ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Too early for JB to say Modoki?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Modiki el nino is coming! SOI crash well underway.

Definitely too early. If it is a modoki it will be a powerful one. Most modokis have much weaker warm pools and start much later in the year. Your graph showing heat content comparisons proves this. At the very least the 09-10 strength modoki if not traditional. But still too early.

[ninel conde]

i think JB is -removed- a modiki so he can still drum up interest in this cane season and next winter. a full blown el nino, which seems likely, will kill cane season and make next winter mild.

[Hurricane Jed]

Another telling graphic to compare past El Nino events with the developing 2014 one.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/wk5mav.jpg

If that trend continues, this could be something historic.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

i think JB is -removed- a modiki so he can still drum up interest in this cane season and next winter. a full blown el nino, which seems likely, will kill cane season and make next winter mild.

Not all Modoki-type El Nino causes more active seasons. Take a look at the year 2009, we had less then 10 storms in the Atlantic. ENSO status for me does not really do an effect on the activity in your basin.

And so you will be guided, the word MODOKI means "same, but different" from the Japanese language. This came to use in Japan in the year 2004, where a Central-based [unusual] type of Nino formed at that year.

[cycloneye]

ENSO status for me does not really do an effect on the activity in your basin.

In these two traditional strong El Nino years,both seasons had below 10 named storms so it had a big effect.

[Hurricane Jed]

Caribbean becomes a TC death trap and activity confined to above 25 N in the GOM

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ENSO status for me does not really do an effect on the activity in your basin.

In these two traditional strong El Nino years,both seasons had below 10 named storms so it had a big effect.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Actually, I meant in the past 10 years. It sorts of confuses me as 2004 was a Modoki, it had numerous systems and was a very season. 2009 was ALSO MODOKI, right? But, it had 9 storms. Maybe during strong El Nino/La Nina events, they had a big effect, so you're right in that post above. 2013 was cool neutral for the Pacific, so it should have been very active for you guys, but, it ended up having one of the lowest ACE units in a year and only less than 15% of the storms became hurricanes.

It depends on the PDO most [but not all] of the time. Positive PDO [+PDO] may mean a less active Atlantic season and -PDO means active season. 2013 was -PDO but was inactive, so that is why I only meant most of the time.

Please feel free to correct my mistakes, as I am not a professional meteorologist and this is only an AMATEUR statement.

[Hurricane Jed]

Some years just stink all around. 1977 is a fine example. The Atlantic, EPAC and WPAC all had limited activity.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

ENSO status for me does not really do an effect on the activity in your basin.

In these two traditional strong El Nino years,both seasons had below 10 named storms so it had a big effect.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Actually, I meant in the past 10 years. It sorts of confuses me as 2004 was a Modoki, it had numerous systems and was a very season. 2009 was ALSO MODOKI, right? But, it had 9 storms. Maybe during strong El Nino/La Nina events, they had a big effect, so you're right in that post above. 2013 was cool neutral for the Pacific, so it should have been very active for you guys, but, it ended up having one of the lowest ACE units in a year and only less than 15% of the storms became hurricanes.

It depends on the PDO most [but not all] of the time. Positive PDO [+PDO] may mean a less active Atlantic season and -PDO means active season. 2013 was -PDO but was inactive, so that is why I only meant most of the time.

Please feel free to correct my mistakes, as I am not a professional meteorologist and this is only an AMATEUR statement.

The 2009-10 El Nino is considered a Modoki because, at its peak, the warmest anomalies shifted to southwest of Hawaii (December-January 09/10). However, during hurricane season, the warmest anomalies were located in the East Pacific--a traditional El Nino.

In an El Nino, the area with the warmest anomalies produce the most convection. That convection produces outflow, which not only shears tropical cyclones across the Gulf/Caribbean, but amplifies the TUTT (upper-level trough) downstream. If the warmest waters, and convection, are located in the Central Pacific, then the East Pacific gets the shear instead. This is why the 2004 Pacific hurricane season only had 12 named storms.

[euro6208]

those graphics are really impressive especially when comparing to 1997!

i really believe we could be headed to another super traditional nino...

[cycloneye]

Good point Tx 13 about Modoki and how it affects EPAC activity.

[Ntxw]

i think JB is -removed- a modiki so he can still drum up interest in this cane season and next winter. a full blown el nino, which seems likely, will kill cane season and make next winter mild.

Not all Modoki-type El Nino causes more active seasons. Take a look at the year 2009, we had less then 10 storms in the Atlantic. ENSO status for me does not really do an effect on the activity in your basin.

And so you will be guided, the word MODOKI means "same, but different" from the Japanese language. This came to use in Japan in the year 2004, where a Central-based [unusual] type of Nino formed at that year.

Most El Nino's are actually Modoki or central Pacific. Only the biggest ones (there are about one per decade, except in the 2000s there wasn't; 2006 may have been one but it was weaker and short lived) which are EP El Nino and not CP. 2004 just got the stamp because it was one of the weakest and very late bloomer thus allowing the hurricane season to be effected minimally which got a lot of attention and eventually gave modoki the rap which is unfair.

[stephen23]

Very good point TX 13. Here is the sst anomaly for end of July of 2009. It does show a traditional Nino during peak hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

Here's an image of the daily SOI since beginning of March. Once we lose February, the March values are quite low it's not inconceivable (as long as it remains negative until April) we may see 30 day dip between -15 and -20 which at that point typically a very stable SOI and solid ENSO state.



1997 saw a stable string of -20s/-30s begin around March 21st after being mostly positive Jan/Feb/first half of March.

[tolakram]

El Nino is just one indicator of activity, as we've discovered with La Nina and Neutral years.

I don't understand why JB keeps tweeting about Modoki, it's not something he discusses much on the pay site.

[cycloneye]

Two different contrasts going on right now with Nino 3.4 and Nino 1+2:

Nino 3.4 latest readings are around 0.0C so it has climbed slowly from the -0.4C that was for the past couple of weeks.





On the contrary,Nino 1+2 keeps falling fast around -1.5C. For a traditional El Nino to hold,this area has to stop going down and rise bigtime. Ntxw,is this crash of Nino 1+2 taking too long and when it starts to go up it may not be sufficient to make it a traditional El Nino?

[stephen23]

Nino 1+2 continues to drop. Also a little cooling in Nino 3 over past few days.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ntxw]

El Nino is just one indicator of activity, as we've discovered with La Nina and Neutral years.

I don't understand why JB keeps tweeting about Modoki, it's not something he discusses much on the pay site.

This. People need to remember not too overly think it as well. Sometimes the biases is pretty evident. People who want their basins to be active pick the conditions they prefer over the actual data. This was a reason to why many busts occurred last year, they simply ignored the other factors that were negative as well. The same can be said for the other side. His bias is cold in North America so he would love to see that modoki.

The MJO is currently meandering in the Indian Ocean, but one wouldn't know it since the big convection clusters are in the Pacific. SOI is defying the MJO as that index is suggesting positives but we are getting deep negatives.

[cycloneye]

I asked Dr Eric Blake via twitter about the drop at Nino 1+2:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 15 min
@EricBlake12 update--2014 quite comparable to 1997 still. we shall see if a week 2 easterly wind surge changes things



Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 13 min
@EricBlake12 Nino 1+2 dropping fast to around -1.5C. Maybe a modoki El Nino?


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 9 min
@tropicspr unlikely. any drop in Nino 1+2 will likely be short-lived as oceanic Kelvin wave enters area

[Ntxw]

Check out this latest animation of TAO/Triton sub-surface. While the anomalies are incredible, it's equally as interesting to see the actual sea surface temperatures up top push east. When we get our next La Nina it will be equally as interesting to see it push back way to the west.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2014

Good to see the buoys are being fixed. Absolutely critical data as ENSO phenomena not just effects weather but many other aspects for the globe.