ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

The only question is when it snaps into cyclonic form or if it continues to drag out like this?

[Smurfwicked]

If this does even cross the yucatan I think it does so North of 20 N. It is certainly moving more northerly this morning.

I was waiting on some one to agree with we me on that. I still think its going clip the peninsula tho just much more closer to the tip.

[coreyl]

If this does even cross the yucatan I think it does so North of 20 N. It is certainly moving more northerly this morning.

I was waiting on some one to agree with we me on that. I still think its going clip the peninsula tho just much more closer to the tip.

I hope that doesn't happen because then it could go more towards Louisiana/Mississippi then.

[canetracker]

Ineresting flare up around 81W and 19N

[HURAKAN]

It has the look, but does it have the LLC?

[Bane]

i hope it never develops.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST

7:50 am ESE ( 116 deg ) 34.4 kts
7:40 am ESE ( 120 deg ) 33.6 kts
7:30 am SE ( 126 deg ) 36.1 kts
7:20 am SE ( 128 deg ) 35.5 kts
7:10 am SE ( 130 deg ) 33.8 kts
7:00 am SE ( 127 deg ) 34.0 kts

[poof121]

When do the new Dvorak numbers from SSD and such come out so we can see if they progging the center under that deep convection?

[CourierPR]

Soon I think, we'll be singing, "You're lookin' swell, Dolly. I can tell Dolly. You're still glowin', you're still growin', you're still goin' strong".

[Derek Ortt]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

[Smurfwicked]

I hope that doesn't happen because then it could go more towards Louisiana/Mississippi then.

In my opinion right now it looks to me that the Tex-Mex border hit is about the farthest southwest track possible. Yet, I really can't see it going as far east as the Mississippi, but like Derek has said its too soon to tell where it might go once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico

[Chacor]

Here we go

File: invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al042008.ren 6 KB 7/20/08 1:13:00 PM

[WmE]

Here we go

File: invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al042008.ren 6 KB 7/20/08 1:13:00 PM

Hello Dolly??!

[cycloneye]

Best Track! 35kts

AL, 04, 2008072006, , BEST, 0, 165N, 822W, 35, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 0,

[Starburst]

yep Dolly has arrived 42 mph winds

[lrak]

Here we go

File: invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al042008.ren 6 KB 7/20/08 1:13:00 PM

[dwg71]

Am I the only one that thinks it looks worse now than 5 hours ago. Out side of flair up of convection well NE of broad center, cloud tops seem to be warming.

[Derek Ortt]

When do the new Dvorak numbers from SSD and such come out so we can see if they progging the center under that deep convection?

it means nothing what SSD says. Recon found the center

[Ed Mahmoud]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

Well, in my unprofessional opinion, there is a scientific answer, and a course of least regret answer.


With 35 knot buoy measured winds, and any kind of circulation, even poorly organized with deepest convection displaced, course of least regret is initiate advisories and post warnings for the Yucatan, I'd think.



Note that although I'd like to be King of the World, I'm not, and my own opinions and $1.08 will buy me a 99 cent double cheeseburger off the value menu at McDonalds.

[Chacor]

Best Track! 35kts

AL, 04, 2008072006, , BEST, 0, 165N, 822W, 35, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 0,

That entry is from six hours ago. It's been 35 kts for over 12 hours now.