Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE and SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any real snow potential. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday.

http://wxman57.com/images/source.JPG

You are stretching here, haha. No tonight front is not Arctic but it is cold enough. Temps in the mid 30s and flurries along I30 is all we are talking for tomorrow. Mid week depends on how much the system digs. It will have likely be able to tap into the PV at least somewhat, but again not talking anything more than mid 30s. Its the end of the month front that looks to finally tap into the bitter cold of the Hudson vortex as the -NAO builds in allowing the cold to backbuild towards the Southern Plains.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z sure has some climate change on the way! Sheesh!

I think the storm coming through SE Tx is changing the pattern near Greenland and leading to more pronounced blocking. Follow it all the way up.
Still livid about this setup with no cold air for Wednesday.

[gpsnowman]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE and SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any real snow potential. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday.

http://wxman57.com/images/source.JPG

You are stretching here, haha. No tonight front is not Arctic but it is cold enough. Temps in the mid 30s and flurries along I30 is all we are talking for tomorrow. Mid week depends on how much the system digs. It will have likely be able to tap into the PV at least somewhat, but again not talking anything more than mid 30s. Its the end of the month front that looks to finally tap into the bitter cold of the Hudson vortex as the -NAO builds in allowing the cold to backbuild towards the Southern Plains.

I do not want to start a firestorm here but isn't that a characteristic of the McFarland Sig? Backbuilding into the southern plains creating the "backwards S" look with the proper blocking? In no way am I calling for something of that magnitude, just wanted a better understanding of it.

[Ralph's Weather]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE and SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any real snow potential. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday.

http://wxman57.com/images/source.JPG

You are stretching here, haha. No tonight front is not Arctic but it is cold enough. Temps in the mid 30s and flurries along I30 is all we are talking for tomorrow. Mid week depends on how much the system digs. It will have likely be able to tap into the PV at least somewhat, but again not talking anything more than mid 30s. Its the end of the month front that looks to finally tap into the bitter cold of the Hudson vortex as the -NAO builds in allowing the cold to backbuild towards the Southern Plains.

I do not want to start a firestorm here but isn't that a characteristic of the McFarland Sig? Backbuilding into the southern plains creating the "backwards S" look with the proper blocking? In no way am I calling for something of that magnitude, just wanted a better understanding of it.

I'm far from an expert on McFarland sigs but in an El Nino I expect it to more be a way to tap into the STJ without pulling in so much warm Gulf air than a hard freeze into Mexico type situation. All possibilities are on the table though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE and SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any real snow potential. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday.

http://wxman57.com/images/source.JPG

Or 10 days from now for that matter. The euro has been horrible all winter 7-10 days out and the 18z gfs run, well most of us know what to think about that.

[Captmorg70]

May have to set the alarm to look outside the window at 6am or so tomorrow. Maybe some snow flurries

[Texas Snow]

Looking between models I would suggest 5:00 to be safe. I was considering offering someone money or beer to wake up and call me if its snowing and if its not I’ll sleep till 9:00

[Texas Snow]

Looking between models I would suggest 5:00 to be safe. I was considering offering someone pizza or beer to wake up and call me if its snowing and if its not I’ll sleep till 9:00.

Maybe we can get one of those phone tree thingies going. Who’s first?

[AubreyStorm]

I’m ready tomorrow morning! SNOW TIME

[AubreyStorm]

Looking between models I would suggest 5:00 to be safe. I was considering offering someone money or beer to wake up and call me if its snowing and if its not I’ll sleep till 9:00

I will call you! I live here in Denton

[Captmorg70]

Looking between models I would suggest 5:00 to be safe. I was considering offering someone pizza or beer to wake up and call me if its snowing and if its not I’ll sleep till 9:00.

Maybe we can get one of those phone tree thingies going. Who’s first?

Or maybe stay up till 3 and decide if I should go to bed or brew coffee

[gpsnowman]

My workweek alarm goes off at 3:30 in the morning and on off days my body clock wakes me up around 5. I will set my alarm just in case. Can't miss any snow falling.

[missygirl810]

I am thinking of getting up at 4 just in case lol

[Captmorg70]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

[Ntxw]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

It is essentially a band of fairly moderate QPF. Won't last long maybe an hour's worth that quickly moves through between 4-6AM depending on location. It shows the upper column sufficiently cold for a changeover especially north of I-20 despite ground temperatures above freezing. Wise, Denton, Collin counties northward likely sees more, perhaps a dusting on the run (this is not going to be 10:1).

Now if you're looking for a surprise that maybe last a little longer we would hope for the ULL to be stronger and able to create more lift than any model currently indicates.

[Captmorg70]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

It is essentially a band of fairly moderate QPF. Won't last long maybe an hour's worth that quickly moves through between 4-6AM depending on location. It shows the upper column sufficiently cold for a changeover especially north of I-20 despite ground temperatures above freezing. Wise, Denton, Collin counties northward likely sees more, perhaps a dusting on the run (this is not going to be 10:1).

Thanks. That’s what it looked like but had weird look to it. Guess I’m staying up tonight

[missygirl810]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

For this newbie, does 00Z mean midnight? Sorry to ask lol

[spencer817]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

It is essentially a band of fairly moderate QPF. Won't last long maybe an hour's worth that quickly moves through between 4-6AM depending on location. It shows the upper column sufficiently cold for a changeover especially north of I-20 despite ground temperatures above freezing. Wise, Denton, Collin counties northward likely sees more, perhaps a dusting on the run (this is not going to be 10:1).

Thanks. That’s what it looked like but had weird look to it. Guess I’m staying up tonight

The RAPid has some intense snowfall rates over DFW hour 11, if it verifies it'll be worth it to watch that come thru!

[spencer817]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

For this newbie, does 00Z mean midnight? Sorry to ask lol

11z is around the time the banding feature would come thru, so about 5 am

[missygirl810]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

For this newbie, does 00Z mean midnight? Sorry to ask lol

11z is around the time the banding feature would come thru, so about 5 am

Thanks!!!!