ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

It's stair stepping. Took a jog E of its previous motion, now it seems to be correcting over land and heading dead west. the mean storm motion remains mostly unchanged as I see it

[EquusStorm]

I think we're about to see what Fay could have done had she not insisted on staying on land for 90% of the track; seems kinda like a cousin.

[cfisher]

Seeing a jump to the north coast is a distinct possibility as that convective burst moves over water.

I doubt there's enough low level vorticity to support it

[Kingarabian]

Always good to see how Dvorak is doing with recon in the system. So far it's doing pretty good.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2020 Time : 235021 UTC
Lat : 21:59:59 N Lon : 82:56:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 992.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -37.5C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

[eastcoastFL]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

Would you say its a fairly low lying area? Do they have construction code in LA like here in S.Fl where they build homes with cement block mostly?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298055296401780736

[eastcoastFL]

The 8PM EST Advisory still shows this a TC at 2PM EST tomorrow. I thought that they would have had it as a hurricane by then. I know it has to go over another strip of land in Cuba, but won't be surprised if she's a hurricane prior to then.

I'm not sure if they update that on intermediate advisories but I could be wrong. At 11pm it might be different.

[Nederlander]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298055296401780736

I don’t think it’ll take until midnight tbh.

[Highteeld]

Wouldn't surprise me if Laura emerges over water faster than the models are predicting. the llc may edge southward to where the most convection is thereafter. things get fun from there.

[tolakram]

[Highteeld]

any hi-res topo maps of cuba?

[Blinhart]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

Would you say its a fairly low lying area? Do they have construction code in LA like here in S.Fl where they build homes with cement block mostly?

Most of the homes south of Lake Charles that survived Ike and Rita, are not made of cement, I think there isn't that many made of cement, the building codes were not updated like in Florida after Andrew. So the only code that was updated was the elevation of the homes, all homes south of Intracoastal Waterway are either on stilts or built up mounds of earth. A lot of insurance companies will not even insure homes south of Hwy 90. And all the land south of I-10 is low lying, I'm 30 miles from the coast line as the crow flies and only 22 or so feet above sea level. A lot of the area south of the Intracoastal is marsh land. There are natural water breaks (earth mounds) through out the areas between the coast and I-10

[PavelGaborik10]

Lord she already appears to be over halfway through that strip of Cuba.

Things are about to get very, very interesting.

[BYG Jacob]

https://imgur.com/F1hDiNA

Just developing an eyewall over Cuba, no biggie

[ThetaE]

Three cheers for science-driven diplomacy! I always thought recon avoided land fixes for safety reasons; didn't realize it was geopolitical.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1298052227475611648

[cfisher]

The burst of convection to the northeast should help jumpstart northward polar outflow

[tropicwatch]

Didn't see if it was already mentioned but this is the first time I recall HH being able to over fly Cuba and they even seem to be taking readings. Pretty wild

[Kazmit]

any hi-res topo maps of cuba?

https://www.mapsland.com/maps/north-america/cuba/large-topographical-map-of-cuba.jpg

[Blinhart]

https://imgur.com/F1hDiNA

Looks like she is about to splash-down in the next hour or so.

[Highteeld]

https://imgur.com/F1hDiNA

Just developing an eyewall over Cuba, no biggie

Taking a stab in the dark here, but it would seem laura's eye made landfall just west of the highest terrain over western Cuba. This to me seems like it would add a frictional component that could tighten the circulation from the east side of the eyewall. it looks tighter on radar, which could mean less time needed to spin up over the gulf. gahhh, i don't know