Texas Winter 2022-2023

[gpsnowman]

Is this mic on??

The forum will get cranking this week if the models continue to bring the goods and especially when the goods are delivered. Today being a holiday probably kept some folks away from commenting on the pattern change.

[Cpv17]

Is this mic on??

18z GFS didn’t show much but it did show a monster ridge and a big drop in the EPO over the GOA and Alaska in the longer range.

[CaptinCrunch]

Until we get to the 20th and have a better picture of what may happen, then this board will become far more active.

I'm still on board with a cold February and probably a colder than average March.

[dpep4]

I'm almost halfway into a month long assignment in San Antonio and absolutely loving the 60s-70s so far. Winter cancel here is fine by me.

Only downside is this hotel is swamped by obvious Californians. It's like cosplay for most of them.

Speaking of CA, the drought monitor is improving at warp speed out there. If I read correctly, the Sierra has a record snowfall so far. Mammoth Lake's gotten about 30'?

[bubba hotep]

One of the snowier/wetter runs of the Euro Weeklies in a long while.

[Cpv17]

One of the snowier/wetter runs of the Euro Weeklies in a long while.

Does it resemble an El Niño pattern?

[Brent]

We blew away our record lowest max by 5 degrees here

It's gonna be brutal when winter inevitably returns

[txtwister78]

ICON getting interesting early next week. Similar alignment with the 12z Euro run. Something to watch going forward

[Iceresistance]

What did I miss yesterday?

[Cpv17]

That is one deep trough on the 6z GFS.. too bad it’s in the long range cuz that would be awesome.

[Iceresistance]

That is one deep trough on the 6z GFS.. too bad it’s in the long range cuz that would be awesome.

That storm dumps me, over a foot of snow!

[txtwister78]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

[Iceresistance]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/z500_anom/1673913600/1674583200-0viCd9AzQsA.png

That Euro run gives a wide swath of 1-3 inches of snow in Oklahoma and Texas, highest totals are NNE of DFW and into SE Oklahoma.

[Cpv17]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/z500_anom/1673913600/1674583200-0viCd9AzQsA.png

Dang! That’s impressive. Would be able to draw down some really cold air too. I’m kinda thinking this could be a step down process like we saw in Feb 21 but probably not as cold as then.

[Cpv17]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/z500_anom/1673913600/1674583200-0viCd9AzQsA.png

That Euro run gives a wide swath of 1-3 inches of snow in Oklahoma and Texas, highest totals are NNE of DFW and into SE Oklahoma.

Everything blows up to the east lol time after time again.

[txtwister78]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/z500_anom/1673913600/1674583200-0viCd9AzQsA.png

That Euro run gives a wide swath of 1-3 inches of snow in Oklahoma and Texas, highest totals are NNE of DFW and into SE Oklahoma.

No, that's the control run I'm referring to above and not the OP. The 0z control actually puts snow all the way down into parts of S Central & Central TX (3-5 inches) by closing off the system as it ejects over TX early next wk. The 0z ICON and 12z Euro yesterday had similar looks but not quite what the control is indicating.

I do think odds are increasing that parts of TX and Oklahoma will get some accumulating snow next wk regardless, but we shall see. I think we watch for a much colder pattern to take over beyond that.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS is starting to really pick up a winter weather signal for the Southern Plains around the 28/29 +/- a day or so. At this point, can only say that the pattern looks to pull the active weather back west over more of the Southern Plains, and there will be some colder air around. Too far out for details.

[Cpv17]

Just for fun...overnight control run on the Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/z500_anom/1673913600/1674583200-0viCd9AzQsA.png

That Euro run gives a wide swath of 1-3 inches of snow in Oklahoma and Texas, highest totals are NNE of DFW and into SE Oklahoma.

No, that's the control run I'm referring to above and not the OP. The 0z control actually puts snow all the way down into parts of S Central & Central TX (3-5 inches) by closing off the system as it ejects over TX early next wk. The 0z ICON and 12z Euro yesterday had similar looks but not quite what the control is indicating.

I do think odds are increasing that parts of TX and Oklahoma will get some accumulating snow next wk regardless, but we shall see. I think we watch for a much colder pattern to take over beyond that.

One thing I’ve noticed on the ensembles is they seem to be indicating the SE ridge persistently in the longer range poking into eastern TX but once it gets into the medium ish range it seems to keep getting replaced by lower heights.

[Iceresistance]

The PV is taking an absolute beating on the 6z GFS!

[txtwister78]

That Euro run gives a wide swath of 1-3 inches of snow in Oklahoma and Texas, highest totals are NNE of DFW and into SE Oklahoma.

No, that's the control run I'm referring to above and not the OP. The 0z control actually puts snow all the way down into parts of S Central & Central TX (3-5 inches) by closing off the system as it ejects over TX early next wk. The 0z ICON and 12z Euro yesterday had similar looks but not quite what the control is indicating.

I do think odds are increasing that parts of TX and Oklahoma will get some accumulating snow next wk regardless, but we shall see. I think we watch for a much colder pattern to take over beyond that.

One thing I’ve noticed on the ensembles is they seem to be indicating the SE ridge persistently in the longer range poking into eastern TX but once it gets into the medium ish range it seems to keep getting replaced by lower heights.

I think what you described above as a "step down" is probably the best way to define this pattern going forward next wk and beyond. Cold will press and eventually win out and that's when things could get really interesting but that's looking beyond the "bonus" that might occur early next wk. Fun times ahead though I think with this pattern potential.