CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

Dry air will keep it from bombing too fast. If that clears all bets are off....

show me the dry air??????

[baitism]

Look at the WV a few posts up. Its pretty dry infront of Dean.

[Aric Dunn]

latest image 500 Z

[Aric Dunn]

eye showing up clearly ...

[Sanibel]

Looks like a hurricane burst right now on GHCC. Perfect form.

[chadtm80]

hey guys, We should have a cane at 5AM, if not at 2. IR is showing clear signs of eye formation.

But where is the image?

Don't have a link to the IR?

[Viper54r]

eye showing up clearly ...

Where? I see nothing that would indicate an eye starting to punch through

[Aric Dunn]

hey guys, We should have a cane at 5AM, if not at 2. IR is showing clear signs of eye formation.

But where is the image?

Don't have a link to the IR?

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[Stratosphere747]

[southerngale]

I can't get the NHC loops to work. Anyone else having this problem?

I was, then I rebooted my computer and they work fine now.

[pojo]

The Hurricane Hunters (NOAA & USAFR are in place... we are flying Dean starting this morning

[Aric Dunn]

eye showing up clearly ...

Where? I see nothing that would indicate an eye starting to punch through

it would be the warming near the center of the CDO

[baitism]

Thats not the eye. But I have no doubts by this time tomorrow you will see one.

[Sanibel]

Hurricane form, symmetry.

[thunderchief]

I dont know, I think the "dry air" is overused as a strength indicator. Remember the satellite cannot see through to the surface on WV wavelengths. This is the carib/tropical atlantic we are talking about. The surface air is quite moist, I assure you.


On IR, the outflow looks good especially to the north where the "dry air" is, the CDO is increasing and becoming more symmetrical, and theres that eye that may be forming. I would say its a cat 1 now. With decent upper air support, strengthening seems given and rapid strengthening cannot be ruled out.

[Acral]

Looks like a 'cane now. Bad mojo for the islands, and call me stubborn, but I still think there will be a North recurve of some sort as it enters the GoM, thinking TX/LA, but while I would not go so far as to put Florida in the clear, looking more and more like a NW GoM strike. My thinking is that I don't think the ridge will keep it in place long enough to keep the solid westardly track.

[Aric Dunn]

better image.. I would bet a lot of money that is the first signs of it the warming in the center .. surrounded by deeper colder cloud tops

[pojo]

we are in place... we will start flying the storm in the morning.

[Viper54r]

maybe

[weatherwindow]

Each individual island government is repsonsible for issuing warnings for their respective populations I do believe. So it is up to them to deteremine first if there is a need for a warning and then they decide when then they issue warnings.

Correct me if I am wrong but on some of the islands the order to give warnings come from the homeland. I was thinking like France would be the government to issue warnings for Guadelupe etc...

Now if I am wrong the please correct me! Thanks!

guadeloupe, dominica, martinique, and french st martens are french overseases departments...meteofrance in concert with the government issues warnings at their discretion...and they have a history of procrastination in that regard...many times their warnings have lagged the nhc recommendations by as many as 12-24 hours....never have quite understood why they unnecessarily jeopardize these islands....french hubris can be infuriating........rich