Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

That first wave hits me hard on the 6z Euro, I don't even need to worry about the 2nd wave. I'll happy take the 6-8" it gives me lol.

[WinterMax]

That first wave hits me hard on the 6z Euro, I don't even need to worry about the 2nd wave. I'll happy take the 6-8" it gives me lol.

We get ignored here in Central Louisiana by this weather, the cold stays to our west, sort of like it did last February, but even less this time around. I feel like this was my last shot at winter precip. I hope you guys get slammed with snow. As for here, I will just prepare for a mid February torch, and.enjoy it.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow the Fox 4 WAPP for my area has trended colder.

Showing single digits one night, staying below freezing through basically Saturday (don't see getting to 36 on Friday with snow) and anywhere from 4-8 of snow expected (Taking the 3-5 + 1-3 forecasted Wednesday and Thursday)

That escalated quickly.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 this morning said get the bread, milk and eggs and roads will be bad Thursday.

Guess the red button has been pushed.

[Snowman67]

Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.

If we end up losing power consider yourself lucky.

Having a 6 and 4 year old that will not be fun nor was it fun last year. We managed but I got sick one day from all the stress and just being cold. My house was 40F inside.

[funster]

Nuisance impacts must be like when melting snow falls on you from a tree or you step in a slushy puddle... 18% chance of this happening

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1487775604204204033

[Cpv17]

Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.

Yeah I’m pretty bummed out about it. Maybe the mesoscale models will come in colder. They usually do. So maybe there’s still a little hope.

[bbowman7]

Good morning! It sure is fun to wake up and come straight to the website to see what everyone is saying about the upcoming week.

Can someone tell me what the latest is for Tyler/Longview area? Ralph, I am waiting to hear from you!

[Iceresistance]

OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected

Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?

[orangeblood]

Now it’s just a matter of when the freezing transition will occur, that will gauge degree of impact.

Note: Euro can’t handle these air masses so probably wise to ignore its temp output

[Brent]

OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected

Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?

The Euro did show that(of course the Euro has been struggling) but the GEFS mean has continued to increase and the foot has actually nudged into the far corner of OK it's getting closer to me this is insane

[HockeyTx82]

Nuisance impacts must be like when melting snow falls on you from a tree or you step in a slushy puddle... 18% chance of this happening

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1487775604204204033

Haha, that first reply. Guess we can guage our winter storm severity if Ted Cruz books a flight to Cancun.

I'm sorry mods, just found humor in that since we use Wxman57 booking flights on the board. He was the original so we have that going for us.

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS does not paint a pretty picture for the DFW area. To me, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation there will be rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. By sunrise Thursday, the sleet will likely change to snow on the "back side". Could be an inch or two on top of a solid layer of ice. Don't plan on driving anywhere up there from Wednesday afternoon through the weekend. Consider yourself one of the fortunate few if you have power. Yeah, it's sad that SE TX will miss out on that. For fun, I plotted the 6Z GFS meteograms for DFW and Houston. Looks like the GFS has us below freezing for 18 hours from around 5pm Thursday to noon Friday. Look at DFW, though. All that ice on the ground will keep you in the deep freeze while Houston is up into the 50s by Sunday.

Have fun up there. If you don't have all the groceries and gas (for generators) and pipe insulation that you need now, then it'll be too late very soon.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZJan30.JPG

[wxman57]

Lots of pretty colors over the D-FW area on the freezing rain graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/06ZGFSZRa.JPG

[Iceresistance]

OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected

Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?

The Euro did show that(of course the Euro has been struggling) but the GEFS mean has continued to increase and the foot has actually nudged into the far corner of OK it's getting closer to me this is insane

https://i.ibb.co/MCBdFdz/snod-conus-5.png

Yeah, 6z GEFS has a Mean 10:1 Ratio Snowfall of 4-7 inches for Tulsa

0z Canadian has over a foot of snow, mostly along I-44.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WOWf3499310d3e61bbb.png

[gboudx]

DFW NWS is sounding like wxman57 with the perceived ice threat. There’s much more to their discussion but didn’t want to post all of it. Most anyone who posts here knows how to find it. Time to start prepping. I hope ERCOT has their stuff in order.

Precip-Type Forecast:
Precip will begin as rain with both the temperatures aloft and on
the surface above freezing. As the cold air near/just above the
surface continues to funnel south, the warm nose (portion of
atmosphere above freezing) overhead is forecast to be around 3-5
kft thick with peak temperatures around 40-45 degrees, meaning the
precip will melt and become all liquid as it falls. Once the
surface temperatures fall below freezing, the liquid precip will
freeze on contact. Wind speeds around 20-25 mph will efficiently
expel heat from surfaces and allow ice to accumulate shortly after
the air temperature drops below freezing. As temperatures continue
to fall, the p-type will likely changeover to sleet as the liquid
water freezes before reaching the surface. This event is starting
to have the makings of accumulating sleet on top of a light
glazing of ice. As the cold air continues to move south, the warm
nose will erode and change the precip over to snow. For now, this
full changeover to snow is most likely over Western North Texas
early Thursday morning. The upper trough will then swing over the
region Thursday and bring a chance of snow to all of North Texas.
All precip should end Thursday evening. It`s still too far out to
provide a reliable ice, sleet, or snow accumulation forecast, but
we will likely start to provide one tomorrow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Good morning! It sure is fun to wake up and come straight to the website to see what everyone is saying about the upcoming week.

Can someone tell me what the latest is for Tyler/Longview area? Ralph, I am waiting to hear from you!

My thoughts have not changed. Models verbatim aren't too bad here as they hold the freeze line back until early Thursday. That would still give us upwards of a quarter inch of freezing rain. Followed by light snow later in the day. If the freeze line ends up here before midnight Wed evening then impacts are much greater potentially. With over half an inch of ice before changing to sleet and snow on Thu.

[Iceresistance]

Ryan Maue on ICON model
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1487637287487819778




Joe Bastardi is concerned for an Ice Storm for Texas
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1487780609103699972

[wxman57]

Note that the GFS is by far the coldest of the models, with the highest freezing rain/sleet totals. Those two are connected. Euro doesn't even have Houston getting below freezing. Only mid 20s Thu-Fri in DFW on the 00Z Euro. ICON is warmer than the GFS, too. Arctic air won't even be coming down the Northern Plains until Tuesday. We'll have a better idea what will happen once we can "see" what we're dealing with.