Texas Winter 2022-2023

[rwfromkansas]

A pattern with ridiculous cold often isn't what we need since it scours moisture, but oh heavens, what we don't need is a pattern in which we are 33 and rainy. That's worse than a dry cold IMO. I am very busy trying to get kids to get the yearbook done on time this year since during the COVID years we were horrid with deadlines. So, until it gets really exciting, hard to spend lots of time here. When it does, I will find the time. Lol.

[gboudx]

jeff sent an email discussing near record warmth for SETX, but the last paragraph is probably of more interest so pasting only it below.

Longer term pattern suggest a return of colder conditions across the western and potentially the central US into the end of January and start of February. How cold is still very much in question with deep SW US trough likely to keep some of the cold west and northwest of the southern plains at least initially. Also looks fairly active with the southern branch storm track, so increasingly below normal temperatures and above average precipitation going toward the end of the month.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS and GEFS are in agreement that the coldest air, relative to avg, in the NMEM in the longer range will be building in WCAN. This could set the stage for a significant cold dump sometime in the 1st half of February.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS with wildly different solutions on every run, could be inside the dust right now.

[Ntxw]

The GFS with wildly different solutions on every run, could be inside the dust right now.

We're in a period of transition (on top of that a complete flip in the Pacific) so it is not surprising to see trouble within guidance. I'd wait until the pattern settles in, for better skill scores.

[Cerlin]

Back in mid-late December, I noticed several people on this forum and some mets on twitter talking about the period after January 20th a return to wintry weather, and based on the model trends over the last week (especially now that operational model runs are starting to signal it), that looks to be shaping up. Major props to you guys for nailing that so early on.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1615347592455684100

[nathanc1969]

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1615347592455684100

Never doubt Larry.

[Cpv17]

Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.

[harp]

Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.

I have no faith in that, no matter if I like what it shows or not. It changes like the wind.

[txtwister78]

Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.

That's more of a snapshot based off current models. It doesn't really reflect the overall pattern potential. In other words, it will change as models change.

[Cpv17]

Yeah I agree with y’all. That cold air will build further south after the 25th imo.

[Ntxw]

There is some rearing of the +PNA. In the back of mind my biggest concern would be the coldest air shifts to the east in the most critical times. Without blocking in Quebec/Atlantic Canada the risk for cold to slide east vs south, albeit early and small at the moment, is there. Head-fakes of cold tends to happen this way. Luckily we are in the time of year cold can overwhelm.

[harp]

Well, folks, it looks like there will be ample opportunities for precip in the coming weeks, however (cold air not included)

[harp]

Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!

You haven’t and cold will be here.

[harp]

Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!

You haven’t and cold will be here.

Give that man some gumbo and some boiled crawfish from my neck of the woods!

[Itryatgolf]

It's taken a while to build cold like bubba hotep alluded to earlier. Hopefully we will have one more opportunity at a winter event before winter is over. We have had a big jet plowing into the west coast so it isn't easy to reverse the pattern yet

[Iceresistance]

Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!

You did not, were just preparing for this upcoming wave of cold air that is coming at the end of this month.

[Ntxw]

1 more day of this nasty 70s/80s in the northern half of the state, maybe 2 more days for the southern tier. Then we can get back closer to January normals and stay there at least.