2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[cycloneye]

If this 500mb pattern persists thru the months of August and September,then the CV systems will not have an escape to the fishes.

[beoumont]

If this 500mb pattern persists thru the months of August and September,then the CV systems will not have an escape to the fishes.

Almost every mid-late July a 500 mb ridge shows up for awhile, running from Africa all the way to Tennessee. Yearly food for the optimist.

Eventually this very zonal flow breaks down, and becomes more meridional; and that's when the hurricane train begins.

[gatorcane]

Almost every mid-late July a 500 mb ridge shows up for awhile, running from Africa all the way to Tennessee. Yearly food for the optimist.

Eventually this very zonal flow breaks down, and becomes more meridional; and that's when the hurricane train begins.

I don't recall seeing the type of Northern Atlantic ridging we have seen for many years, the last year that comes to mind would be 2004. It's always possible the long-wave pattern changes drastically come August and September featuring a much weaker Bermuda High, but so far early indications suggest the ridging might be there this year unlike previous years that would allow at least some Cape Verde systems to get trapped and not go to fishland.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree. We have been parked under a very early season heat ridge for the past 5-6 weeks. Highs in the low to mid 90's, Not much rain, and grass and lawns are already starting to suffer. Pattern seems locked in for now and in the for seeable future with a break or two in between. All we can hope is the season doesn't ramp up anytime soon.

[Ntxw]

I don't recall seeing the type of Northern Atlantic ridging we have seen for many years, the last year that comes to mind would be 2004. It's always possible the long-wave pattern changes drastically come August and September featuring a much weaker Bermuda High, but so far early indications suggest the ridging might be there this year unlike previous years that would allow at least some Cape Verde systems to get trapped and not go to fishland.

Does the +NAO trend since April have anything to do with it? Compared to the past several season which featured overall -NAO for June and July



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... scii.table

[beoumont]

Gatorcane noted:
I don't recall seeing the type of Northern Atlantic ridging we have seen for many years, the last year that comes to mind would be 2004. It's always possible the long-wave pattern changes drastically come August and September featuring a much weaker Bermuda High, but so far early indications suggest the ridging might be there this year unlike previous years that would allow at least some Cape Verde systems to get trapped and not go to fishland.

Below is 500 mb. analysis last year on July 20, 2012

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

[beoumont]

My previous posted 500 mb analysis was July 20, 2012, last year. The following is july 20, 2010:

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

[gatorcane]

Latest image of wave coming off Africa. This is the farthest north one I have seen and seems high in latitude considering it is only June. Undoubtedly it will poof once it hits the water or near the coast.

[cycloneye]

Another view of what is going on inside Africa and it shows first AEW that for sure will serve as a cleaner of the sal for the ones behind.

[KBBOCA]

Cycloneye, can you tell me where that image came from? And is it water vapor, or what? I'd like to be able to bookmark the site where you found that, thanks. (I'm currently on assignment in West Africa (Mauritania), so am keeping an active eye on the wave train to see what our weather might be like in the coming days!)

Another view of what is going on inside Africa and it shows first AEW that for sure will serve as a cleaner of the sal for the ones behind.

[SFLcane]

My previous posted 500 mb analysis was July 20, 2012, last year. The following is july 20, 2010:

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

Positive thinking rich..

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Cycloneye, can you tell me where that image came from? And is it water vapor, or what? I'd like to be able to bookmark the site where you found that, thanks. (I'm currently on assignment in West Africa (Mauritania), so am keeping an active eye on the wave train to see what our weather might be like in the coming days!)

Another view of what is going on inside Africa and it shows first AEW that for sure will serve as a cleaner of the sal for the ones behind.

Here is the link to Eumetsat. If you want the one I posted go to where it says dust.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages.html

[TheStormExpert]

My previous posted 500 mb analysis was July 20, 2012, last year. The following is july 20, 2010:

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

Where do you get these 500mb analysis graphics from, could I have the link?

[beoumont]

Where do you get these 500mb analysis graphics from, could I have the link?

This is link to N. Hemisphere archives of 00z & 12z charts, 500 mb, June 2000 - present day

http://archive.atmos.colostate.edu/data/misc/QTUA11/

and here is the link to all levels, various tropical areas, US, global and northern hemisphere: analysis back to the year 2000.

http://archive.atmos.colostate.edu/

[cycloneye]

In the past few days,the ITCZ has not had a presence in the Central Atlantic as a high pressure ridges SW to well below 10N. This will not allow any waves to try to develop anytime soon until this pattern changes.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a great shot as to what's happening.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif


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[SFLcane]

Luis a strong and southerly jet stream is mainly responsible for the dry stable conditions across the MDR. This jet is causing stronger than usual easterly trades to blow across the region there by creating dry sinking air across the area. Nothing out of the norm if you ask me things should pick up mid month.

edit: Image above illustrates that

[chaser1]

Luis a strong and southerly jet stream is mainly responsible for the dry stable conditions across the MDR. This jet is causing stronger than usual easterly trades to blow across the region there by creating dry sinking air across the area. Nothing out of the norm if you ask me things should pick up mid month

I'd agree; not uncommon to have a big surge in higher pressures in July, as we see the African & Central Atlantic high pressure ridges assert themselves and build west & south. Oddly, this present set up (as indicated by the animated graphic above), is restricted to the mid/lower levels and still not representive of the upper levels. Seems the UL conditions are lagging, but the long range GFS does finally indicate upper level ridging in the tropical Atlantic around mid month. At least then, upper level conditions for the Central & Eastern Atlantic should be closer to climatological norms.

[blp]

MJO is looking to make an exit from our region in a few days according to the Euro.

[gatorcane]

Looking at this WV shot this morning we see this massive ULL and weakness over The Tennessee value area, quite unusual for this time of year. Could this be an early indicator that there may not be the infamous Texas "death ridge" in place this season that it has seen the past couple of seasons? If so this could mean we see a system(s) impact the Western and Northern Gulf areas this year.