Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Texas Snow]

ICON has heavy frz rain from Austin College Station down to Houston early Sunday morning

At what surface temps, generally? Too heavy of rain warms the surface (as you know).

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2026012200/084/sfct-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2026012200/084/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

Thanks. I did find it on Pivotal. When I asked it wasn’t on TT yet. I should have checked there first before asking.

That certainly would be cold enough.

[snownado]

Now THAT we can all agree we don't want. Epic disaster there. Yuck. Possibly enough for roof damage.

Although I will say, those Freezing Rain QPF maps can be misleading.

All they shows is how much rain falls when the air temp is 32*F or below. A lot (or even majority) of that won't actually translate to ice accretion between the heavy precipitation rates and temps likely remaining marginal for much of Saturday.

I don’t think temps are going to remain marginal for much of Saturday? Especially over the northern half of the state

Most of the models (EURO remaining the big exception, and discounting the outlier UKMET) show the precipitation will have transitioned to sleet during the daytime on Saturday in North Texas.

And at least for DFW proper, many of the models also keep the air temp in the 30-32*F range.

[orangeblood]

North Texas would become an ice skating rink for several days if this came even close to verifying . Likely underdone looking at latest model output

[dhweather]

And of course, the 00z NAM pushes a big fat dry slot in by 12z Sunday, with the storm being effectively over...

The max temp in the column is still above freezing at this time, BTW.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/4ggH0hMs/Screenshot-2026-01-21-205307.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/sJHSqy18/Screenshot-2026-01-21-205414.png [/url]

In the words of the legend FWD Dennis Cavanaugh, follow the vorticity!

[HockeyTx82]

Yeah, since we often get sleet around here, I will honestly take anything that's relatively white at this point. I would much prefer snow, but 4 inches of sleet will look like snow. Good enough for me. Just will make driving hell.

I really fail to understand the appeal of sleet.

I mean, if it happens, then obviously it is what it is since none of us can control the weather. And I understand the allure to the extent that winter weather overall is uncommon in North Texas. But literally the only redeeming quality to sleet in particular is that it's not freezing rain. Everything else about it sucks (and it's easily a close 2nd worst weather type I can think of), and I just can't convince myself to enjoy it or be happy about it.

But that's just me.

Get a good layer and you can sort of ice skate on it the road right infront of your house once it compacts! Hockeytx did, posted a vid too! No need for lakes!

Ha, you remember that video! Man that was a long time ago, I skated the streets of Denton. Or are you talking my Ponder video from a yearish ago? Yeah so I'll definitely be posting another one with my son as he has skates now. Both of them will be out there with me, although the yoinger one (8) does not have skates just yet.

If the roads ice over be for sure on the lookout for HockeyTx82 on the streets.

I also pulled my kids on an old 1950's Radio Flyer sled behind me with a rope on my waist as I ice skated down the streets in the neighborhood, they had a blast.

[HockeyTx82]

It's nights like tonight where I'm glad I'm a member of this board and care about the weather. I went to Costco to pick up a few random things, that weren't relevant for my preparation, and let me tell you they were completely out of toilet paper and water, completely cleaned out. Other shelves were empty as well, bread completely gone.

I did my shopping Monday and there was no panic and everything was fully stocked.

[iorange55]

Although I will say, those Freezing Rain QPF maps can be misleading.

All they shows is how much rain falls when the air temp is 32*F or below. A lot (or even majority) of that won't actually translate to ice accretion between the heavy precipitation rates and temps likely remaining marginal for much of Saturday.

I don’t think temps are going to remain marginal for much of Saturday? Especially over the northern half of the state

Most of the models (EURO remaining the big exception, and discounting the outlier UKMET) show the precipitation will have transitioned to sleet during the daytime on Saturday in North Texas.

And at least for DFW proper, many of the models also keep the air temp in the 30-32*F range.

During the day/night on Saturday? I’m seeing it in the 20s

[snownado]

I don’t think temps are going to remain marginal for much of Saturday? Especially over the northern half of the state

Most of the models (EURO remaining the big exception, and discounting the outlier UKMET) show the precipitation will have transitioned to sleet during the daytime on Saturday in North Texas.

And at least for DFW proper, many of the models also keep the air temp in the 30-32*F range.

During the day/night on Saturday? I’m seeing it in the 20s

The NAM and EURO keeps temps in the 30-32*F range during the daytime Saturday for DFW.

The GFS has been considerably colder though.

[bubba hotep]

Through 45h, not much change on the 00z GFS with the 500mb low, but some changes to the orientation of the trailing s/w.

ETA: Freezing line is advancing southward a bit faster vs. 18z

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

Yeah, since we often get sleet around here, I will honestly take anything that's relatively white at this point. I would much prefer snow, but 4 inches of sleet will look like snow. Good enough for me. Just will make driving hell.

I really fail to understand the appeal of sleet.

I mean, if it happens, then obviously it is what it is since none of us can control the weather. And I understand the allure to the extent that winter weather overall is uncommon in North Texas. But literally the only redeeming quality to sleet in particular is that it's not freezing rain. Everything else about it sucks (and it's easily a close 2nd worst weather type I can think of), and I just can't convince myself to enjoy it or be happy about it.

But that's just me.

Kinda how I feel about Sooners. Sleet isn’t freezing rain, Sooners aren’t Longhorns. I get it!

[Harp.1]

Gfs looks pretty much the same

[orangeblood]

Gfs looks pretty much the same

Yep, no major changes

For DFW, for those that remember …this appears to be the Dec 2013 cobblestone ice debacle on steroids. Roads will be really difficult to almost impossible to drive on if you have 1/4-1/2” ice below 4-6” of sleet

[bubba hotep]

Juiced to the max QPF on the 00z GFS

[wxman22]

The 0z GFS has the storm lasting through noon Sunday.

[snownado]

00z GFS did trend towards the NAM / EURO in the upper levels, but still remains on the colder side with the ground temps.

No meaningful changes from the previous runs in terms of precip types and amounts for our region.

[Texas Snow]

North Texas would become an ice skating rink for several days if this came even close to verifying . Likely underdone looking at latest model output

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIce.jpg

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg

Where do you find these NWS accumulation graphics? I don’t see them on their webpage, Facebook, or X.

[bubba hotep]

Juiced to the max QPF on the 00z GFS

https://m1l.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012200/090/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Nearly 2" of that falls across DFW with temps dropping through the 20s into the teens.

[Gotwood]

Juiced to the max QPF on the 00z GFS

https://m1l.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012200/090/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yeah fortunately it looks like the first wave will be all rain if the temps are correct on the GFS.

[orangeblood]

North Texas would become an ice skating rink for several days if this came even close to verifying . Likely underdone looking at latest model output

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIce.jpg

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg

Where do you find these NWS accumulation graphics? I don’t see them on their webpage, Facebook, or X.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/winter

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS looks like dec 2013 on steroids with an inch or two of snow to cap things off in north Texas. Can’t say I’d feel short-changed with that outcome. As much as this would be dangerous to drive in, I would think this would be good for keeping power outages lower since it won’t accrete on power lines like ice and doesn’t clump up in trees like snow.