ATL: IRMA - Models

[BobHarlem]

898mb surface pressure and rEally close to the Bahamas, Seems to see/feel the trough opening to the north, but borderline too far to get pulled into it may start drifting around here to the north at first.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all,

I have been out most of the late afternoon and evening. As much as I appreciate those who post the models, it is a bit confusing/, Ones says faster more east, then no it's slower more SW folks help me out here Lol, just give me the bottom line on the most recent GFS run, and the over all model agreement if there is any, thanks again in advance for posting them.

[AutoPenalti]

It's crawling through the Bahamas. Not near as quick as earlier in the run.

Not good, ridge could build it and shove it west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

We are right on the cusp of either a North turn or a turn back to the West I think.

[otowntiger]

I think it was Aric that said we would start seeing the models shift southwest once Irma started here southwest movement

And in the same way couldn't the opposite hold true when it begins to gain latitude again?

Of course, but the farther west she gets the harder it will be to miss the east coast.

But this west south west motion was exactly forecasted with the return to the wnw motion ultimately turning sharply NW and north east of the Bahamas. I guess what I'm saying is the models shift with the storm's current motion but the long term average ends up being the same motion and ultimately similar position. I'm certainly no expert so this is just my very amateur, perhaps irrelevant observation.

[SFLcane]

GFS what are you doing?

[WHYB630]

EC & GFS both agree with the location and speed (up to this point), but different upper pattern

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am counting on my S.FLA guys here to get me up to date, but with the facts lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Still creeping in the Bahamas. Taking too long to get moving.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[otowntiger]

We are right on the cusp of either a North turn or a turn back to the West I think.

In that frame certainly looks like a pretty good northerly component has started.

[WHYB630]

888hPa @168hrs -_-

[lando]

Goodbye Nassau and grand Bahama

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Has the GFS fun finished or do we still have a bit to go. Euro will be very interesting tonight.

[galaxy401]

With that movement, it won't get that strong due to strong upwelling...Bahamas though...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Failed to thread the needle and the ridge is comin'

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Has the GFS fun finished or do we still have a bit to go. Euro will be very interesting tonight.

Still at Hour 162.

[SFLcane]

yep turned but folks in FLORIDA stay tuned i think these west trends could continue.

[pcolaman]

It's not done trending to the west yet. Still has days to go for sure. I hope this storm doesn't run the spine of Florida or pull a Charlie ? One thing I have noticed is if the storm keeps further south then will the front even influence the storm? Get til really low.