ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ncweatherwizard]

Canadian and NCEP ensemble members are still pretty widely spread. Some of the Canadian members take this thing as far west as the north-Central Gulf in five days. A couple of the NCEP members that maintain a tropical cyclone keep the system well offshore Florida. And furthermore, the NCEP has generally been underspread as well.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 12&type=PR

Past experience suggests that we aren't really good at forecasting the TCs that traverse the Caribbean nations with terrain unless we get lucky and correctly guess how the intensity will be affected by the land. I think this is a case in which there is a larger than normal chance that the center falls outside the cone in 4-5 days.

Scott

[CDO62]

this is by far the best historical tracks site..

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

Great link. Thanks.

[Bocadude85]

Extrap motion is interesting, I think its interesting because the more westerly models stick with the extrap for a little longer whilst the eastern models go further WNW then the current motion.

The TVCN is a little south and west of the current NHC track. I wonder why that is when it appears some of the models have shifted east?

[plasticup]

Lol alright well you know what I meant. Either way this thing is still closer to 48 hours than 36 hours from landfall. Therefore the watch still is more appropriate atm, at least for the next 12 hours, though it may be re-upgraded whenever they feel its necessary.

I agree with the meteorology, but if a foreign government overrules them, what are they going to do? The Dominican Republic is sovereign - they could issue a hurricane watch and an asteroid warning if they wanted.

[Portastorm]

00z Tropical Models
http://img807.imageshack.us/img807/6930/storm05.gif

The Bam models look odd with such a sharp recurve and almost look like they would continue to circle around in a cyclonic loop East then southeast then south then southewest if the time extended further out?

The BAM models, although statistical/dynamical, are based on a GFS background. Perhaps the recurve shown merely reflects what the GFS showed in the 18z sun.

[Aric Dunn]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am surprised the NHC cone is that far west. I do think we will see it shift right over the next couple of advisories as the models seem to be shifting back right. Plus the quicker it organizes the more it will feel the weakness.

I still do not see this as a Florida storm yet. Still calling for it to pass far enough to the east and see it as more of an issue for the Bahamas.

[BigB0882]

The CLP5 track would probably be the worst-case scenario; skirts all the islands except for the tip of Cuba and continues into the Gulf, similar to Gustav. Obviously not that concerning as it's the only model showing it right now, but if the models continue to shift west it's something to keep an eye on.

That "model" simply shows you what would typically happen based on climatology. It doesn't take into account any of the factors that steer a storm or hurricane, only past events. I never pay attention to it other than for entertainment and historical perspective.

[Aric Dunn]

I notice some of the grey lines lol ,... in that image anyway.. apxx are doing a almost loops..

another Jeanne type ???

[Aric Dunn]

the bam shallow is a strange track for sure..

[Portastorm]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Wondering the same thing ... darn good question!

[AdamFirst]

The CLP5 track would probably be the worst-case scenario; skirts all the islands except for the tip of Cuba and continues into the Gulf, similar to Gustav. Obviously not that concerning as it's the only model showing it right now, but if the models continue to shift west it's something to keep an eye on.

The Clipper model (or CLP5) is based on climatology only.

[knotimpaired]

all tracks within 20 miles of present location... florida florida florida.. lol

Please tell. This brings back some models through PR.

My I have a link please?

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am surprised the NHC cone is that far west. I do think we will see it shift right over the next couple of advisories as the models seem to be shifting back right. Plus the quicker it organizes the more it will feel the weakness.

I still do not see this as a Florida storm yet. Still calling for it to pass far enough to the east and see it as more of an issue for the Bahamas.

must wait for data to be assimilated into models. 00z maybe but 12z for sure will have plenty of data. will no way more mid day tomorrow.

[MGC]

Just finished cooking up some crow....anyway, called my sister in Ft Lauderdale that Hurricane Emily might be on her doorstep by the weekend.....MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol alright well you know what I meant. Either way this thing is still closer to 48 hours than 36 hours from landfall. Therefore the watch still is more appropriate atm, at least for the next 12 hours, though it may be re-upgraded whenever they feel its necessary.

Yeah, but if a foreign government overrules them, what are they going to do? The Dominican Republic is sovereign - they could issue a hurricane watch and an asteroid warning if they wanted.

Well that hasnt happened yet so I dont really see what the problem is. Im just answering the question that I was asked, which is "why did they go from warning to watch?" Well the warning was either an impulsive decision or a mistake, and was reversed since its more than 36 hours from landfall. So, thats why.

[plasticup]

all tracks within 20 miles of present location... florida florida florida.. lol

Please tell. This brings back some models through PR.

My I have a link please?

These aren't models. They are storms that passed near to where Emily is now. Some were already strong, some were weakening, and ALL of them had a different synoptic setup than our current one. Don't place any faith in these historical charts at all. They are irrelevant when considering the future of individual storms. Their only value lies in identifying seasonal trends.

[Evil Jeremy]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Wondering the same thing ... darn good question!

I always thought that each BAM run was based off the previous suite's data. As in, 00z using 18z data. Is that not the case?

[Aric Dunn]

being that the NAM has been doing pretty well with the ridging ( not storm track) and trough strength Im curious what the 00z will be.

[knotimpaired]

all tracks within 20 miles of present location... florida florida florida.. lol

Please tell. This brings back some models through PR.

My I have a link please?

Luis,

Do you know where these models came from?