustav has done all of the damage it's going to do and it's just an open wave or depression right now...and then we nothing to worry about...Crossing fingers for next report. Perhaps by this time tomorrow there won't be anything to look at then...

Yes, a hurricane is going to degenerate into an open wave because it skirted Hispaniola. This board is hilarious at times.

[ColdFusion]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

perhaps you are right Derek and Gustav has done all of the damage it's going to do and it's just an open wave or depression right now...and then we nothing to worry about...Crossing fingers for next report. Perhaps by this time tomorrow there won't be anything to look at then...

Wish I were that optimistic.