ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

[Highteeld]

CDO is warming. I do wonder if it is a bit weaker now vs 1 hr ago.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Sonde measured 144 knots in NE eyewall

[Frank P]

Dudes its 918 mb and winds of 165 mph.. per NHC

Plane hasn’t made a center pass yet. That’s an estimate in the absence of data

4:30 PM CDT Tue Oct 8
Min pressure: 905 mb
Max sustained: 165 mp

My prediction was 910 mb and 160 mph... still close... winds should continue to increase I would assume as they catch up to the pressure drops.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Drop has 908mb with 34kt.

That's probably where the 905mb came from.

[aspen]

SE eye drop surprisingly only had 113 kt surface winds (926mb level), despite 160 kt winds at 920mb.

[Keldeo1997]

Feels like this is becoming an Ian repeat. Storm coming further South then forecasted making feel much less shear.

[Visioen]

Maybe I just missed it, but is there a *Sticky* for live news, advisories, etc?

I get all my hurricane news here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

They usually have the scoop.

[tropicwatch]

Winds along the west coast of Florida are currently out of the east. Once they switch to the south and southwest, lookout.

[Zonacane]

SE eye drop surprisingly only had 113 kt surface winds (926mb level), despite 160 kt winds at 920mb.

Looks like that sonde failed and rotated into a different part of the eye

[canetoad]

Updated Live Potential Surge map.

https://i.ibb.co/515xFRQ/storm-surge.jpg

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

For Tampa, high tide is 5:51 AM Wednesday morning, them again at 6:50 AM Thursday morning. Low tide 2:19 PM in between those two.

So if it hits overnight or predawn Thursday as NHC NOAA currently seems to have it, it'll be coming in during a climbing tide that has been rising for 12 hours and is only a few hours off peak

[ConvergenceZone]

Updated Live Potential Surge map.

https://i.ibb.co/515xFRQ/storm-surge.jpg

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

Honestly I'm not sure and since I'm not expert in the matter, I don't want to speculate.
If you go to the below link though, it's updated as fast as the NHC updates it. The colors take a few seconds to load though and you can zoom in as well.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

[sponger]

Updated Live Potential Surge map.

https://i.ibb.co/515xFRQ/storm-surge.jpg

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

For Tampa, high tide is 5:51 AM Wednesday morning, them again at 6:50 AM Thursday morning. Low tide 2:19 PM in between those two

Well at least it does not line up with the eye coming ashore. Unfortunately North Fl is 230 am ish
Thursday morning. That could easily get to the upper end of the forecast of 5 feet. A worth while tradeoff.

[Meteorcane]

SE eye drop surprisingly only had 113 kt surface winds (926mb level), despite 160 kt winds at 920mb.

Looks like that sonde failed and rotated into a different part of the eye

Yeah I wouldn't expect NNE low-lvl winds in the SE eyewall

[Flwxguy86]

The last hour and a half it looks to have wobbled back North and left of track. Anyone else notice that?

Looks to have offset the ese motion. We'll see if it keeps up that way.

If you are looking at the WFLA wobble tracker, They corrected the track to the 5pm advisory, I wish they'd show how far off it is based on the previous run.

[Nederlander]

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

For Tampa, high tide is 5:51 AM Wednesday morning, them again at 6:50 AM Thursday morning. Low tide 2:19 PM in between those two

Well at least it does not line up with the eye coming ashore. Unfortunately North Fl is 230 am ish
Thursday morning. That could easily get to the upper end of the forecast of 5 feet. A worth while tradeoff.

It's actually kind of worse case scenario on timing... eyewall will be approaching the coast as the tide is nearing high tide

[Nederlander]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

My goodness she is pretty!

... he

[caneman]

After the dip ESE he appears to be on NE heading for the last couple of hours and still west of forecast point. This lends credence to ICON. Anyone else notice it? Am I the only one noticing this?

[Charleswachal]

vortex message shows 10 mile eye which is at the upper limit of what is considered pinhole. This may wind up becoming more of a pinhole as the day progresses

[Bocadude85]

After the dip ESE he appears to be on NE heading for the last couple of hours and still west of forecast point. This lends credence to ICON. Anyone else notice it? Am I the only one noticing this?

Looks to be stair stepping, seems to be wobbling back east again.