Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Most models now eject this out from the Big Bend region of TX after dropping it down thru the Big Basin. This system at the upper levels is nearly ideal for a big NTX snow event if we can find some surface cold. Time to trend colder inside 120hrs.

[rwfromkansas]

That's the bane of our existence down here. It's either too cold or too warm or too dry.

Lol.

I had some mood flakes in December, so I want something that will stick this time. Won't complain about anything though at this point.

[orangeblood]

Nice trend south/closing off energy on 12Z GFS but temps are really warm. Melt on contact setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1674129600/1674572400-0mRrb4GheR0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1674129600/1674572400-HaimCo0lAc8.png

Temps will most likely be a few degrees colder than that.

Even then, forecasting mid 60s on Monday before system arrives...surface too warm, just not a good setup for accumulating snow IMHO

Cold bias CMC is warmest of the bunch...mid 40s as back side precip kick in

[Iceresistance]

It seems like the models are very clueless right now.

[bubba hotep]

Nice trend south/closing off energy on 12Z GFS but temps are really warm. Melt on contact setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1674129600/1674572400-0mRrb4GheR0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1674129600/1674572400-HaimCo0lAc8.png

Temps will most likely be a few degrees colder than that.

Even then, forecasting mid 60s on Monday before system arrives...surface too warm, just not a good setup for accumulating snow IMHO

Cold bias CMC is warmest of the bunch...mid 40s as back side precip kick in
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023011912/gem_T2m_scus_23.png

There is adequate cold air, but the H5 track isn't ideal. If the track shifts southward, then there will be cold air. This isn't a setup with the model showing snow and 32F at point A and point B to the N or NW at 45F.

[orangeblood]

Temps will most likely be a few degrees colder than that.

Even then, forecasting mid 60s on Monday before system arrives...surface too warm, just not a good setup for accumulating snow IMHO

Cold bias CMC is warmest of the bunch...mid 40s as back side precip kick in
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023011912/gem_T2m_scus_23.png

There is adequate cold air, but the H5 track isn't ideal. If the track shifts southward, then there will be cold air. This isn't a setup with the model showing snow and 32F at point A and point B to the N or NW at 45F.

I just don't see it particularly with a pressure depiction like this...Upper level cold will only get you so far, you normally need some sort of cold air advection in the lower levels this far south to sustain any accumulations. Not even accounting for the mid 60's less than 24 hrs before. I can't find any historical analogs with this depiction at the surface across the central plains, need a stronger HP/ surface cold to tap into!

[Cpv17]

Even then, forecasting mid 60s on Monday before system arrives...surface too warm, just not a good setup for accumulating snow IMHO

Cold bias CMC is warmest of the bunch...mid 40s as back side precip kick in
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023011912/gem_T2m_scus_23.png

There is adequate cold air, but the H5 track isn't ideal. If the track shifts southward, then there will be cold air. This isn't a setup with the model showing snow and 32F at point A and point B to the N or NW at 45F.

I just don't see it particularly with a pressure depiction like this...Upper level cold will only get you so far, you normally need some sort of cold air advection in the lower levels this far south to sustain any accumulations. Not even accounting for the mid 60's less than 24 hrs before. I can't find any historical analogs with this depiction at the surface across the central plains, need a stronger HP/ surface cold to tap into!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/mslp_anom/1674129600/1674561600-0eVBg18fVp0.png

Wish that low was down around Laredo and not Waco. Almost everything is just too damn far north of us for Texas to cash in.

[orangeblood]

Much better pressure map look from Euro with banana HP draped across central US....I like it!! Not nearly as warm Monday either

[Cerlin]

Models tend to struggle with these shallower airmasses and tend to be 3-5 degrees too warm usually. That should help with some of the borderline areas, especially given how fronts have been 2-3 hours ahead even high res models so far this winter.

[Ntxw]

Models tend to struggle with these shallower airmasses and tend to be 3-5 degrees too warm usually. That should help with some of the borderline areas, especially given how fronts have been 2-3 hours ahead even high res models so far this winter.

I don't see this as a shallow air mass. A lot of it is dynamically driven. You need a really deep ULL (the trend isn't bad here) to help, with a good semblance of HP to feed the surface, that's how you get colder than forecast, once it develops a trowel feature that's when it can beat the models. Depending on how things you go it can be a really big snow event or slop and cold rain. Elevation helps. Hopefully by the weekend the models will continue to dive it further south and deeper.

[Ntxw]

Much better pressure map look from Euro with banana HP draped across central US....I like it!! Not nearly as warm Monday either

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/mslp_anom/1674129600/1674583200-bYVe8PjxMvE.png

It is going in the right direction with mslp. Still got plenty of time to keep trending.

[Cerlin]

Models tend to struggle with these shallower airmasses and tend to be 3-5 degrees too warm usually. That should help with some of the borderline areas, especially given how fronts have been 2-3 hours ahead even high res models so far this winter.

I don't see this as a shallow air mass. A lot of it is dynamically driven. You need a really deep ULL (the trend isn't bad here) to help, with a good semblance of HP to feed the surface, that's how you get colder than forecast, once it develops a trowel feature that's when it can beat the models. Depending on how things you go it can be a really big snow event or slop and cold rain. Elevation helps. Hopefully by the weekend the models will continue to dive it further south and deeper.

Yeah absolutely, great points. I had been AWOL the past few days and didn’t even check the upper level dynamics before saying something. The ULL track is going to make or break this system for a lot of people.

[wxman22]

Not sure if it’s true or not but I heard the Euro was showing all that snow in areas where temps were above freezing.

I mean it can snow with temps above freezing. Actually I kind of prefer that wet snow to the dry powder anyway I saw it many times growing up in Alabama

I dunno if next week will happen or not here but temps alone aren't going to decide if it does. I'm pretty sure this won't be our only shot anyway regardless

True but it wouldn’t accumulate like what it was showing. If that’s even true what I heard idk. I haven’t looked what the temps were.

Snow will still accumulate on grassy and metal surfaces if its falling down heavy enough.Speaking from experience as most of the accumulating snow events in SE Texas over the past 10+ years had temps hovering in the mid 30's while ongoing.

[bubba hotep]

I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.

[rwfromkansas]

Much better pressure map look from Euro with banana HP draped across central US....I like it!! Not nearly as warm Monday either

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/mslp_anom/1674129600/1674583200-bYVe8PjxMvE.png

It is going in the right direction with mslp. Still got plenty of time to keep trending.

https://i.imgur.com/dN1476W.gif

I wish we had more cold air to the north coming down. Looks like there is basically none. So it will purely depend on this being a strong enough storm.

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS. Definite shift south from its 0Z run. A few members trying to put down some flakes across C TX as well (deeper system). Best run so far.

[gpsnowman]

I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023011912/168/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I agree with that statement. Just need a southern trend with colder air then maybe we get a little accumulation.

[Ntxw]

Feels gorgeous outside and next several days really through next week! Seasonal (minus the system and cold on those days) 50s for highs and 30s for lows. Of course not the beautiful 0s but love it more than nasty 70s and 80s in January or Florida. Get plenty of that in April through October!

[Ntxw]

One might ask where is said system? Currently south of Alaska (front leading wave) that will combine with vorticity from the huge swirl near Kamchatka. Should ride over the GOA ridge through Canada and dive south.

[bubba hotep]

Positive trends on the 12z runs but this still falls in the "long shot" category for NTX with only about 30% of the super ensemble members showing winter wx at DFW. Obviously, better chances as you head north.