ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

I'm mad that they didn't upgrade it. People get scared when it comes to rising intensities and it might give the on the fence people the kick in the butt to leave and get the hell outta dodge.

[Kingarabian]

945mb and still only 95kts? What's with the p/w difference. I thought I would be waking up to a cat.4 with its satellite representation 7 hours ago.

Nonetheless Harvey is still an extremely strong storm. Does not need to be a major for there to be catastrophic damage. Hopefully people in its path already evacuated.

[RL3AO]

Well they kept it a 2 for now. Kind of surprised. It is darn close that's for sure.

As Ryan Maue said - It's a category 2.99

Well in this instance I would round up.

Well NHC uses the floor function I guess.

[LearnedHat]

Umm the maximum wind speed certainly does matter. The difference between cat 2 and 3, although not life changing, is a big deal for the fact of a major hurricane land falling on the he continental US for many years. On a weather level yes it matters

If people and property are concerns #1 and #2, the interest in the record book impact for weather junkies, although intriguing, has to somewhere around #27

[wxman57]

That dropsonde reading of 102 kts is not a 1-minute average, but I suspect that stronger winds exist elsewhere, so it's probably up to Cat 3.

[hurricaneCW]

Umm the maximum wind speed certainly does matter. The difference between cat 2 and 3, although not life changing, is a big deal for the fact of a major hurricane land falling on the he continental US for many years. On a weather level yes it matters

In terms of impacts we're literally talking about a 1 mph difference so it means nothing but I guess if the numbers mean so much to people then sure w.e. Yes we haven't had a major hit us in 12 years but we've seen storms like Sandy, Matthew, and now Harvey so does it matter if we continue the streak bc it shouldn't.

It won't help save lives and prevent Harvey's destruction just bc he doesn't hit as a major that's for sure.

[Hurricane_Apu]

The NHC is always extra conservative at major intensity milestones... INVEST>TC, TS>Hurricane, Hurricane > Major.

Their forecasting skill is still second to none, but when classifying storms they act like picky art critics.

[Cunxi Huang]

banding eye...?

[Steve]

Despite the uptick, there are a couple of positives I see. First it's got a big envelope, but it's a fairly concentrated storm. Secondly, it's the wrong time of day for Harvey to peak. He's making a run for the coast now, and while it's pretty concentric and nasty in the outer center of circulation, it could be way worse. That doesn't mean to infer that it won't tighten or explode in a few hours at approach. That remains to be seen. Also lucky for the coast so far, it's a relatively weak and diffuse west side of the storm. That was the North side of Isaac in 2012. Not having those advance few inches of rain makes a giant difference when the winds get up to gale and beyond. However, it won't really matter because it's going to be destructive anyway. On the "bad" scale for first landfall, I'd give it a 7 to 7.5.

What do you think far as 2nd landfall If any...

I don't know. If the 00Z European was close to being right, probably the Triangle (Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange) or Lake Charles MSA get the beating . I don't mean to be a wimp on a call, but the way the models have agreed, disagreed, moved, moved back, etc., I just don't have much confidence even in the short term. Some bring it around San Antonio and rain it out. Some keep it in South Texas or NE Mexico and rain it out. Some loop and bring back to and off the coast. Some come back close to the coast. With those types of inconsistencies between the ones I like to look at, when in doubt, see what the European does and work from that. I'm not saying it's going to be right. But I usually have to figure out what it's doing in order to get a better understanding and then decide if I agree or disagree with it.

[RL3AO]

102 kt is an instantaneous reading. No other wind data supports 100 knots yet.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm mad that they didn't upgrade it. People get scared when it comes to rising intensities and it might give the on the fence people the kick in the butt to leave and get the hell outta dodge.

Now that does have some merit. For some reason whenever people hear Category 1-2 they don't seem too worried but as soon as they hear 3 then they start leaving. Never understood why that is especially given our damaging history with Cat 1-2 storms.

[BYG Jacob]

Pressure is starting to drop again.

[Hammy]

102 kt is an instantaneous reading. No other wind data supports 100 knots yet.

Gusts essentially?

[ScottNAtlanta]

That dropsonde reading of 102 kts is not a 1-minute average, but I suspect that stronger winds exist elsewhere, so it's probably up to Cat 3.

I feel vindicated

[Ntxw]

Board has been warned of strict moderation currently active. Any posts not in good faith or constructive may be deleted without warning.

Stay safe, post friendly, and keep those in the way of the storm in your prayers.

[MGC]

Radar eye is much larger since EWRC. Gotta keep an eye on the eye to see if it starts to contract. Larger wind field should equate to larger surge....MGC

[Exalt]

I'm mad that they didn't upgrade it. People get scared when it comes to rising intensities and it might give the on the fence people the kick in the butt to leave and get the hell outta dodge.

Now that does have some merit. For some reason whenever people hear Category 1-2 they don't seem too worried but as soon as they hear 3 then they start leaving. Never understood why that is especially given our damaging history with Cat 1-2 storms.

I'm not saying that they're stupid for not upgrading, however when the NHC is quick to upgrade storms to TS status when they look like sheared messes barely worth a name, they really should be consistent in their urgent ways of upgrading especially when it comes to historical standards and these people who seem unphased by Cat 1's and Cat 2's. Especially considering the flooding and storm surge potential from Harvey will be of a Cat 3 or exceeding level, it really makes sense to.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Is it starting to upwell cooler water?

There is no cooler water to upwell in this area. The warm water runs very deep in this area. Any upwelling just upwells more warm water

So it's basically a buffet for tropical storms? That doesn't sound very reassuring...

[CrazyC83]

People are STILL on the beaches right now based on coverage from Corpus Christi. People are so foolish...

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon headed back in to the eye I think. Maybe wanna drop another sonde and verify the other reading. If they get another cat 3 reading in the eyewall drop, They will probably upgrade imo.