ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061450
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/14:36:30Z
B. 15 deg 51 min N
080 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1402 m
D. 67 kt
E. 293 deg 4 nm
F. 029 deg 51 kt
G. 286 deg 5 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1556 m
J. 22 C / 1510 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/10/5
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 14
MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z
;

[cycloneye]

[AJC3]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 061450
XXAA 56158 99158 70805 04550 99996 26833 03504 00535 ///// /////
92653 22824 20007 85392 21249 01006 88999 77999
31313 09608 81436
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 1585N08045W 1438 MBL WND 01505 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24
502 995844 WL150 01507 084 REL 1585N08045W 143645 SPG 1585N08045W
143822 =
XXBB 56158 99158 70805 04550 00996 26833 11919 22826 22897 23248
33850 21249
21212 00996 03504 11983 01508 22947 35002 33918 19510 44909 21014
55900 22511 66884 20510 77871 26001 88857 01003 99844 01008
31313 09608 81436
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 1585N08045W 1438 MBL WND 01505 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24
502 995844 WL150 01507 084 REL 1585N08045W 143645 SPG 1585N08045W
143822 =
;

[RL3AO]

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...

The NHC now believes. It may be a hurricane by the next advisory. We need a NE quad sample...

Once again, the NW quad is the strongest which they found a 77kt FL wind.

[CrazyC83]

Even on the back side of the storm, lots of SFMR readings around 55 kt. Those were all in the E quad (weaker).

[crimi481]

NHC discussion mentions a center relocation to N.W - however says "not sure" if center moved that way or relocated that way
Time will tell

[Portastorm]

NHC discussion mentions a center relocation to N.W - however says "not sure" if center moved that way or relocated that way
Time will tell

With Ernesto quickly ramping up ... and perhaps a bit sooner than the globals anticipated ... I think tonight's 0z runs are going to be quite interesting. NHC may have to adjust that track further north if Ernesto is more influenced poleward.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061500
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120806
145200 1552N 07950W 8432 01553 0109 +130 +117 147057 058 053 020 00
145230 1552N 07949W 8429 01558 0110 +130 +116 146053 055 051 014 00
145300 1552N 07947W 8431 01556 0110 +132 +115 144052 055 048 011 00
145330 1552N 07946W 8432 01557 0108 +135 +115 141055 057 057 011 00
145400 1552N 07945W 8430 01557 0099 +148 +115 141059 060 058 010 00
145430 1552N 07943W 8433 01552 0100 +145 +115 141061 062 051 008 00
145500 1551N 07942W 8431 01557 0106 +136 +116 141062 062 046 009 00
145530 1551N 07941W 8429 01562 0110 +136 +116 143061 062 046 008 00
145600 1551N 07940W 8428 01566 0106 +147 +116 144058 060 045 008 00
145630 1551N 07938W 8430 01564 0109 +143 +117 139052 055 043 008 00
145700 1551N 07937W 8433 01562 0109 +146 +117 136050 051 044 008 00
145730 1551N 07935W 8432 01564 0108 +150 +118 135051 052 043 009 00
145800 1551N 07934W 8430 01567 0113 +142 +119 137054 055 043 009 00
145830 1551N 07933W 8428 01570 0113 +145 +119 143056 057 043 009 00
145900 1551N 07931W 8429 01570 0114 +146 +120 143058 059 039 009 00
145930 1551N 07930W 8429 01573 0117 +142 +120 144057 058 038 009 00
150000 1551N 07929W 8432 01569 0120 +138 +119 141054 056 039 009 00
150030 1551N 07927W 8423 01579 0123 +136 +119 142048 053 040 010 00
150100 1551N 07926W 8432 01570 0121 +139 +119 147048 051 042 010 00
150130 1551N 07924W 8432 01570 0126 +135 +120 144048 053 041 012 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

Fingers crossed this storm doesn't feel the weakness over the NE Gulf and turn northward. If he hits RI all bets are off!

[monicaei]

Is it going to continue to slow down, or maintain this speed? What caused it to slam on the brakes since yesterday?

[AJC3]

Is it going to continue to slow down, or maintain this speed? What caused it to slam on the brakes since yesterday?

(1) It's forward speed probably won't change appreciably, and (2) It slowed due to the mid tropospheric ridge to its north being weaker than it was when Ernesto was farther east.

[Blinhart]

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

[N2FSU]

What effect, if any, could the ULL in the western GOM have on the steering currents for Ernesto?

[AJC3]

[Blinhart]

D. 67 kt
E. 293 deg 4 nm
F. 029 deg 51 kt
G. 286 deg 5 nm
H. 996 mb

from this VDM shouldn't this make Ernesto a Hurricane with about 80mph winds and a pressure of 996mb???

[FutureEM]

Even Rapid Intensification probably wouldn't propel it North, it's to far West at this point...had it occurred 24 hours sooner then it might. It's kind of like the mens road race in the Olympics, the british bikers were favored to win but they waited to long to sprint to the front...hence they lost. Anyway this is all my opinion, but thats what I'm thinking.

['CaneFreak]

Good question. I don't think Ernie is deep enough to feel any weakness in the NGOM right now. However, if he becomes a very strong hurricane, the track could adjust northward a bit but not far enough to allow for a US landfall.

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

[Bocadude85]

D. 67 kt
E. 293 deg 4 nm
F. 029 deg 51 kt
G. 286 deg 5 nm
H. 996 mb

from this VDM shouldn't this make Ernesto a Hurricane with about 80mph winds and a pressure of 996mb???

The 67kts was at flight level.. Would support the 65mph intensity

[drezee]

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...

The NHC now believes. It may be a hurricane by the next advisory. We need a NE quad sample...

Once again, the NW quad is the strongest which they found a 77kt FL wind.

That is not correct. Moving between WNW and NW would mean the "NE quad" is likely closer to Due N than NW. Let me help everyone understand. There have been three recon fixes. Typically that is good enough for a heading between the 1st and third point. In this case, the bearing is a ~305 degree movement. The "NE" quad is typically 45 degrees right of the bearing of the system. Therefore, the strongest winds are not necessarily in the NW quad from a recon perspective. Given the data above, approx 40% of the true NE quad would be in the recon NE quad. The NE quad would be centered at 350 degree (almost due N). I commend the vigor of your assertion. Unfortunately, your assertion is wrong.

[AJC3]

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

I think that was pretty much answered in the TCD, although I suppose there could be a little more poleward movement than forecast if Ernesto was to overachieve w/r/t the intensity forecast.

"ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."