ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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funster
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3721 Postby funster » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:53 am

hurricanelandfall wrote:Who thinks NHC will make a final landfall point? Even though this is almost certainly going to make its final landfall within 120 hours, NHC likes to slow a storm down a lot if they are unsure about its final destination. I think they'll just point it towards the MX/TX border and wait for more model runs and possible center movement.


I was thinking that if they think it is might be going to Texas or Louisiana they will put Texas or Louisiana in the cone because at some point people have to get ready. Mass evacuations are no easy feat for some of those heavily populated areas - we all remember the death-filled tragedy that was the Rita evacuation.
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#3722 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:53 am

why is there no 94L image on the Storm2k map anymore?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3723 Postby poof121 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:54 am

They're probably replacing it with one for "Dolly".
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Re:

#3724 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:54 am

gatorcane wrote:why is there no 94L image on the Storm2k map anymore?


Its going to change to TS Dolly soon.Its authomatic.
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Re:

#3725 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:55 am

hurricanelandfall wrote:The NHC task is tricky...They must alert the US of a possible landfalling hurricane next week, but also be careful not to scare people. But, in trying not to scare people, they can not downplay it too much given the potential for rapid intensfiication.


How strong is "Dolly" supposed to get I wonder? What are the Upper-level winds in the GOM?
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Re:

#3726 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:55 am

gatorcane wrote:why is there no 94L image on the Storm2k map anymore?


Probably because NHC didn't issue a 12z ATCF point for 94L. Once Dolly is official it'll be reflected.
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Re: Re:

#3727 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:55 am

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:why is there no 94L image on the Storm2k map anymore?


Its going to change to TS Dolly soon.


Thanks.
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#3728 Postby Just Joshing You » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:55 am

omg no! 94l dissipated :grr:
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Re: Re:

#3729 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:56 am

gatorcane wrote:
hurricanelandfall wrote:The NHC task is tricky...They must alert the US of a possible landfalling hurricane next week, but also be careful not to scare people. But, in trying not to scare people, they can not downplay it too much given the potential for rapid intensfiication.


How strong is "Dolly" supposed to get I wonder? What are the Upper-level winds in the GOM?


Everything shows that the GOM is pretty normal by GOM standards AKA hot water and low shear.
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Re: Re:

#3730 Postby bob rulz » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:57 am

RL3AO wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
hurricanelandfall wrote:The NHC task is tricky...They must alert the US of a possible landfalling hurricane next week, but also be careful not to scare people. But, in trying not to scare people, they can not downplay it too much given the potential for rapid intensfiication.


How strong is "Dolly" supposed to get I wonder? What are the Upper-level winds in the GOM?


Everything shows that the GOM is pretty normal by GOM standards AKA hot water and low shear.


Indeed normal for the GOM is not a good thing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3731 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:57 am

I would expect the 5 day track toward BRO-TX with fairly wide cone - avg 5 day error is 300+ miles.
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#3732 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:58 am

CNN Breaking News:

"The nation was shocked when 94L disappeared from the maps of S2K after a week-long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Nonetheless, the forum of Active Storms comments that it's because Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Western Caribbean. There is more to come." :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3733 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:59 am

Well this should be interesting. It's about time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3734 Postby lrak » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:59 am

you can really see the LL inflow now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3735 Postby Comanche » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:03 am

I feel sorry for all the guys that went home short natural gas and crude over the weekend! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3736 Postby robbielyn » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:03 am

What is surprising me this season is the tenacity these storms are having they just won't die. And they are still dealing with the shear and other forces but they hang on. I think "it's dead jim" will be far and few between. It's more like 'it ain't over til the fat lady sings" season. And that makes for an awesome tracking season.

Cyclone eye do you have a climatology map on here that shows where the storms track for each month?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3737 Postby Frank P » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:04 am

Although its not official yet as Dolly, you still have to give credit to 94L as being one tough and persistent wave... I've been just amazed at the number of it "is" or "isn't" going to develop posted about this system.. that what makes tracking these things so interesting.. seems like they always have a surprise down the road too... sometimes good, sometime not so good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3738 Postby poof121 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:05 am

What are the chances that the center relocates under that large area of convection to the north? And what would be the possible implications to the future track?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3739 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:06 am

GOM temps:

Image
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Re:

#3740 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:07 am

gatorcane wrote:why is there no 94L image on the Storm2k map anymore?


Because ATCF dropped it by renumbering it to AL042008. That will be visable when F/A #1 is released by NHC.

s2k and I use the same software for maps so this is a question I hear alot ;)

Scott
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http://www.midatlanticwx.com
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