Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

Still looking at cold returning mid month?

We should see a transition to cooler than normal temps beyond the 14th. The question is how cold we get relative to the averages for this time of the year. That's still up in the air in my opinion. One thing however that does seem to be in place going forward (which has good model support) is a more active southern jet and so if we can get enough cold air to drain into the pattern across our region, you start to look for winter precip opportunities to show up on the models the last two weeks of February.

[Harp.1]

Thank you for the responses.

[Ptarmigan]

From the great James Spann over in Birmingham…

 https://x.com/spann/status/1753763056868352260

Cold in Alaska = warm over the lower 48. Start to be concerned about cold down here when it's very warm in Alaska, as it was during the brutally cold winter of 1976-1977. Many of you were not around then. It was so cold across the U.S. that the Mississippi froze all the way down to St. Louis. Ice flows passed New Orleans in the spring. It snowed in Miami and the Keys. Meanwhile, U.S. troops in Alaska for winter survival training were suffering from heat exhaustion.

Punxatawney Phil is on watch atop my wall. He says winter is nearly over.

http://wxman57.com/images/groundhog.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/groundhog.JPG

Looking at a synopsis for Anchorage in 1976 and 1977, the temps don't reflect big anomalies, but this website linked below is not giving much data. What Alaskan heat are you referring to?
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/anchorage/year-1977

The warm has to go somewhere once the cold air goes south. A warm Alaska usually means cold Lower 48.

[Stratton23]

Interesting to see the ensembles linking the Alaskan-greenland block

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1753852351557865827

[Yukon Cornelius]

0.55” last night, also felt the earthquake lightly up this way.

[wxman57]

The warm has to go somewhere once the cold air goes south. A warm Alaska usually means cold Lower 48.

That's why I like to see Alaska very cold. Stay cold, Alaska!

[Stratton23]

Looks like alaska begins to warm up by a good margin after today, even fairbanks which is the coldest coty in alaska and the US, goes from a high of -32 to highs almost 40-45 defrees warmer next week, above normal temps favored up their in 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook, as the unofficial cold miser, ill be working over time to weaken the red river walls defenses!

[Wthrfan]

0.55” last night, also felt the earthquake lightly up this way.

The ground shook and rolled in Edmond last night. We also had thunderstorms rolling through around the same time, so it was a bit surreal.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS OP starting to see the big pattern change mid month, of course it means little this far out, but its definitely starting to see the key players coming together

[Brandon8181]

Well, it is obviously very far out, but the GFS is trying to bring winter weather back to Texas the week of the 18th. I guess we will see how future runs look!

Maybe another shot before things warm up!

[Stratton23]

Take it with a grain of salt but the newest euro weeklies, GEFS extended and CFS runs say no to a warm spring this year, keep things below all the way through the majority of march lol

[Brent]

2 years ago tonight it had snowed for nearly 2 days and we had 8 inches of snow biggest storm ive seen here

Nothing has come remotely close since. We've had about 4 hours of snow this entire winter so far and still nothing in the next 2 weeks showing up

[Itryatgolf]

2 years ago tonight it had snowed for nearly 2 days and we had 8 inches of snow biggest storm ive seen here

Nothing has come remotely close since. We've had about 4 hours of snow this entire winter so far and still nothing in the next 2 weeks showing up

I don't think we get cold imo. If mjo was moving, models would show it by now and would indicate it getting colder.

[Stratton23]

Itryatgolf the MJO is moving, and thats also not how it works with the models especially the globals, the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement with a blocking ridge connection from Alaska to Greenland, the cold isnt going to show up immediately in the operationals for a while, very typical , but the op GFS is starting to see it

[Iceresistance]

Itryatgolf the MJO is moving, and thats also not how it works with the models especially the globals, the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement with a blocking ridge connection from Alaska to Greenland, the cold isnt going to show up immediately in the operationals for a while, very typical , but the op GFS is starting to see it

The MJO is actually moving faster than expected. It is already close to Phase 8, which is something the models did not expect until mid February

[orangeblood]

Getting 2010 vibes on these ENS 5h charts

[bubba hotep]

Getting 2010 vibes on these ENS 5h charts

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1707026400/1708408800-eu9tYzPaZVs.png

That will be our best bet. At this point, it doesn't look like we will get any more severe cold, which is fine since it usually comes with a positive tilted longwave pattern that keeps Texas mostly dry.

[gpsnowman]

I'm a little concerned about the lack of snow cover in the plains and midwest, although I don't think that in itself would prevent a surprise snow for our area, but it would help if those areas started seeing snow. Especially with any future cold air coming down. I am hoping something similar sets up like in January when snow cover was weak but in the days preceding the arctic outbreak, those areas got pummeled with snow. Waiting on the potential pattern flip is requiring some serious patience.

[aggiecutter]