ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

We're probably in for a night of some borderline rapid intensification. Fortunately, the limit to how far Beryl can wind back up is greatly limited by its time over water. I am going with an aggressive 95 knots before landfall, more-or-less in-line with the latest HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/jEOKVtq.jpeg

that satellite image shows an awful lot of dry air that will keep the intensity held in check until it’s worked out. Hopefully it doesn’t rapidly intensify, if at all.

[Wampadawg]

Hurricane Warning just blasted across my phone for Brazoria county!

[IcyTundra]

990 mb from the dropsonde

[MGC]

1pm update has Beryl's heading at 330 degrees....that is almost NNW. Beryl starting to make the north turn......MGC

[MississippiWx]

Beryl’s wind field is still a bit broad and has the look of a system that is still mixing out dry air. The banding that is developing is a precursor to quicker strengthening. Once that begins to wrap into the center, it should help close it off allowing for a stronger storm.

[Frank P]

Latest RECON fix 991mb

[ColdMiser123]

Pretty close to what the HWRF thought pressure would be at this point (989 vs 990 mb supported from the dropsonde).

On the HWRF Beryl just explosively takes off in the final 12 hours before landfall (21z-9z, or 5 pm EDT - 5 am EDT).

[Steve]

Could see a north wobble before possible hook NNW if it has more west in it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[LARanger]

Someone mentioned the NHC not getting this one correct. Does anyone know if the center of Beryl ever left their cone of error?

Yes, more than once, short-term and long-term.

I believe the most obvious occasion was over the Yucatan, where the whole eye did, but that was more like a wobble, scarcely a few minutes out from their cone update, with the storm headed more north than they expected.

I've checked the thread and there were two noted short-term "cone excursions" . . . 8:30a July 4 was one noted that I haven't confirmed:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3072288

Here's one from July 5 with visual aid:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3073302

As for falling outside the long-term cone, this may have happened around or just after Yucatan regarding certain cones from days prior, but (a) not all forecast cones were affected, cone-to-cone, and (b) I'm not sure if the actual track falls outside the cone or just rides the line, 100%. (I was trying to overlay two things that aren't really easy to work with . . . I'll find something better later.)

[Craters]

Hurricane Warning just blasted across my phone for Brazoria county!

Yup -- here, too, also in Brazoria County.

[Nuno]

Noticing that blow up to the north east of the eyewall on radar. If it can help close off the eye and mix out the dry air in the next few hours there is a chance at further strengthening before coming ashore.

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

SETX mets took a big whiff as well, told everyone we were goooood and it was going to mexico/southern texas just before july 4th, no one is thinking about this storm, until now.....

I don't think we need this crap on the forums. This shouldnt be a place to criticize professional mets who have to balance public opinion and public awareness. 4 days ago it looked like the storm was going to tampico, there is no reason to start talking about a galveston landfall. That unnecessarily frightens people. You guys are making "forecasts" with hindsight 2020 as if it were obvious where the storm was going to go.

Many people here also have no risk whatsoever by just throwing out calls. Sure sometimes you get it right when you just check darts randomly at the dartboard.

Hard disagree if you're in a position of public awareness and public safety is part of your job, then they should be prepared to face fair criticism if they were speaking in absolutes and misleading the public. Even if it "looked like" it was going to Tampico, it was still too far to speak on the absolutes that we saw. People don't bash for the sake of bashing especially on this forum but TV mets also need to be more responsible in their messaging to avoid this.

[Steve]

Hurricane Warning just blasted across my phone for Brazoria county!

Yup -- here, too, also in Brazoria County.

Y’all were my call yesterday. Hair east of the bay maybe 982 (could drop lower) and cat 1 strengthening coming in. I was looking at EPS and GPS means and nudged it east due to the icon. Hope to be close on those calls but more hope all you down there come out okay.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/x55tBV3.png

1979, Cat 5 Hurricane David (926 mb) hit Hispanola, and came off the island and headed for Florida. Organization looked excellent, outflow excellent, and hurricane warnings went up for S. and central Florida, and steady intensification forecast repeatedly until landfall. Two+ days later the highest winds recorded on land were at Ft. Pierce, were only 70 mph sustained. Point, looked great, Labor Day weekend, hot ocean, but not much re-intensification occurred to everyone's surprise,.

David gusted to mid 90’s from Jupiter to Ft. Pierce. There was heavy vegetation and roof damage.

[GCANE]

8500 CAPE pretty far east of Beryl
Will takes some time to get into Beryl.
Maybe this will be the jolt just before landfall

[Cpv17]

Wharton County is now under a Hurricane Warning.

[Marrkkk]

Love the work everyone does, Happy to watch "forecasts". I know fighting happens, but this has been good information. In Victoria and prepared 5 days ago because of the outliers.

Thank you guys so much!!!!!

[catskillfire51]

Hurricane Warning just blasted across my phone for Brazoria county!

Yup -- here, too, also in Brazoria County.

Y’all were my call yesterday. Hair east of the bay maybe 982 (could drop lower) and cat 1 strengthening coming in. I was looking at EPS and GPS means and nudged it east due to the icon. Hope to be close on those calls but more hope all you down there come out okay.

I'll be at work on Quintana Island, just East of East Matagorda Bay, might be able to catch the landfall for yall lol

[capNstorms]

Organizing and forming that eye, then faster rate of deepening will follow once it's into that sweet spot, and a strengthening hurricane on landfall, IMO... those winds will intensify and burst to the surface. It's starting to make the north jog to my naked eye on satellite.
Matagorda Bay to Galveston all the way to Sabine pass need to be on High alert for the storm surge, 6'+ 8-10' possibly with the high tide coming in and high wind bursts from a strengthening hurricane...

Houston, SETX, and EAST Texas counties need to prepare for possibly a foot of rainfall over the next 36hrs if this thing doesn't start moving faster than the models had initialized... FV3, HRRR, WRF-ARW, all showing copious amounts of rainfall. If you have any last minute preparations to make, now is the time to make them.

[galvbay]

Lurker from way back (joined 2002). Just checking in from Anahuac/Oak Island. Squall line came through around 11 this morning maybe 3/4” with 30 mph gust. Looking for 4-50 mph gust next 24 hrs. Stay safe S2K members.
Anyone know what happened to Ticka?

[RachelAnna]

Organizing and forming that eye, then faster rate of deepening will follow once it's into that sweet spot, and a strengthening hurricane on landfall, IMO... those winds will intensify and burst to the surface. It's starting to make the north jog to my naked eye on satellite.
Matagorda Bay to Galveston all the way to Sabine pass need to be on High alert for the storm surge, 6'+ 8-10' possibly with the high tide coming in and high wind bursts from a strengthening hurricane...

Houston, SETX, and EAST Texas counties need to prepare for possibly a foot of rainfall over the next 36hrs if this thing doesn't start moving faster than the models had initialized... FV3, HRRR, WRF-ARW, all showing copious amounts of rainfall. If you have any last minute preparations to make, now is the time to make them.

Had the first feeder move in NW of Houston a bit ago. Some pretty impressive wind gusts and rainfall. All the people laughing about the storm yesterday probably had their eyes opened a bit…