ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[hurricanefloyd5]

yep Dolly has arrived 42 mph winds

Not yet beccause there is no surface low yet and untill that happens then no dolly!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Frank P]

I think I've seen enough vis sat loops to say it has a broad low level circulation, with the broad circulation still moving either just north of west or perhaps wnw... not sure if I can pinpoint a center but it looks to be ahead of most of the convection...

[americanrebel]

The question is what the initial intensity will be? 40kts, 45kts, or 50kts.

[ronjon]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

Not surprising given the proximity of the ULL to the west. Still imparting some SW shear. I would expect the heaviest convection to be displaced to the NE of the LLC.

[Derek Ortt]

Am I the only one that thinks it looks worse now than 5 hours ago. Out side of flair up of convection well NE of broad center, cloud tops seem to be warming.

probably... looks much better this morning

[wxsouth]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

I see your point, but given that this is the most defined the center has been, and the aircraft is finding 40+ knot sfc winds...I don't think they have much choice.

[lrak]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

Not surprising given the proximity of the ULL to the west. Still imparting some SW shear. I would expect the heaviest convection to be displaced to the NE of the LLC.

exactly.

[cheezyWXguy]

Best Track! 35kts

AL, 04, 2008072006, , BEST, 0, 165N, 822W, 35, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 0,

That entry is from six hours ago. It's been 35 kts for over 12 hours now.

read the first 4 letters...it says al04, as opposed to al94

[Chacor]

Best Track! 35kts

AL, 04, 2008072006, , BEST, 0, 165N, 822W, 35, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 0,

That entry is from six hours ago. It's been 35 kts for over 12 hours now.

read the first 4 letters...it says al04, as opposed to al94

2008072006. 06z. AL04 is just reflecting the file name. 12z could be higher than 35 kts.

[cycloneye]

Yeah Chacor now I saw the time.

[Air Force Met]

well... there is at least a broad center. That is clear

However, it is about 70NM west of the convection. I would NOT upgrade with it in its current state

I would. Otherwise we will have to have a complete paradigm shift in defining tropical cyclones...and consistency. It fits the definition...and if this isn't upgraded because there is no tight LLC...then pretty much all TD's shouldn't be called either...and/or they should be downgraded to a tropical low as soon as the convection moves from the center.

[Air Force Met]

yep Dolly has arrived 42 mph winds

Not yet beccause there is no surface low yet and untill that happens then no dolly!!!!!!!!!!!!

No surface low? You're kidding right?

[americanrebel]

yep Dolly has arrived 42 mph winds

Not yet beccause there is no surface low yet and untill that happens then no dolly!!!!!!!!!!!!

No surface low? You're kidding right?

I was thinking the same thing when I read that, want to know what hurricanefloyd5 is thinking or should I say smoking.

[hurricanefloyd5]

yep Dolly has arrived 42 mph winds

Not yet beccause there is no surface low yet and untill that happens then no dolly!!!!!!!!!!!!

No surface low? You're kidding right?

Well recon up to this point haven't found a closed low yet but maybe they will this time around

[HURAKAN]

They found west winds already.

[Sanibel]

It is probably having trouble wrapping the west winds because of the strong July tropical flow in the Caribbean.

The small covection dot to the south is disappearing and the top area looks like it is in the first phase of curling up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There keeping Cristobal a tropical storm with the LLC 80 nmi away from the convection. This has a closed LLC with 51 knot flight level already found. I don't care if the LLC is slightly displaced from the convection. That will change as the upper low moves out.

[Just Joshing You]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

[Air Force Met]

Well recon up to this point haven't found a closed low yet but maybe they will this time around

Uh....yes the did. Just because you don't see a vortex doesn't mean there isn't a closed low. Recon found numerous N-NNW-NW-WNW-W-WSW-SW-SSW winds.

That is the very definition of a closed low.

Just because it is broad and not tight doesn't mean it isn't closed. It most certainly is closed and recon found it in their first pass.

[perk]

AFM what's your thinking on the location of the LLC.