ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Think there's a natural convergence of trade winds in the straits that tends to slow these things down and fire more convection. It's slowly moving away from the shear zone east of the peninsula. Starting to some decent southerly inflow into it. Still needs to develop more intense convection to get a decent surface reflection.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-1-24&checked=pfalls,vort&prodDim=100&overDim=100

A good way to track lower level vorticity. Notice how elongated it is.

[HurriGuy]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

[robbielyn]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

and shear too.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

Yes, but the environment in the Gulf of Mexico will not be much better with ULLs surrounding the system. Or am I incorrect?

[ronjon]

Lowest pressure on land is marathon in middle keys at 29.87 currently.

[tolakram]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

Yes, but the environment in the Gulf of Mexico will not be much better with ULLs surrounding the system. Or am I incorrect?

How will we know until it happens. The GFS says you are correct, every other model including the Euro says you are wrong. I honestly don't know, we have to wait and see. While we may not get a classic storm out of this it appears like a lot of rain falling over a large area, which can end up making a lot more people miserable.

[NDG]

Latest zoomed in radar loop, convection increasing just east of the circulation. The little eddy continues to track WSW now south of Key West.
Is a flip of a coin if the recon this afternoon will find a tight enough circulation to get upgraded to a TD. GFS & Euro are persistent that it will find much better UL conditions as soon as tomorrow over the extreme SE GOM.

[northjaxpro]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

Spot on observation!!

[cycloneye]

Plane going and departs at 1 PM EDT.

Hurricane Field Program Update – Sunday, Aug. 28, 2016 11AM Eastern

Posted on August 28, 2016 by noaahrd


OPERATIONS

Sunday, 28 Aug. 2016

NOAA43: Is scheduled to fly an NHC operationally tasked reconnaissance mission into AL99, the tropical disturbance located in the Florida Straits. This means that the National Hurricane Center requested this flight. Take off is scheduled for 1700 UTC (1PM Eastern) to and from MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, FL. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight

[HurriGuy]

The ULL to the north is not going to be tracking west for much longer unlike 99L.

Thats the difference. More west it goes, the better environment it will find. The ULL over Texas/LA has already stopped moving east.

[HurriGuy]

What time is recon taking off? 2PM EDT?

[GeneratorPower]

Lots of lighting in those storms southeast of Key West. Usually indicates strengthening storms.

[cycloneye]

What time is recon taking off? 2PM EDT?

Departs at 1 PM EDT.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118173&p=2528938#p2528938

[NDG]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

Spot on observation!!

Western Cuban has high hills only around 1,500' at the highest, no high mountains like its eastern side.

[HurriGuy]

I cannot imagine recon finding anything we don't already know.

Tomorrow will be the big day

[GCANE]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-0-24&checked=pfalls,vort&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Yeah vorticity is back southeast a tad.

Getting some towers firing off in the center of the latest vorticity. Cirrus from them is pushing off to the NW.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

This is absolutely insane.

Count the upper level lows and this doesn't include the one over the east Caribbean

[northjaxpro]

This is why getting to the Gulf is the most important thing for 99L. All the southern inflow is being blocked by Cuba's mountains.

Spot on observation!!

Western Cuban has high hills only around 1,500' at the highest, no high mountains like its eastern side.

Once this system gets far enough away from the influences of Cuba into the GOM and shear finally relaxes just a bit, 99L I I believe will finally get classified as a depression, probably within the next 24 hours

[GCANE]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-0-24&checked=pfalls,vort&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Yeah vorticity is back southeast a tad.

Getting some towers firing off in the center of the latest vorticity. Cirrus from them is pushing off to the NW.

Colder top on this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif