ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[tolakram]

[Evil Jeremy]

I expect all the Hurricane watches and warnings discontinued, and Ida downgraded to a strong TS undergoing the ET transition by the end of the hour.

[Dean4Storms]

Ida is still moving toward the South AL to western FL Panhandle coast, if she hooks eastward anywhere it will put her into the Panhandle, she is not going to turn on a dime folks.

Convection is re-firing over the center in the last couple hours, we could see her try to level out intensity wise for awhile if that trend continues!

[Blown Away]

IMO, if you like to watch weather this is the prefect situation. There will be some nice TS conditions felt over most of the Panhandle. If it were me I'd be out on the porch with my coffee watching.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I think they back her down to a TS. Still wonder if we don't see some gusts approaching hurricane force where the pressure gradient tightens the most.

[HURAKAN]

12 hours ago:



Now:



They go down fast.

[jlauderdal]

IMO, if you like to watch weather this is the prefect situation. There will be some nice TS conditions felt over most of the Panhandle. If it were me I'd be out on the porch with my coffee watching.

absolutely, the whole setup since the SW carib has been fascinating which makes you take notice when the board goes so quiet, this is more interesting then a cat 5 sitting out in the atlantic with nowhere to go but to the kill zone in the north atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Ida now.

[RNGR]

Yea, I think they back her down to a TS. Still wonder if we don't see some gusts approaching hurricane force where the pressure gradient tightens the most.

mhm i think that the tight gradient will make up for some of her weakening. i also think that the center will move about 50-75 miles north of the forecast line before turning eastward. looking at the wv loop of the conus, there doesnt seem to be a huge push from the north that would cause Ida to turn east or even southeast any time soon.

[PTPatrick]

Yea, I think they back her down to a TS. Still wonder if we don't see some gusts approaching hurricane force where the pressure gradient tightens the most.

Not that models are of much use any more but I notices on both the GFDL and HWRF at 06z, that despite the current weakening the winds increased a little upon approach with land and it fact GFDL still showed hurricane force winds over the Mississippi sound offshore Pascagoula/Mobile county. Perhaps the model was feeling that pressure gradient? Should be ineteresting none the less. It aint every day you get to see a storm go extratropical like its hitting Canada over the northen gulf.

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

[cycloneye]

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like it has become decoupled , low level spin moving north and mid level moving to the NE.

[Sabanic]

That is right over our heads here

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG
THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


WTNT41 KNHC 091454
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE DATA THAT SUPPORTED HURRICANE INTENSITY WERE
OBTAINED AROUND 07Z...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS
BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SHORTLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z SHOWED
WINDS OF 50-55 KT IN THE CORE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE INSTRUMENT
DID NOT QUITE RESOLVE THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 60 KT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE
CYCLONE AROUND 18Z.

WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS.

THE LAST AIRCRAFT CENTER FIX SHOWED THE 700 MB- AND SURFACE CENTERS
DECOUPLING...AND SINCE THEN THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
340/15. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF IDA IS LOSING SIGNIFICANCE IN
TERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM. STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS ARE MOVING WELL
AHEAD OF THE CENTER. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IDA
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 26.5N 88.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 28.6N 88.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 88.2W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Frank P]

That is right over our heads here

Track shifted a tad west.. too crazy.. still tropical as it hits the coast.. I plan to sit on the porch this evening to watch what action comes my way on the beach in biloxi.. should be a nice off shore breeze... sure glad this didn't crop up on Aug or Sept.. pucker pressure would have gone up quite a bit.... fitting conclusion to a great hurricane season for the MS coast.. I can only hope next year is as good... thanks Mother Nature...

[PTrackerLA]

Actually looks like convection is increasing over the center, looks a little better over the past hour on the visible loops. I can see this maintaing 70mph to the coast. With the track a little further east could actually have some TS conditions in SE LA, New Orleans later today if bands rotate through. Still impressive we are even talking about a tropical storm on November 9th in the gulf...

[attallaman]

That is right over our heads here

Track shifted a tad west.. too crazy.. still tropical as it hits the coast.. I plan to sit on the porch this evening to watch what action comes my way on the beach in biloxi.. should be a nice off shore breeze... sure glad this didn't crop up on Aug or Sept.. pucker pressure would have gone up quite a bit.... fitting conclusion to a great hurricane season for the MS coast.. I can only hope next year is as good... thanks Mother Nature...

Frank P:

Since the NHC has moved the track back towards us will we still receive some wind and rain much like TS Bill a few years ago or will it be a much weaker system? Why the shift back towards us from FL? Enjoy your porch tonight.

[attallaman]

Actually looks like convection is increasing over the center, looks a little better over the past hour on the visible loops. I can see this maintaing 70mph to the coast. With the track a little further east could actually have some TS conditions in SE LA, New Orleans later today if bands rotate through. Still impressive we are even talking about a tropical storm on November 9th in the gulf...

With the track a little further E or did you mean to say W?

[Kennethb]

One observation from Baton Rouge is that there are no LL cumulus clouds racing across the sky which you would normally have in a tropical system, suggesting some dry air being entrained at lower levels.