Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311605Z - 311700Z

CU FIELD IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND
WRN VA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DEEPENS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SOUTH OF TORNADO
WATCH 402 AND IT APPEARS THIS TREND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE EWD
ADVANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
SRN WV/WRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL GENERATION/MAINTENANCE WITHIN INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT AIRMASS. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

38048035 38427578 37227572 37018058

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 311625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN WV/SRN PA
INTO NJ/VA/DE/MD...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN OK/SRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS/TN VALLEY
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGIONS TODAY.
EARLY DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAS HINDERED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF NY AND WRN/CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING...BUT MODERATE
MLCAPE AXIS IS ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED NNEWD OUT OF CENTRAL VA
AT 16Z. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING/EXPANDING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST/REST OF VA AS HEATING AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OCCURS. STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING WHEN MOST STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE. SHEAR PROFILES
AND LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION INTO LINES AND SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING A MYRIAD OF
SEVERE THREATS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.

...NORTHEAST...
SEVERE THREAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD
INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/STABILIZATION IN
PLACE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP ASCENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS AND EVEN A FEW
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE
STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND. THEREFORE...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVER WRN NY AT 16Z AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING FOR THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OVER VA/MID ATLANTIC.

...SRN KS/NRN OK TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH INTO TN/KY...
COMPLEX MCS...COMPOSED OF SEVERAL STRONG CLUSTERS/LINES...OVER NERN
OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO HAS BEEN AIDED BY LLJ THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...LLJ WILL DIMINISH AND RE-FOCUS INTO WRN OK/SWRN
KS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL AGAIN INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT INTO SRN
KS. ALTHOUGH ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LOSE LLJ FOCUS...ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME FED BY A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD TEND TO SUSTAIN INTENSE CORES/MCS ESEWD
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE
INTO A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS NRN AR/FAR SRN MO GIVEN MODERATE
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS. HOWEVER...LACK OF WELL
DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TENDS TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
BECOME SEVERE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OVER PORTIONS OF TN/KY WHERE
35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

FARTHER WEST...CAP WILL WEAKEN ALONG SURFACE LOW/FRONT NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER AND ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY OVER THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD/INTENSE
AND EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER SEVERE MCS LATER TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL MN INTO SRN WI TODAY
WITH WARM...RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS WEST. GIVEN VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD INTO NRN MN...LOW-TOPPED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
RETARDED BY SURFACE LOW/FRONT LINGERING OVER NWRN OK/SRN KS.
STILL...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AND SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN/NEAR LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR LP-SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL/ISOLATED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 05/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1635Z (12:35PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[tomboudreau]

Skies are clearing out rapidly around Pittsburgh this morning after the line of storms went through. Nothing severe this morning. Humidity is really up there also. Just feels like on of those days that you need to keep your eye to the sky. Knowing there is a tornado watch to my south, and already been in one watch today...this afternoon, sure has the feel and make up of being interesting. Just have that gut feeling right now and I'm not particuallarly liking it either. Probably going to get the dogs walk out of the way in the next hour or so.

[tidesong]

Awww, my first MDT away from home, how nice.

Heard a bit of thunder a little bit ago, but the line that was on radar broke up before it came through.

An interesting question: I am a trained storm spotted through Milwaukee/Sullivan. Does that mean spotter activation here activates me?

[tomboudreau]

I have reported severe weather to Boston and to Morehead City, NC when on vacation and they have taken my reports without any trouble. I just tell them that I am a spotter with Pittsburgh and I give them my Pittsburgh spotter number.

[tidesong]

I have reported severe weather to Boston and to Morehead City, NC when on vacation and they have taken my reports without any trouble. I just tell them that I am a spotter with Pittsburgh and I give them my Pittsburgh spotter number.

Huh, interesting, thanks. MKX doesn't give us spotted numbers, which I thought was really weird. *shrugs*

[brunota2003]

I have reported severe weather to Boston and to Morehead City, NC when on vacation and they have taken my reports without any trouble. I just tell them that I am a spotter with Pittsburgh and I give them my Pittsburgh spotter number.

Huh, interesting, thanks. MKX doesn't give us spotted numbers, which I thought was really weird. *shrugs*

Yeah, you just got to let them know you are not one with them.

[tidesong]

Yeah, you just got to let them know you are not one with them.

Thanks for the info, Brunota.

[tidesong]

DC's getting slammed right now. The cells just kind of came out of nowhere.

It's thundering here in Baltimore, but we're not getting anything severe yet. There is a lot starting to pop up to the west.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311855Z - 312000Z

BRIEF ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS NY AS WV
IMAGERY NOW CLEARLY DEPICTS FOCUSED ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO/LE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY. AIRMASS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS NY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500
J/KG...THOUGH LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORT
ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN TRENDS IN RADAR. IT/S
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE ON
CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE...THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DOES
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EMERGE ON ERN SHORE WITH SOME DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MUCH OF NY FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..DARROW.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43007977 43647407 42027450 41627867

[CrazyC83]

DEC001-005-MDC011-029-035-041-311915-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0032.080531T1828Z-080531T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...
TALBOT COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
SOUTHERN QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GRIFFIN...OR ABOUT 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER...AND MOVING EAST AT
34 MPH. ALSO, ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING ACROSS CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND WAS HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND WILL
ALSO CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DENTON AND HARMONY BY 235 PM...
SMITHVILLE AND AGNER BY 245 PM...
SMITHVILLE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF ANDREWSVILLE BY 250 PM...
BRIDGEVILLE BY 300 PM...
GEORGETOWN BY 315 PM...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 3848 7571 3864 7572 3869 7582 3867 7595
3857 7602 3873 7625 3866 7635 3877 7640
3887 7625 3882 7621 3883 7620 3895 7624
3884 7638 3902 7633 3898 7621 3902 7623
3901 7532 3882 7519 3879 7507 3846 7503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 291DEG 29KT 3885 7591

$$

RNS

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MARYLAND
VIRGINIA
PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF STAUNTON
VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...

DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION THIS EVENING AS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO FAR NRN VA/NERN
MD/DE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO LINES/SUPERCELLS WITH
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...EVANS

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311907Z - 312000Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH 20Z. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SURFACE MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM HCO SEWD TO MKT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG SURFACE HEATING
HAS OCCURRED THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING TO MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MLCAPES 500-1250 J/KG/. DESPITE WLY
TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE STORM
ORGANIZATION. SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. AS THE STORMS
INTENSIFY...IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..SMITH.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

43839410 45009507 46439638 48009733 48729721 48969655
48749509 47419427 45959349 44849287 44369270 43909266
43569329

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 311959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF VA...MD AND SRN
NJ...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND ERN SEABOARD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...MID-ATLANTIC...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A
DRYSLOT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS NRN VA...MD AND DE WITH RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM ERN VA
SSWWD INTO ERN NC. INCREASING INSTABILITY...ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 40 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD ILL-DEFINED 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
REGION AND FLOW HAS INCREASED IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS OVER
THE LAST 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A
FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD INTO THE CAROLINAS ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS DUE TO DRYER MID-LEVEL AIR AND WEAKER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PA...NJ AND NY...INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH
RUC DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG
RANGE. EVEN SO...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AREA IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A BROAD 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SEVERE MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE ACTIVITY.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK REGION/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN THE WRN OZARKS AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SUSTAINED BY
A CENTER OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500
J/KG/ OVER NE AR INDICATED BY RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. A BROAD 45 TO
55 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
CLUSTER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE EWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN TN
AND WRN KY. DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY
AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NRN OK AND SRN KS. STRONG INSTABILITY
ALREADY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MAINLY
ACROSS OK. THIS SHOULD FUEL AN MCS WHICH SHOULD TRACK ESEWD ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA SHOW A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING BELOW 700 MB AND 50 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL DUE TO A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WEST TX
INTO NCNTRL OK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE GREATEST EWD ACROSS
THE OZARKS AS AN MCS BECOMES ORGANIZED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN CO...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES THE
REGION. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND SFC
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING SEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN MN
INTO ERN IA AND SWRN WI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS...COLD AIR ALOFT
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2006Z (4:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 312004Z - 312100Z

AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY BUOYANT ACROSS SRN VA INTO NC WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AS STRONGER FLOW
SPREADS ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATES ONE INTENSIFYING
SUPERCELL OVER SRN ROCKINGHAM/NRN GULFORD COUNTY IN NC. THIS STORM
SHOULD TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NRN NC WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY YET
DEVELOP OVER SRN VA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY
NOT BE THAT GREAT...BUT EXPECTED INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY CERTAINLY
WARRANTS A NEW TORNADO WATCH.

..DARROW.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

36467977 37197758 36867619 36057608 35867945

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VAC033-312045-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-080531T2045Z/
CAROLINE VA-
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
CAROLINE COUNTY...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VILLBORO...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN...MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT A.P. HILL BY 420 PM EDT...
PORT ROYAL BY 425 PM EDT...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3816 7713 3807 7717 3811 7749 3824 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 282DEG 28KT 3813 7734

$$

WAMSLEY

[Melissa]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
525 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE THE WEATHER MAY QUIET DOWN SOME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. STORM SPOTTERS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

[CrazyC83]

So far, no tornadoes today.

[wbug1]

Some scattered but severe cells in NY, Kansas, and more concentrated in VA.

1855 UNK CHESAPEAKE BEACH CALVERT MD 3869 7654 78 KNOT WIND GUST RECORDED (LWX)

[KWT]

000
WFUS51 KAKQ 312048
TORAKQ
VAC033-057-085-097-101-312130-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0046.080531T2048Z-080531T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WEST CENTRAL KING AND QUEEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CAROLINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MANGOHICK...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 39
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEULAHVILLE AND 9 MILES NORTH OF MANQUIN BY 455 PM EDT...
AYLETT BY 500 PM EDT...
SAINT STEPHENS CHURCH BY 505 PM EDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WAKEFIELD AT...1...800...7 3 7...8 6 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3786 7692 3765 7705 3775 7740 3794 7727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 271DEG 34KT 3784 7725

$$

SMF