Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

I mean if this is true Arctic air I can easily seeing those temps now being forecast to bust on Friday. Lots to see play out.

[Brent]

Honestly guys I wouldn't stress out... We all know how the models struggle with Arctic air

Especially if we're gonna get buried up here which is looking increasingly likely to me

[Gotwood]

Honestly guys I wouldn't stress out... We all know how the models struggle with Arctic air

Especially if we're gonna get buried up here which is looking increasingly likely to me

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. HRRR showing a 1047 HP in the Dakotas.

[Brent]

Honestly guys I wouldn't stress out... We all know how the models struggle with Arctic air

Especially if we're gonna get buried up here which is looking increasingly likely to me

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking.

I mean it'd be one thing if we were trending bad but honestly I'm seeing more and more people talk about historic snow

[Gotwood]

Honestly guys I wouldn't stress out... We all know how the models struggle with Arctic air

Especially if we're gonna get buried up here which is looking increasingly likely to me

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking.

I mean it'd be one thing if we were trending bad but honestly I'm seeing more and more people talk about historic snow

Only people saying that live further south into DFW. Where it has temps from dropping below freezing until Saturday now. But like we know true arctic air is dense and will win out.

[Brent]

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking.

I mean it'd be one thing if we were trending bad but honestly I'm seeing more and more people talk about historic snow

Only people saying that live further south into DFW. Where it has temps from dropping below freezing until Saturday now. But like we know true arctic air is dense and will win out.

That's another thing when I went to Kansas City for their blizzard last year there were so much concern about a warm nose and a mix even up into the metro as late at the onset!

It was all snow everywhere

[CaptinCrunch]

A significant intrusion of Arctic air and impactful wintry precipitation will affect all of North and Central Texas from Friday evening through the upcoming weekend. A cold rain on Friday will gradually transition to freezing rain and sleet from north to south on Friday night and Saturday. A full changeover to sleet and some snow is expected across parts of North Texas late Saturday before wintry weather ends on Sunday.

[Ntxw]

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking.

I mean it'd be one thing if we were trending bad but honestly I'm seeing more and more people talk about historic snow

Only people saying that live further south into DFW. Where it has temps from dropping below freezing until Saturday now. But like we know true arctic air is dense and will win out.

As it stands there is 3 rounds of significant precip. The first is tomorrow into tomorrow night which the freeze line placement determines how much rain, freezing rain, and how quickly it changes from one type to another. Second batch Saturday is mostly sleet and 3rd batch with the ULL trowel development is sleet changing to snow, dry slot dependent on where it ejects.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning! 6 to 12 inches!

And yeah I wouldn't be surprised if the final round Saturday night is actually the peak here

[orangeblood]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

[rwfromkansas]

Phew this roller coaster. Just going to hug the NWS for now

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I mean if this is true Arctic air I can easily seeing those temps now being forecast to bust on Friday. Lots to see play out.

So i agree. Partially. I agree in a sense of how can a 1052 HP in the US not produce below freezing temps to the Gulf Coast. At the same time, the winds are shunting things to the east and i believe alot of the cold will go with it.

[Ntxw]

I think an ICON/GFS/RGEM blend is probably the way to go for temps. Initially it may be a little slow to transition the freeze line quickly but Saturday afternoon and evening once CAA is going strong it will fall very quickly into the lower 20s and teens across I-20. I'm not buying the Euro/NAM couplet yet, I've seen surface temps fail with these blasts we've gone through this many times already with those especially the Euro.

[Ntxw]

I mean if this is true Arctic air I can easily seeing those temps now being forecast to bust on Friday. Lots to see play out.

So i agree. Partially. I agree in a sense of how can a 1052 HP in the US not produce below freezing temps to the Gulf Coast. At the same time, the winds are shunting things to the east and i believe alot of the cold will go with it.

This is the disconnect between the upper flow and surface. Back in 2023 every model (global) led by the Euro was pretty good with the upper flow but struggled with lower level cold, myself, txtwister, and orangeblood had to go against the world because the Euro was mild only to see one of the worse freezing rain icing events in ATX and SAT. If you have a trough that digs into the southwest it allows the cold to bleed. This splitting of the upper flow it has to pick one or the other and often times it is the model that picks the broader cold trough northeast vs the western flank.

[Ntxw]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

Incredible but the real winter fun begins second week of Feb.

[rwfromkansas]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

Incredible but the real winter fun begins second week of Feb.

https://i.imgur.com/0NlE9BI.png

I love that. Slightly west but far enough east stuff can build here which is rare.

[wxman22]

12Z HRRR is in. The Euro also shows some very heavy snow up here. The topography of NW Texas helps in these shallow air setups.

[Brent]

12Z HRRR is in.

https://i.ibb.co/sv0F8ckh/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026012212-HRRR-SGP-winter-ptype-34-100.gif

Yeah I'm seeing more and more people buying the historic totals

[Captmorg70]

Just to put everything into perspective as we go into the 12z suite of models.

The “busts” and warmer temps for DFW and North Texas do not mean nothing is going to happen and it will be cold rain. This will still be a significant winter storm. Currently it looks to have multiple inches of sleet and snow before this all said and done.

This is much different than most winter storm setups for us. A lot of places will see over 2” of qpf which is wild. We’re not talking about a marginal setup and hopping to squeeze out an inch of snow if lucky. It will all come down to the cold air at the surface and aloft.

[HockeyTx82]

Okay so who is taking point on tracking the front and also posting if it's ahead of schedule or not based off of model guidance?

Buckle up we're less than 48 hours away from Showtime......