ATL: IKE Discussion

[Rainband]

NHC is currently North of most global models 120+ Hours out.....another south shift coming.

South shift would be good

[wxman57]

Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?

I'm befuddled...

You can't use Vortex Messages to estimate short-term motion. They do not pinpoint the center of the eye, just wherever the lowest pressure is found in the center of Ike's 28-30nm wide eye. The VDM could be 5 or more miles from the center, either side of the track. Your calculation of a heading could be off 10-15 degrees that way, maybe more. The only way to measure motion is longer term.

I measure a 3hr motion toward 270 deg. at 12.6 kts. That's due west. I pulled up the 2045Z satellite and the 2345Z satellite in a high res loop. Set a point in the center of the eye on the 2045Z image, advance to the 2345Z image and put my cursor in the center. GARP gives me a heading and distance.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for the clarifications... I suspected that the actual positions may be slightly skewed.

[tolakram]

West ... ish

[Vortex]

Max Mayfield just stated "We need to keep a close eye on any slow downs with Ike and the models tonight with the 5am advisory will provide crucial information as they will have ingested critical information from recon today. Also noted, that ALL computer models forecasted a typhoon to miss the phillipines early this year with a turn to the north which never materialized and they took a direct hit" Exerpt from the local special with max at 8pm.

[fasterdisaster]

NHC is currently North of most global models 120+ Hours out.....another south shift coming.

South shift would be good

Not necessarily, because at this point I'm seriously wondering if it could go SOUTH of Cuba. Unless you meant for Florida, in which case, you're right.

[fasterdisaster]

A slowdown with Ike would cause a more northern motion, correct?

I also would like to point out that recon doesn't put it WSW but only a hair south of west which I would agree with. Still that isn't as far south as forecast.

[shah8]

I do that too. But with an envelope, mark distance from 22' with a pen, and hold it up against a monitor. I just use the center of the apparent eye. Believe me, if anything, the last two hours is an infinistimal smidge north of west.

[Rainband]

We are all here for different reasons, some to learn and some to teach. Rudeness will not be tolerated on S2K that's what sets us apart. We have worked very hard to maintain a board that is separate from the rest and second to none. We take our rules very serious.Please respect all fellow posters and educate them if you can. Don't degrade them...we are all entitled to our opinions and we are all entitled to respect

[fasterdisaster]

Thx for that Rainband.

Also, using satellite only I don't think there's denying that he's north of west of the last forecast point.

[cpdaman]

well max just said we in s. fl need to watch for slowdowns

got a question? were the models forecasting this to slow down a bit tonite/sunday?

[Cristina]

Can someone please tell me how bad do you think it will it be for the people living in Havana? I have relatives living there and they said it was pretty bad when Gustav passed and had a lot of damages.. I'm sure you all know that is not easy in Cuba to get your home fixed after a hurricane since there's no building supplies.. I'm very concerned for their safety.. If it continues on this path, will they feel cat 3 or 4 winds? I would appreciate any input you can give me. thanks!

[jinftl]

How much more of a south (or west) track could we reasonably see through about the Tuesday 2pm forecast point...the cone is very generious in allowing for a track to the south of what is currently the 'black line'? Any more left shift and the Yucatan is under the gun.

For the Florida Keys to even be south of the cone of uncertainty..given the margin of error that even a west track through Cuba would have....you would almost need to see a Yucatan track develop after Cuba.

NHC is currently North of most global models 120+ Hours out.....another south shift coming.

They did the same thing with Gustav and did very well with it so I wouldn't question them if
they don't change it dramatically.

[fasterdisaster]

well max just said we in s. fl need to watch for slowdowns

got a question? were the models forecasting this to slow down a bit tonite/sunday?

Sorry for not having specifics but I believe a couple were. And if it slowed this would be farther north because he will be farther east when the ridge breaks down.

[tolakram]

I can't detect any north of west motion in this loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-70&map=latlon&zoom=1&info=ir&quality=90&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1200&height=800&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=white


Build your own, this time zoomed in a bit closer.

[cycloneye]

tolakram post your chart with the latest 8 PM position.

[PTPatrick]

they are dead on with models until the last 2 points...and they dont change that at the drop of a hat. The models will continue to change. They will likely change the 3 day track very little if at all then show the 5 day point a hair west of where it was at 5pm.

[fasterdisaster]

Can someone please tell me how bad do you think it will it be for the people living in Havana? I have relatives living there and they said it was pretty bad when Gustav passed and had a lot of damages.. I'm sure you all know that is not easy in Cuba to get your home fixed after a hurricane since there's no building supplies.. I'm very concerned for their safety.. If it continues on this path, will they feel cat 3 or 4 winds? I would appreciate any input you can give me. thanks!

Using the CURRENT forecast ONLY, they will likely only feel TS-force winds and will only receive minimal damage. HOWEVER, if the storm moves even a little north OR south of the track they could receive Cat-2 or so winds. Right now he is not on course for that, however things could easily change and you should keep tuned to S2k and official products.

[tolakram]

[Derek Ortt]

major concern during the next 24 hours.

How much rain will Haiti get. Remember, they just had more than 500 deaths from Hanna. Any rainfall will be catastrophic for them