ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Riptide]

I dont think we can write off Debby yet. The shear above her has relaxed, circulation evident on radar and thunderstorms trying to fire up closer to center.

Yeah, it's definitely not dead....lol.

[artist]

FLC105-251445-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120625T1445Z/
POLK FL-
1033 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR EASTERN
POLK COUNTY...

AT 1029 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR POINCIANA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
HAINES CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
POINCIANA.

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251433
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 24 20120625
142600 2552N 08224W 8462 01541 0108 +160 +159 211051 052 034 001 00
142630 2554N 08226W 8459 01546 0108 +160 //// 210049 050 033 001 01
142700 2555N 08227W 8462 01543 0109 +163 +162 209047 048 034 001 00
142730 2556N 08228W 8461 01543 0105 +165 +161 208046 047 033 001 00
142800 2557N 08230W 8462 01542 0110 +158 //// 210044 045 034 001 01
142830 2559N 08231W 8461 01541 0107 +161 //// 209046 047 034 000 01
142900 2600N 08232W 8462 01541 0104 +166 +160 206046 047 035 001 00
142930 2601N 08234W 8461 01543 0109 +160 //// 206045 045 035 001 01
143000 2602N 08235W 8461 01542 0108 +157 //// 206045 046 034 002 01
143030 2604N 08236W 8461 01540 0100 +166 +155 206044 044 034 000 00
143100 2605N 08238W 8461 01537 0099 +165 +155 207042 043 034 000 00
143130 2606N 08239W 8459 01540 0103 +160 +160 211042 042 033 002 00
143200 2607N 08240W 8461 01539 0103 +160 +158 211041 041 036 000 00
143230 2608N 08242W 8459 01540 0102 +160 +160 207040 041 035 001 03
143300 2610N 08243W 8462 01536 0100 +160 //// 206040 041 034 001 01
143330 2611N 08244W 8461 01536 0102 +158 //// 206040 040 034 002 01
143400 2612N 08246W 8461 01534 0100 +158 //// 207041 042 035 001 01
143430 2613N 08247W 8461 01534 0098 +160 +159 206040 040 032 001 00
143500 2615N 08248W 8461 01529 0092 +162 +157 205039 040 033 001 00
143530 2616N 08250W 8459 01530 0081 +165 +162 202038 039 033 000 03
$$
;

[jdray]

what are the factors that will stop Debby from regenerating east of FL?

Lack of low-level convergence, dissipating circulation.

So for selfish reason and slightly off topic, any ideas on what the weather will be like in St. Augustine Thursday-Sunday? I'm hoping that she will have cleared out by then, much less re-strengthen nearby.

Thanks!

Depends upon what Debby does, but St Auggie will still be drying out if not still worrying about rain. There will be a lot of leftover moisture in the area, so there will be some good rains still.
From NWS JAX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...
...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TS DEBBY CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. A BRIEF DRY SLOT IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WILL INCORPORATE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WITH
THIS SLOT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAINS FILL BACK
IN FOR THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST AREAS AS
ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN OBS TRENDS...AND FORECAST OF A BIT HIGHER WINDS...WILL
EXPAND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO ALL OF NE FL. GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. WITH THE CURRENT FCST TRACK
OF DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTH...WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TNGT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM IS WHETHER ANY MECHANISM IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DISLODGE DEBBY FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS...AND
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS KEEP DEBBY IN THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL PULLS DEBBY ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT HAS NO SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE NEW 25/00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL KEEPS
DEBBY PARKED NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS WEEK.
OUR REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE HAVE THUS RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF MOS. WE
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THURSDAY TO HIGH END SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND HPC PROGS DEPICT AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES-PLUS OF QPF
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHERE GROUNDS ARE CURRENTLY SATURATED. GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAINFALL INTO
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS OUR
DAILY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF DEBBY STALLS AS
SOME OF THE LONG-TERM MODELS INDICATE...WE MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND DURING FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.

[Dave]

[EmeraldCoast93]

The forecast for us in coastal Okaloosa County, FL is interesting (from NWS Mobile/Pensacola)

Today...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87 to 92. Inland...northeast winds 20 to 30 mph becoming 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Along the coast... Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

But fast forward to Wednesday...

Wednesday...Very windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 90s inland...in the upper 80s along the coast. Inland...northeast winds 30 to 40 mph becoming north 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Along the coast...northeast winds 35 to 45 mph becoming north 40 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 60 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

I wonder what they're seeing... it doesn't mention anything about strengthening winds in their AFD.

[adam0983]

Captain Krik has anyone see Dr. Mccoy? No Captain we have not see Dr. Mccoy. Captain Kirk someone needs to find DR. Mccoy I need to ask him the status of Tropical Storm Debby. Captain we have found Dr. Mccoy. Dr. Mccoy what is the Status of Tropical Storm Debby? This a very dead storm captain. How dead Dr. Mccoy? Very dead captain? Thank you Dr. Mccoy I will inform Spock immediately of these new developments.

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 251448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

WTNT34 KNHC 251451
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA
COAST...WARNINGS ADJUSTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

WTNT44 KNHC 251451
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DEBBY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN A FRAGMENTED BAND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS AFFECTING THE STORM. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF DEBBY HAS INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING AND COOLING
UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE AND MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. WITH DRY AIR LURKING AND
WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN LINE
WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD SHORT-TERM MOTION.
AT THE MOMENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT MOTION REPRESENTS
A MEANDERING OR A MORE DECIDED MOTION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...DEBBY
IS TRAPPED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING IN BETWEEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAUSING DEBBY TO MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
COULD LEAVE DEBBY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENT AGAIN AFTER THAT TIME.
SINCE YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY THE UKMET NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION
BY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 28.6N 85.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[tolakram]

Latest

[Dave]

I have to go..someone else please pick up the pictures.

[Dave]

For Hurricane Andrew...

000
URNT15 KNHC 251443
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 25 20120625
143600 2617N 08251W 8473 01502 0054 +169 +158 203038 038 032 002 00
143630 2618N 08252W 8454 01525 0074 +170 +159 204038 039 033 002 00
143700 2619N 08254W 8463 01513 0073 +168 +160 207038 039 032 002 00
143730 2621N 08255W 8465 01513 0074 +169 +158 206038 038 033 001 03
143800 2622N 08256W 8458 01520 0074 +170 +160 207037 038 032 002 03
143830 2623N 08258W 8463 01516 0074 +169 +163 205037 038 033 002 00
143900 2624N 08259W 8462 01516 0071 +169 +167 208036 037 033 002 00
143930 2624N 08300W 8463 01514 0071 +169 +169 209036 037 034 002 00
144000 2625N 08302W 8463 01513 0070 +168 //// 209038 039 035 001 01
144030 2626N 08303W 8457 01518 0074 +160 //// 208037 038 031 004 01
144100 2627N 08305W 8457 01514 //// +161 //// 211035 036 030 005 01
144130 2629N 08306W 8471 01505 0073 +164 //// 210034 036 031 003 05
144200 2630N 08307W 8459 01518 0072 +169 //// 214036 037 034 001 01
144230 2631N 08309W 8462 01513 0071 +168 +162 212036 036 033 003 03
144300 2632N 08309W 8457 01517 0070 +171 +151 210036 037 /// /// 03
144330 2634N 08310W 8461 01516 0071 +175 +140 213034 035 028 001 03
144400 2635N 08311W 8463 01520 0078 +175 +135 213035 035 027 001 00
144430 2637N 08313W 8455 01526 0077 +175 +133 214035 035 030 001 00
144500 2638N 08314W 8463 01522 0079 +175 +132 214035 036 030 001 00
144530 2639N 08315W 8461 01524 0078 +175 +137 214036 036 030 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Change of forecast track at 10 AM CDT advisory.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST LAKE TOHO...KISSIMMEE...
INTERCESSION CITY...BUENA VENTURA LAKES...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT.

* AT 1045 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
POINCIANA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF HAINES CITY...MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
POINCIANA PLACE AND CAMPBELL

[gatorcane]

That forecast above looks almost like the GFS operational runs from late last week on this (GFS had it a bit more south over central Florida). Amazing how well the GFS did with this. King GFS?

[sweetpea]

That looks like it is going to come out right over me! At least it is just a depression, hopefully will be done with way before then. Geez that's Saturday!

[blazess556]

That forecast above looks almost like the GFS operational run from late last week on this (GFS had it a bit more south over central Florida). Amazing how well the GFS did with this. King GFS?

A broken clock is right twice a day or maybe even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while

[Riptide]

That forecast above looks almost like the GFS operational run from late last week on this (GFS had it a bit more south over central Florida). Amazing how well the GFS did with this. King GFS?

A broken clock is right twice a day or maybe even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while

[gatorcane]

That forecast above looks almost like the GFS operational run from late last week on this (GFS had it a bit more south over central Florida). Amazing how well the GFS did with this. King GFS?

A broken clock is right twice a day or maybe even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I would also add I think she moves out to the NE or E a bit quicker than what it is being shown currently by the NHC so I would expect some further adjustments. When I look at the Eastern U.S WV loop the trough continues to dig and I do think that Debby is feeling this and heading towards that weakness:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Only caveat is that she is not a vertically stacked system which would cause her to move the NE even quicker. As for intensity, I can't see much of that. There is too much dry air being pulled in, the shear remains higher than what we would want to see for intensification, and the SSTs are not that high in the NE GOM with upwelling happening also. Plus there is a lack of convection near the center.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Debby can be still around on Sunday?

[jdray]

Does anyone think that Debby can be still around on Sunday?

please god no. At least not near Florida.

Beryl and Debby are making Fay seem like a distant memory.