Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

Depending on location there is 1.25 - 1.75" of QPF after temps cross 25F across DFWv

Forget hugging the ICON, hug the GFS. All will be forgiven.

[dhweather]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

It will have to be a Karl Malden + warm nose. Hoping the cold arrives sooner than expected and it is mostly snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

All areas that get a solid base of snow/sleet will be flirting with 0 on Monday morning and possibly Tue morning. Slight warming for midweek then back in the freezer for late week and the weekend.

[orangeblood]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

Trends are getting colder at all levels, that 700-850mb warm layer is very marginal temps wise (1-2C after Friday midnight). Now thinking this is all transitioning much quicker than forecast (wouldn't be surprised if this all turned to snow Saturday morning across DFW). Even WRF now showing frz line occurring 9-10 pm Friday night. If that occurs, totals across the board need to go up!!!

[TomballEd]

February 2021 didn't bust as far as cold and rolling blackouts. It did bust, in my opinion. It looked a bit like snow in the streetlights while it fell but it was frozen mist or drizzle. It made the ground white and all, but if I'm in the dark and we're boiling water on the stove from time to time to stay warm, I want more than maybe an inch of frozen drizzle.

The ability to have frozen drizzle/mist at 14F was impressive.

Not going to bust for North Central Texas.

[wxman22]

The GFS is in. That backside snow means business.We’re looking at a historic storm this weekend.

[Ntxw]

Get this trend a little more south. We are not far off.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m mostly being facetious. I never thought we’d get 7” of sleet and then 6” of snow. It’s not a bust even right now. Let’s see where the front is tomorrow morning before rending our garments. Right now I’m looking at 1/2” of ice and 3-5” of sleet/snow according to FWD. I’ll take it. If I could control the weather I’d monetize it. Maybe a lightning strike or two for some public figures.

Me mocking the storm’s name says more about what I think of named winter storms than what I expect to happen.

Yeah I may toss some chairs in my classroom tomorrow before kids arrive, but I'm cool right now. I would like an earlier transition to sleet, but it still looks pretty early to me.

The only worry I would have is if it trends even warmer.

I would take the current FWD forecast of 2-4 inches of sleet (maybe a tiny bit of snow at the end) and call it a win.

Beats the heck out of the 1 inch of sleeet last year. That did suck. I have had so many events with just a tiny bit of sleet and that's it. So, 2-4 inches of white stuff even if sleet is better than that.

[orangeblood]

The GFS is in. That backside snow means business.We’re looking at a historic storm this weekend.

https://i.ibb.co/hRM8Bb6d/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh30-84.gif

It really is...textbook 500 mb map below. You couldn't draw it up much better for cold and moisture across the southern plains. Enjoy it, extremely rare setup!

[Jag95]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

I was thinking the same thing earlier. That would be a crazy feeling.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

How often do we see such a prevalent warm nose despite such low temperatures at the lower levels?

I've never seen it happen, at least not here. Most events are in the mid to upper 20s but even then things starts shifting to snow ~25F or less.

[rwfromkansas]

Well hang in there. Sorry for your downturn.

They're also behind on the models that gave up the warming trend

This is why I don't really watch TV haha

I mean I do think around 40 there is some risk of sleet cutting into totals but I mean there's gonna be a lot of snow with this storm in Oklahoma. I actually think at least in Tulsa there's basically a guaranteed amount with these models

Growing up in Kansas virtually all the mets were actually degreed people who didn't just rely on models. I still have some signed autograph pictures from the state fair from my childhood lol. I learned a lot from them during wall-to-wall severe weather coverage. We have a few down here like that, but a lot more who just rip-and-read. It's frustrating.

[TropicalTundra]

As much as I don't want to model hug, this would be incredible.

[Iceresistance]

As much as I don't want to model hug, this would be incredible.

https://i.ibb.co/F4TYxkXz/Screenshot-2026-01-22-101400.png

Note this is snow and sleet totals here

[Brent]

The GFS is in. That backside snow means business.We’re looking at a historic storm this weekend.

https://i.ibb.co/hRM8Bb6d/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh30-84.gif

20 inches in Oklahoma on the GFS kuchera pivotal map this is ridiculous so close in time

[Ralph's Weather]

As much as I don't want to model hug, this would be incredible.

https://i.ibb.co/F4TYxkXz/Screenshot-2026-01-22-101400.png

Even considering a good chunk of that along I-20 will be sleet that is still super high end potential. I can def see potential for 6"+ of mixed precip accumulations across the I-20 corridor.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So what's the general consensus at this point for Central Texas/Austin? From what I can gather we will have a rain turned to freezing rain turned to sleet turned to maybe some stray flurries on the back end as the system ejects?

What are the key factors as far as timing/p-type goes? My amateur experience is that we're often faster and colder with these shallower airmasses than is modeled. If I'm understanding correctly that would likely lead to more sleet if we could get the colder temps quicker?

What sorts of trends should we be watching for if we want to get away from the freezing rain train? Any hope for a more robust transition to snow down here? Almost all the discussion here centers on NTX but that 200 miles makes a huge difference!

[Ntxw]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

[Portastorm]

So what's the general consensus at this point for Central Texas/Austin? From what I can gather we will have a rain turned to freezing rain turned to sleet turned to maybe some stray flurries on the back end as the system ejects?

What are the key factors as far as timing/p-type goes? My amateur experience is that we're often faster and colder with these shallower airmasses than is modeled. If I'm understanding correctly that would likely lead to more sleet if we could get the colder temps quicker?

What sorts of trends should we be watching for if we want to get away from the freezing rain train? Any hope for a more robust transition to snow down here? Almost all the discussion here centers on NTX but that 200 miles makes a huge difference!

My take FWIW and succinctly ... onset of freezing temperatures now look to be Saturday evening and not Saturday morning as previously thought. Mostly a cold rain Saturday during the day turning to freezing rain mixed with sleet overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Trend is warmer and thus the amount of icing is less, compared to previous forecasts. For us it's all going to come down to surface temps and if the models have them right or not. The precip is going to happen and it will be a healthy amount (1-2" of qpf). What kind of precip remains the big question.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.