ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Canadian right on my doorstep. UKMET with ominous cliffhanger. GFS continues westward trend.

Didn't want to stay up for the EURO but it looks like I may.

I'm here with you brother. SE Florida standing tall. Meanwhile, through 24 hours the HWRF seems right on track

[sma10]

In case anyone didn't realize it, one more SW shift like that by the GFS puts the Florida Peninsula in play. Two more possibly puts the Eastern GOM in play.

My prediction yesterday for Belize is starting to look less crazy...

[pcolaman]

Looks like GFS hits around 900mb and heads toward Raleigh. Recall it had a west move several hundred miles inland when it was going in around the Chesapeake Bay. It's 947 still around Raleigh maybe headed toward Roanoke. We'll have to see. Serious Cat 5 on the table. You don't want to be in the way of this one if the GFS is right.

Going to be furather west in my opinion.

Yeah, maybe so. I don't know. I thought it would show landfalls farther south a few times, but it didn't. Now it kind of has. That's 6 straight U.S. Landfalls for the GFS.

Let's hope it doesn't feel the pull of the front and decides to keep going west towards Mexico sry but getting serious now. Can the US handle another 100 billion in damages ?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Full CMC run

[Aric Dunn]

big shift in the GFS ..... though the GFS members are still showing central gulf possibilites. the more south this moves the more west shift we will see.

[pcolaman]

big shift in the GFS ..... though the GFS members are still showing central gulf possibilites. the more south this moves the more west shift we will see.

Agreed not good at all.

[Aric Dunn]

there is also a key thing to note .. I mentioned it earlier. the models that are trending more west also have a stronger system in the BOC. this is, of course, related to the timing and position of the trough. the EURO models that had central gulf or even northern Caribbean. track had a stronger system in the BOC.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Alot of catastrophic hits on those model runs above. Until the NHC has plot too support actual projected landfall area i myself don't put much weight on em at this range.
Still think a blended consensus is more reliable, plots run after the weekend should
be more inline when out liners are drooped.

[T'Bonz]

Glad these runs aren't accurate this far out. GFS put a strong 'cane right over me in Raleigh and I'm well inland! What is at at hour 210, a cat 4?

[otowntiger]

Sad thing is I don't think the westward trend is done! State of Florida on the dirty side ? Can't even fathom

Actually the trend could just as easily begin, on the very next run, trending back east and out to sea- we have to remind ourselves that we are still nearly a week out and these runs are typically considered 'fantasy' when we aren't paying as close attention.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,

I do recall that post. If that low does form down in the BOC how do you feel it affects the path of Irma.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Glad these runs aren't accurate this far out. GFS put a strong 'cane right over me in Raleigh and I'm well inland! What is at at hour 210, a cat 4?

They may be hyping. Shows a sub-900 category 5 at 194 then weakening inland

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF through 39 hours is almost step for step with the 18z. Maybe a hair slower.

[MWatkins]

The tend early in the new model cycle is not encouraging. GFS, CMC and UKMET are all SW of their 5-7 day positions vs. previous runs.

Small differences in storm size and the steering pattern will continue to evolve as we get into next week. Almost pointless to look at the deterministic results of where/when/if it hits in the long range, but if these shifts continue, the threat to some place in the SE US goes up.

Our approach is follow the plan, make a bunch of ice, make sure the generator works, then watch and wait.

Mike

[SouthFLTropics]

Hot off the press...00z GEFS Ensembles are starting to come in. Through 90 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

I do recall that post. If that low does form down in the BOC how do you feel it affects the path of Irma.

I think it is more of a response, as I mentioned, to the timing, development, and position of the trough that creates a more conducive environment for the BOC system to develop. I was only mentioning it as an indicator of the synoptic setup

[Aric Dunn]

The tend early in the new model cycle is not encouraging. GFS, CMC and UKMET are all SW of their 5-7 day positions vs. previous runs.

Small differences in storm size and the steering pattern will continue to evolve as we get into next week. Almost pointless to look at the deterministic results of where/when/if it hits in the long range, but if these shifts continue, the threat to some place in the SE US goes up.

Our approach is follow the plan, make a bunch of ice, make sure the generator works, then watch and wait.

Mike

miss your posts MIKE !!!

[Mouton]

The GFS is forecasting an almost record low pressure reading for a storm that may hit the US. This could rival the Labor Day storm of the 30s if it pans out. Regardless of whether it does get there or not, the most recent runs of models after the Euro seem to infer IRMA will miss the trough entirely. The next Euro will probably follow the west move and if it does all bets are off on an OTS senario for now.

If it misses the trough, it will get trapped between HP to the North and east and pushed west ward. IOW, it could go anywhere from North of Cuba to North Carolina. Anyone inside this area should be making plans for this one as it is nothing to trifle with given recent trends.

Follow the official postings from the NHC, the above is just my non professional opinion.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensembles appear to be shifting West in the 144 hour range...I'll post the trend shortly

[sma10]

The GFS is forecasting an almost record low pressure reading for a storm that may hit the US. This could rival the Labor Day storm of the 30s if it pans out. Regardless of whether it does get there or not, the most recent runs of models after the Euro seem to infer IRMA will miss the trough entirely. The next Euro will probably follow the west move and if it does all bets are off on an OTS senario for now.

If it misses the trough, it will get trapped between HP to the North and east and pushed west ward. IOW, it could go anywhere from North of Cuba to North Carolina. Anyone inside this area should be making plans for this one as it is nothing to trifle with given recent trends.

Follow the official postings from the NHC, the above is just my non professional opinion.

Yes, and even worse Irma is forecast to be much much larger than '35 which was very small