ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[Riptide]

The GFS was actually correct in that the convection, at least, is racing off to the northeast. However, Debby's center was left behind in the Gulf. Storms rarely recover from this. Obs offshore suggest that Debby's winds are generally around 25 to 30 kts now.

She will be sitting over water for the next three days, and there is not much of a chance to reorganize? Tropical weather is so surprising and interesting, that I can understand why people choose to do it for a living. It is a real intellectual challenge to predict.

This is a good point and it's interesting to note that the Euro was forecasting the loss of intensity only to reanimate Debby when she gets into the Atlantic, which is something that the NHC track does not make reference too right now.

[cycloneye]

I have to leave shortly. I will do the first pass that is comming now.

[wxman57]

SFMR obs of 34-37 kts are quite near a buoy reporting 20kts. I don't believe surface winds are higher than FL winds with no convection.

[tolakram]

I love the early morning views.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 251143
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 07 20120625
113600 2924N 08643W 8428 01490 0006 +164 //// 025028 028 034 002 01
113630 2923N 08642W 8434 01484 0007 +164 //// 025027 028 034 001 01
113700 2922N 08641W 8426 01489 0002 +169 //// 028027 028 034 003 01
113730 2921N 08639W 8433 01483 0002 +167 //// 030027 028 032 001 01
113800 2920N 08638W 8428 01488 0001 +165 //// 032028 029 034 001 01
113830 2918N 08637W 8432 01482 0002 +165 //// 030029 030 033 001 01
113900 2917N 08635W 8434 01481 9999 +169 //// 027030 030 033 002 01
113930 2916N 08634W 8427 01485 9997 +170 //// 027031 031 031 002 01
114000 2915N 08633W 8434 01478 9994 +172 //// 023030 031 033 000 01
114030 2914N 08631W 8432 01481 9993 +175 +174 022030 030 032 001 00
114100 2913N 08630W 8432 01483 9995 +171 //// 021029 029 033 001 01
114130 2912N 08629W 8429 01482 //// +165 //// 021029 029 033 003 01
114200 2910N 08627W 8434 01476 //// +163 //// 020030 030 033 003 01
114230 2909N 08626W 8429 01484 //// +164 //// 016029 029 033 003 01
114300 2908N 08625W 8432 01478 //// +170 //// 018029 029 032 002 01
114330 2907N 08623W 8431 01479 //// +170 //// 021030 031 033 000 01
114400 2906N 08622W 8430 01478 //// +175 //// 023030 030 033 002 01
114430 2905N 08621W 8433 01474 //// +175 //// 023030 030 034 001 05
114500 2903N 08619W 8432 01474 //// +179 //// 024028 028 033 001 01
114530 2902N 08618W 8429 01477 //// +176 //// 021029 030 033 001 01
$$

[JonathanBelles]

I for one will be very happy if Debby stays dead. Pinellas county had a lot more beach front property today that it did yesterday and a couple of new rivers have developed across Tampa Bay. I hope that nobody else dies today. Winds are still up here, but no rain for at least a couple hours.

[wxman57]

I notice that the plane is reporting 34-37 kts SFMR south of Mobile Bay on the latest report, though many reports are flagged. There's a buoy below the plane reporting 20 kts. Maybe they can recalibrate the SFMR while they're passing over it?

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 251143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[NDG]

First time posting in the past 24 hrs or so, I do not mean to witch hunt here, but I remember very clearly some people posting some very nasty things about the GFS and the people that updated it lately. I hope you have apologize.
I never bought the west track by the ECMWF, UKMET, NAM... but in I also doubted the NE track towards FL by the GFS, I thought that for the most part it has going to get left behind south of Mobile Bay to mouth of MS river, not this far east.
This is the year of weaknessess in the SE US, for the past month no ridge has nominated the wx in FL, it makes sense now that Debby has come so close to FL and that she could very well potentially keep moving ENE making landfall in the Big Bend area of the Peninsula.
Now we know that the ECMWF might get west bias next time we get another tropical system in the GOM. It might overdue how a tropical system interacts with a ridge.
Looking at the satellite she still looks pathetic and I am not sure that in the next 24-48 hrs she will have enough time to re-strengthen, if the GFS is correct UL conditions will get any better so there is still the chance that she will not be able to get rid of the dry air on top of her, but you never know. Meanwhile more heavy rains for the FL P at least for the next couple of days if not longer. Our Lakes really deserve it.

[cycloneye]

Mark, I have to leave now so take over the Hobs.

[johngaltfla]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Do I dare throw this out for consideration? Dissipation or perhaps weakening to a T.D. if the MLC and LLC remain separated for a prolonged period of time? Every time this storm tries to wrap around the center, it seems to burst then get sheared apart.

I did dare throw that out last night. And I'm still hoping for "poof" because it has made a mess on the West Coast of Florida, that is for certain.

[wxman57]

I've seen this a number of times in the past. The GFS did a great job in predicting where the convection associated with Debby would go. However, the strong wind shear ripped the convection away from the center, leaving it behind in the Gulf.

[Mouton]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Barometer in extreme NE Florida is dropping like a rock over the past few hours. I wonder if this storm will reform to the east. We are experiencing very heavy rain fall too.

[tolakram]

Can't, I'm at work and can only occasionally do images. I'll post what I have time for.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just covering until someone can take over for Cycloneye, who had to go:

000
URNT15 KNHC 251153
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 08 20120625
114600 2901N 08617W 8428 01476 //// +178 //// 020030 030 034 001 01
114630 2900N 08615W 8430 01472 //// +178 //// 019029 029 033 000 01
114700 2859N 08614W 8429 01471 //// +176 //// 019028 028 033 001 05
114730 2858N 08613W 8432 01450 //// +179 //// 021027 027 033 000 01
114800 2857N 08611W 8429 01459 //// +180 //// 020026 026 033 001 01
114830 2856N 08610W 8432 01461 9968 +180 +173 020024 025 032 001 00
114900 2855N 08608W 8429 01467 9970 +179 //// 015022 022 033 001 01
114930 2854N 08607W 8428 01467 9969 +180 //// 012021 022 033 000 01
115000 2853N 08605W 8431 01462 9968 +180 //// 011021 022 033 002 05
115030 2853N 08603W 8433 01460 9969 +180 //// 011020 021 033 001 01
115100 2853N 08602W 8431 01462 9965 +183 //// 017021 021 034 000 01
115130 2852N 08600W 8429 01466 9966 +183 //// 018018 019 034 001 01
115200 2852N 08558W 8429 01463 9964 +185 +184 015019 019 033 002 00
115230 2852N 08556W 8428 01465 9962 +186 +182 017016 018 033 001 00
115300 2851N 08555W 8430 01462 9962 +190 +177 020016 016 032 000 00
115330 2851N 08553W 8429 01461 9961 +187 +175 016014 015 030 001 00
115400 2850N 08551W 8430 01457 9957 +190 +170 016014 015 029 000 00
115430 2850N 08550W 8430 01455 9955 +190 +171 027013 013 028 000 03
115500 2849N 08548W 8429 01455 9951 +194 +168 033012 013 027 000 00
115530 2849N 08546W 8429 01455 9949 +195 +171 037012 012 027 001 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 251203
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 09 20120625
115600 2848N 08545W 8429 01452 9950 +193 +169 035011 012 022 002 03
115630 2847N 08543W 8435 01450 9952 +191 +171 024011 011 018 001 00
115700 2846N 08542W 8474 01410 9952 +190 +182 023009 010 016 000 00
115730 2845N 08540W 8484 01395 9950 +190 +182 027009 010 018 000 00
115800 2845N 08539W 8432 01450 9951 +188 +175 024008 009 016 000 00
115830 2844N 08537W 8442 01441 9954 +185 +178 018006 007 015 001 00
115900 2844N 08535W 8465 01421 9959 +183 //// 041006 006 015 003 05
115930 2843N 08534W 8461 01421 9955 +184 +181 048005 005 012 000 03
120000 2842N 08532W 8459 01422 9954 +185 +178 068005 005 009 002 03
120030 2841N 08531W 8461 01418 9953 +187 +173 075004 004 011 001 03
120100 2840N 08530W 8466 01412 9950 +190 +175 097003 004 013 000 03
120130 2839N 08529W 8460 01417 9946 +190 +187 146002 003 013 000 00
120200 2837N 08529W 8461 01417 9947 +188 //// 144003 003 015 000 01
120230 2837N 08529W 8461 01417 9948 +188 //// 169002 003 014 001 01
120300 2834N 08528W 8458 01417 9945 +186 //// 166003 003 014 002 05
120330 2833N 08527W 8461 01416 9942 +190 +189 174003 003 017 000 03
120400 2832N 08525W 8463 01409 9944 +186 //// 188005 007 015 001 01
120430 2831N 08524W 8462 01424 9957 +189 //// 188008 008 016 000 01
120500 2830N 08523W 8461 01437 9967 +190 +188 191009 009 017 001 00
120530 2829N 08522W 8463 01443 9975 +190 +185 202009 010 018 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon found pressure of 994.2. I'm actually surprised they found it that low at this point. With no convection in the center for the past 8 hours, I was expecting at the lowest 996.

[tolakram]

I'm done for the morning.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is the photo I used on air today, really scary stuff. Anyone in this area seen this today.