ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

1pm update has Beryl's heading at 330 degrees....that is almost NNW. Beryl starting to make the north turn......MGC

It technically is NNW, according to this nifty tool I found years ago. That's why NHC states it's NNW in the advisory.

[wx98]

As of right now, this isn’t a system capable of rapid intensification. I don’t care what it did previously, it seems to have been permanently disrupted by land interaction. This isn’t unusual, and something that has been seen many times before. I keep reading “just a few more hours” on here, but those hours are now running thin. This is comparatively more organized that yesterday, but not organized to see a quickly intensifying hurricane. At this point, the meager pressure drops are likely resulting in an expanding wind field (as I’ve been saying for 48 hours now) and not an increase in max winds.

Please research Humberto 2007. The fastest RI on record. TD to TS in 3 hrs then TD to high end Cat 1 with 15 miles
Before landfall in HS at 90mph

I’m well aware of that storm. A storm that happened 17 years ago has absolutely no bearing on the current situation…

[StormPyrate]

As of right now, this isn’t a system capable of rapid intensification. I don’t care what it did previously, it seems to have been permanently disrupted by land interaction. This isn’t unusual, and something that has been seen many times before. I keep reading “just a few more hours” on here, but those hours are now running thin. This is comparatively more organized that yesterday, but not organized to see a quickly intensifying hurricane. At this point, the meager pressure drops are likely resulting in an expanding wind field (as I’ve been saying for 48 hours now) and not an increase in max winds.

I do doubt this unfortunately, we have seen time and time again this storm does what is unexpected. Guess we will see, but still thinking it's going to a cat 2 at landfall.

Lots of folks would agree with that consensus though, it has really struggled to tighten up

[cycloneye]

Josh is still looking for the best area to ride it out. He is in Matagorda Bay in a town Palacios.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1810037127348183087

[HurricaneBelle]

https://i.imgur.com/x55tBV3.png

1979, Cat 5 Hurricane David (926 mb) hit Hispanola, and came off the island and headed for Florida. Organization looked excellent, outflow excellent, and hurricane warnings went up for S. and central Florida, and steady intensification forecast repeatedly until landfall. Two+ days later the highest winds recorded on land were at Ft. Pierce, were only 70 mph sustained. Point, looked great, Labor Day weekend, hot ocean, but not much re-intensification occurred to everyone's surprise,.

David gusted to mid 90’s from Jupiter to Ft. Pierce. There was heavy vegetation and roof damage.

Jim Leonard and myself were in the area, me in Jupiter, Jim in Ft. Pierce. The 95 mph GUST was recorded at the Coast Guard station, very exposed on the south side of the inlet to the northeast wind, which is on the short causeway from the mainland to the jetty into the ocean. Hence, winds in Ft Pierce itself on the mainland were less, for sure. The damage was typical for a high end tropical storm, with a few hurricane gusts; in a place where trees hadn't been wind trimmed in many years. This quote is from the great Wikipedia: "Some clapboard-style homes in the county suffered major damage, especially in Gifford and other low income communities" IE. shacks and other old poorly built domiciles.

Also David's strongest side was over water the whole time as it moved roughly parallel to the Florida east coast.

[wx98]

As of right now, this isn’t a system capable of rapid intensification. I don’t care what it did previously, it seems to have been permanently disrupted by land interaction. This isn’t unusual, and something that has been seen many times before. I keep reading “just a few more hours” on here, but those hours are now running thin. This is comparatively more organized that yesterday, but not organized to see a quickly intensifying hurricane. At this point, the meager pressure drops are likely resulting in an expanding wind field (as I’ve been saying for 48 hours now) and not an increase in max winds.

I do doubt this unfortunately, we have seen time and time again this storm does what is unexpected. Guess we will see, but still thinking it's going to a cat 2 at landfall.

Lots of folks would agree with that consensus though, it has really struggled to tighten up

Some here are seemingly struggling with the fact that it isn’t going to rapidly intensify to a major. There are core structural issues at play here and the dry air is a major inhibiting factor.

[Texashawk]

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdi ... peed_ms=80

Look at the hot towers and convection exploding counter-clockwise around the eye. This thing is really trying to close off the eyewall, and if that happens, look out

[tolakram]

I do doubt this unfortunately, we have seen time and time again this storm does what is unexpected. Guess we will see, but still thinking it's going to a cat 2 at landfall.

Lots of folks would agree with that consensus though, it has really struggled to tighten up

Some here are seemingly struggling with the fact that it isn’t going to rapidly intensify to a major. There are core structural issues at play here and the dry air is a major inhibiting factor.

What I'm struggling with is the matter of fact tone of the message. There is no good objective reason for claiming something won't happen, even if everything we see now points to a low end cat 1 at landfall.

[ROCK]

I am not struggling with anything but absolute proclamations.

[wx98]

Lots of folks would agree with that consensus though, it has really struggled to tighten up

Some here are seemingly struggling with the fact that it isn’t going to rapidly intensify to a major. There are core structural issues at play here and the dry air is a major inhibiting factor.

What I'm struggling with is the matter of fact tone of the message. There is no good objective reason for claiming something won't happen, even if everything we see now points to a low end cat 1 at landfall.

I gave my opinion just as everyone else has here. Is my opinion not allowed? Just because I state what I think is going to happen (which may not jive with most here apparently) doesn’t mean it should be discounted.

[Stratton23]

Whether this becomes a cat 1 or not doesnt really matter at this point, this is still going to be an extremely dangerous storm, with potentially severe impacts with power lines/ roof / tree damage, that cannot be underestimated despite this systems sloppy yet organized appearance

[tolakram]

Some here are seemingly struggling with the fact that it isn’t going to rapidly intensify to a major. There are core structural issues at play here and the dry air is a major inhibiting factor.

What I'm struggling with is the matter of fact tone of the message. There is no good objective reason for claiming something won't happen, even if everything we see now points to a low end cat 1 at landfall.

I gave my opinion just as everyone else has here. Is my opinion not allowed? Just because I state what I think is going to happen (which may not jive with most here apparently) doesn’t mean it should be discounted.

You made a declarative statement and then told us we were struggling with facts. I'd drop it for you own good and get back to stating opinions and not commenting on why you think others are wrong.

[tolakram]

[MississippiWx]

The outflow of Beryl is impressive. The upper level conditions now seem pristine. I believe it’s about to take off.

[HurricaneBelle]

As of right now, this isn’t a system capable of rapid intensification. I don’t care what it did previously, it seems to have been permanently disrupted by land interaction. This isn’t unusual, and something that has been seen many times before. I keep reading “just a few more hours” on here, but those hours are now running thin. This is comparatively more organized that yesterday, but not organized to see a quickly intensifying hurricane. At this point, the meager pressure drops are likely resulting in an expanding wind field (as I’ve been saying for 48 hours now) and not an increase in max winds.

Please research Humberto 2007. The fastest RI on record. TD to TS in 3 hrs then TD to high end Cat 1 with 15 miles
Before landfall in HS at 90mph

I’m well aware of that storm. A storm that happened 17 years ago has absolutely no bearing on the current situation…

Reminds me of a post I made in 2019: "It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours."

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The latest HWRF has this at 982 by 8pm. I think that's the metric to go on if rapid intensification is to be believed, otherwise chances for more than a cat 1 drop quickly, fortunately.

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

[cutterwx]

Please research Humberto 2007. The fastest RI on record. TD to TS in 3 hrs then TD to high end Cat 1 with 15 miles
Before landfall in HS at 90mph

I’m well aware of that storm. A storm that happened 17 years ago has absolutely no bearing on the current situation…

Reminds me of a post I made in 2019: "It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours."

Here is a god read on Humberto - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/67/6/2010jas3172.1.xml

Some environmental conditions are similar. However, Humberto's core was quite a bit more compact before undergoing RI. The fact that Beryl's core is still fairly broad further delays any onset of RI, even if it does occur. Not that we won't see quick strengthening, but several factors to consider.

[wx98]

I’m well aware of that storm. A storm that happened 17 years ago has absolutely no bearing on the current situation…

Reminds me of a post I made in 2019: "It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours."

Here is a god read on Humberto - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/67/6/2010jas3172.1.xml

Some environmental conditions are similar. However, Humberto's core was quite a bit more compact before undergoing RI. The fact that Beryl's core is still fairly broad further delays any onset of RI, even if it does occur. Not that we won't see quick strengthening, but several factors to consider.

Precisely. Understanding key differences like these is important to the understanding of the situation and that each situation is unique.

[aspen]

The latest HWRF has this at 982 by 8pm. I think that's the metric to go on if rapid intensification is to be believed, otherwise chances for more than a cat 1 drop quickly, fortunately.

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

Texas is lucky Beryl has taken forever to get its act together. Could’ve been at risk for a Cat 3 landfall if it mixed out the dry air and formed an eyewall by this morning, instead of still being in the middle of doing so right now.

[wx98]

The latest HWRF has this at 982 by 8pm. I think that's the metric to go on if rapid intensification is to be believed, otherwise chances for more than a cat 1 drop quickly, fortunately.

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

Yes time is ticking away fast and the organization isn’t coming along like it would need to. Just a broad high-end TS or Cat 1 should be coming into Texas in the morning.