ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[amawea]

Someone posted that Victoria could only see 77 mph max wind ?? That was Claudette in 03. I don't think we will see cat 2 winds inland?

Don't make the mistake of assuming any of those forecasts are so precise. A landfalling hurricane will rarely have anything near its peak winds recorded inland. However, there's tons of variation from one location to the next. Maybe you'll see 50 max. Maybe you'll get a gust to 110. Don't fixate on those peak gust forecasts, and in any case, if you get 30" of rain that's going to be the killer.

And don't forget. These hurricanes can be bad about spawning tornadoes, some canes spawn many and some a few. Just be aware that your in a hazardous area right now and more than likely through next Tuesday.

[Fountainguy97]

Umm the maximum wind speed certainly does matter. The difference between cat 2 and 3, although not life changing, is a big deal for the fact of a major hurricane land falling on the he continental US for many years. On a weather level yes it matters

[CryHavoc]

I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major

And yet it won't matter at all if this is a cat 2 or a cat 3. This ridiculous focus on maximum winds that 0.0000001% of the impacted area will feel needs to die.

Windfield has expanded, but obviously wind isnt the major concern. I'm more concerned about the pressure. If it continues to drop the storm surge will be way stronger than whatever the winds are.

5mph of wind difference is not the major concern with this storm. =\

[galaxy401]

Still a category 2 in the latest advisory.

[ALhurricane]

Well they kept it a 2 for now. Kind of surprised. It is darn close that's for sure.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AND WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[mrbagyo]

Looks like a solid cat 3 now, it finished the ERC - cat 4 isnt too far fetched.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hmmm...I wonder why they didnt raise the winds? They had verifiable dropsonde data that they defer to on pressure

[Kazmit]

I don't understand why they didn't upgrade it with the dropsonde evidence.

[RL3AO]

Well they kept it a 2 for now. Kind of surprised. It is darn close that's for sure.

As Ryan Maue said - It's a category 2.99

[Exalt]

Still a category 2 in the latest advisory.

Recon data did just come in, should be out in the 2PM EDT advisory.. scratch that

I'm curious as to why they didn't change it either.. They might gun it at 3PM. Also, NHC's servers are whack right now, I can barely load the site, the server load must be off the charts.

[CrazyC83]

Hmmm...I wonder why they didnt raise the winds? They had verifiable dropsonde data that they defer to on pressure

They probably felt the 102 kt dropsonde wasn't representative - may have been a mesovortex.

[CryHavoc]

Umm the maximum wind speed certainly does matter. The difference between cat 2 and 3, although not life changing, is a big deal for the fact of a major hurricane land falling on the he continental US for many years. On a weather level yes it matters

You're talking about 5-6mph of difference. That is not going to be a significant impact on storm damage. This is a strong dangerous hurricane either way. Whether it's "major" or not won't change the final death/damage tally much.

[dukeblue219]

Still a category 2 in the latest advisory.

Recon data did just come in, should be out in the 2PM EDT advisory..

The 2PM EDT is already out and it's 110mph.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Surprising they seemed to have disregarded the dropsonde reading.

[ALhurricane]

Well they kept it a 2 for now. Kind of surprised. It is darn close that's for sure.

As Ryan Maue said - It's a category 2.99

Well in this instance I would round up.

[drewschmaltz]

I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major

And yet it won't matter at all if this is a cat 2 or a cat 3. This ridiculous focus on maximum winds that 0.0000001% of the impacted area will feel needs to die.

I'm with you. Massive flooding, is going to create great losses. Structural, biological, financial, you name it. I think... excuse me... I hope those that are saying "I am staying here things aren't so bad" or "should I leave" are just trolling the board. I don't know what the emergency situation is over there but if you need to hear "GET OUT!" from this guy, then you've considerably underestimated what destruction a stationary storm like this is capable of. It seems to me that the best case scenario is bad and the worst case scenario is catastrophic. The forecasts seem to me a middle ground between these 2 with a 50/50 shot of it being worse.

[Sanibel]

945 here we go...


They must have averaged in the 88kt reading...

[BYG Jacob]

And yet it won't matter at all if this is a cat 2 or a cat 3. This ridiculous focus on maximum winds that 0.0000001% of the impacted area will feel needs to die.

Windfield has expanded, but obviously wind isnt the major concern. I'm more concerned about the pressure. If it continues to drop the storm surge will be way stronger than whatever the winds are.

5mph of wind difference is not the major concern with this storm. =\

That's what I said.

[Fountainguy97]

Umm the maximum wind speed certainly does matter. The difference between cat 2 and 3, although not life changing, is a big deal for the fact of a major hurricane land falling on the he continental US for many years. On a weather level yes it matters

You're talking about 5-6mph of difference. That is not going to be a significant impact on storm damage. This is a strong dangerous hurricane either way. Whether it's "major" or not won't change the final death/damage tally much.

Very true. But I'd still follow the maximum wind speed for the simple fact of historical significance.

Unfortunately it would take a miracle to keep many from seeing devastating amounts of rain.