Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The pic has 2013 on the bottom one, confused me at first... Nice post though

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing a lot of "chatter" this morning online this morning from both very educated amateurs and private sector meteorologists speaking to a growing possibility of high-latitude blocking on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Combine that with an increasing, negative magnitude EPO.

Should that verify folks, wxman57 can draw meteograms until he's blue in the face but it won't mean anything. Eventually those model runs and meteograms will start showing the inevitable: a retrograding ridge-trough pattern over the US with no progressive flow. A pattern which would bring well below normal temperatures and a more active southern stream jet into play.

Again, if it happens ... my guess is late January into the first week or two of February should be a heckuva lot of fun for us. Well, most of us.

[natlib]

I'm seeing a lot of "chatter" this morning online this morning from both very educated amateurs and private sector meteorologists speaking to a growing possibility of high-latitude blocking on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Combine that with an increasing, negative magnitude EPO.

Should that verify folks, wxman57 can draw meteograms until he's blue in the face but it won't mean anything. Eventually those model runs and meteograms will start showing the inevitable: a retrograding ridge-trough pattern over the US with no progressive flow. A pattern which would bring well below normal temperatures and a more active southern stream jet into play.

Again, if it happens ... my guess is late January into the first week or two of February should be a heckuva lot of fun for us. Well, most of us.

So Portastorm....are you guessing that it is too early to plant tomatoes??????? It would be nice to have just one snow this year...

[Portastorm]

natlib, I wouldn't plant those 'maters just yet!

No sir I wouldn't.

[Tejas89]

Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.

[Portastorm]

Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.

OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.

I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.

[Stormcenter]

Great post and I agree.

Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.

OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.

I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.

[orangeblood]

Just to keep things grounded a bit.. FW morning discussion made a point to say no indications of a pattern shift heading into late January.

OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.

I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.

That comment from the FW office is extremely puzzling considering almost every major signal for a pattern shift to cold is in the long range forecast. Whether they realize it or not, their comments sometimes have huge implications for the economy particularly regarding natural gas/energy storage for potential extreme events such as this.

[dhweather]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

[Big O]

12z GFS Hour 192 shows textbook cross-polar flow setting up over North America. We just need the trough to dig a little more, which it might do in the longer range. Later model panels should be interesting.

[dhweather]

Oh, and here's a meteogram for Mesquite from the 00Z GFS - bone dry and above freezing through 192 hours.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Here's Canada's long range forecast for you folks (and Florida as well):



And you boys actually wish for this??? Winter wheat crops are also looking pretty iffy according to the met above.

[Portastorm]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

There's a big difference between making a forecast that far out based on what we know now as compared to making a general statement. I guess it all depends on how one defines a "major signal." Perhaps they'll consider the recently issued 12z GFS operational run a "major signal." The model shows for Texas a cross-polar flow and an active southern stream the last few days of January. You might want to extend your little meteogram to show what the model shows 240-360 hours.

[WeatherNewbie]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

You realize there is middle ground between "there are no signals" and "we are definitely getting snow," right?

[orangeblood]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

Run with something ? Most every tool (paid by the taxpayers) they have at their disposal points towards a major pattern change. They made a definitive statement that there are NO major signals for a pattern change....to some on this board that is not what we as taxpayers pay them for, "to go with their gut" per say. Long range forecasting has huge implications on energy storage and is not something to be taken lightly or conservatively for that matter. Better to be safe the sorry particularly during extreme cold outbreaks

[dhweather]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

There's a big difference between making a forecast that far out based on what we know now as compared to making a general statement. I guess it all depends on how one defines a "major signal." Perhaps they'll consider the recently issued 12z GFS operational run a "major signal." The model shows for Texas a cross-polar flow and an active southern stream the last few days of January. You might want to extend your little meteogram to show what the model shows 240-360 hours.

finishing that up right now, and some people are going to be happy.

[dhweather]

Meteogram from the 12Z GFS - 192+ hours

As soon as I can figure out how to change the scale, I will. In the meantime, what the model shows, it's below freezing and precip.

[dhweather]

From their perspective, would you run with something that MIGHT happen in 10-15 days? Especially if it can have significant economic impacts?? Or do you wait a few days, let the models do some more work and then start to change your opinion.

Run with something ? Most every tool (paid by the taxpayers) they have at their disposal points towards a major pattern change. They made a definitive statement that there are NO major signals for a pattern change....to some on this board that is not what we as taxpayers pay them for, "to go with their gut" per say. Long range forecasting has huge implications on energy storage and is not something to be taken lightly or conservatively for that matter. Better to be safe the sorry particularly during extreme cold outbreaks

They always play it conservative. Yes, I think there is a good chance of a significant pattern change around the first of February. They just aren't going to go out on a limb beyond 7 days, I've never seen them do that.

[Big O]

Check out snow depth across Texas from Hour 312 (12z GFS) onward. Some people in central, northeast, and southeast Texas are going to be happy and will certainly hope this verifies.

[dhweather]

Here is a the meteogram with the scale changed.