ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Javlin
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3781 Postby Javlin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:57 am

12Z
Image

18Z
Image

Both are showing a weakness to the N then off to the NE

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/
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Re: Re:

#3782 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:00 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
easy does it...the coc has been east of the models since early this morning so you also need to look at what is actually verifying along with modeling, etc.


indeed.. just wondering what joe b on twitter is saying in terms of the models shifting eastward.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3783 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:00 am

actually the CMC is still left....the HWRF intensity...lol.....that is a cat 4 or more....seems a little much....
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#3784 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:01 am

rock...do you think yhese models are done shifting left and if not how far left do you think they can go?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3785 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:05 am

The weird thing is I would rather the models shift to the east coast where I am. Most of the worst weather is east of Isaac. I would get less flooding which worries me more then wind for this storm.
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Re: Re:

#3786 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:09 am

SFLcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
easy does it...the coc has been east of the models since early this morning so you also need to look at what is actually verifying along with modeling, etc.


indeed.. just wondering what joe b on twitter is saying in terms of the models shifting eastward.

im sure he is thrilled because he posted yesterday about east but he also had a west possibility and a cat 2/3 possibility..well you can follow him on twitter if you want to know what he is saying, back to model discussion
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Re:

#3787 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:12 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:rock...do you think yhese models are done shifting left and if not how far left do you think they can go?



I think they are locked in now in final destination (THE CONE)....I wouldnt rule out a slower movement in the long term just yet. GFS seems quick to eject...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3788 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:12 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:The weird thing is I would rather the models shift to the east coast where I am. Most of the worst weather is east of Isaac. I would get less flooding which worries me more then wind for this storm.


easy does it there fellow South Floridian...you are better on the dirty side of this system then you would be within an eyewall...this system certainly has the potential to be more that a TS, regardless we are likely much better off in terms of wind if this thing stays south of dade/broward
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Re: Re:

#3789 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:13 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
easy does it...the coc has been east of the models since early this morning so you also need to look at what is actually verifying along with modeling, etc.


More importantly..... The 12z Models aren't out yet (GFS/ECMWF)
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#3790 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:16 am

12z NAM Initialized

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3791 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:17 am

we are actually at the point where modeling is pointless for where this goes in the near term.......the only thing left IMO is intensity, and final landfall point other than the keys...time to watch the floaters for track thru the straits...
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#3792 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:18 am

Was it seriously too much to ask to wake up this morning...and find that Isaac had dissipated? haha Oh well...ready for more models today. Hopefully things start trending less and less intensity wise. Thanks in advance to everyone who posts the model runs and graphics. It is appreciated much much more than you know.
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#3793 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:18 am

12z NAM +12 (Alley is there)

Image
12z NAM +24 (Alley is closing)

Image
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#3794 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:21 am

12z NAM +30

Image

12z NAM +36

Image
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Re: Re:

#3795 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:24 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
easy does it...the coc has been east of the models since early this morning so you also need to look at what is actually verifying along with modeling, etc.



Right on-the far right as well.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3796 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:27 am

NAM farther left through the straits....at 39hrs
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3797 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:27 am

not going to matter that much though....FL still feels the brunt...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3798 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:28 am

ROCK wrote:NAM farther left through the straits....at 39hrs


wait, i thought you said it was pointless to look at models in the near term... :P
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3799 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:29 am

jlauderdal wrote:
ROCK wrote:NAM farther left through the straits....at 39hrs


wait, i thought you said it was pointless to look at models in the near term... :P




yeah well it hooked me back in.....I was going to walk away....dang it....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3800 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:30 am

ROCK wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
ROCK wrote:NAM farther left through the straits....at 39hrs


wait, i thought you said it was pointless to look at models in the near term... :P




yeah well it hooked me back in.....I was going to walk away....dang it....


its addictive i know...maybe we define near term as 12 hours and that would probably be pointless then
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