2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS not buying into this (too much shear). CMC isn't either.

[hurricanes1234]

5:00 PM TWO this afternoon shows a lot of moisture in EPAC.



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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe the Pacific basins have to wait for the MJO to arrive for development. No consistency now with the models.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

?

The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF are all developing a tropical cyclone in 5-6 days.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: ?

The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF are all developing a tropical cyclone in 5-6 days.

12z GFS did not, but 18z GFS does. CMC shows didly squat (I swear they showed more in April than June) though. Not sure if I buy it or not; it looks high in latitude for June. Super long range CFS shows stuff in late June/early July.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I can't believe the NHC hasn't highlighted this area yet. This is the disturbance the models are developing.

[supercane4867]

Stronger

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Invest 94E is up

[hurricanes1234]

Very impressive activity, I must say!

[Yellow Evan]

Big MJO pulse within a month away

[cycloneye]

Interesting that 94E is poised to develop without a MJO signal. This tells you that EPAC will have a very active season in 2014 thanks to the help of a developing El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Interesting that 94E is poised to develop without a MJO signal. This tells you that EPAC will have a very active season in 2014 thanks to the help of a developing El Nino.

It's not just the El Nino, +PDO is probably boosting it as well coupled with -AMO readings/configuration. I've been following the IR velocities and for several months now (even during dry phases of MJO) rising air has been prevalent over the EPAC while sinking air has been over parts of the WPAC and Atlantic. CPAC and EPAC often benefits. Both ocean and atmosphere are favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting that 94E is poised to develop without a MJO signal. This tells you that EPAC will have a very active season in 2014 thanks to the help of a developing El Nino.

For sure, especially given it's only June, and we're still weeks away from its secondary peak in mid-July, though statistically El Ninos aren't much more active than Neutrals in terms of TS and hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

We are getting a new TC in the basin. Let's see how much ACE units it gets. Go here.

[floridasun78]

we see epac more busy because El Nino

[Yellow Evan]

we see epac more busy because El Nino

Don't forget about the +PDO.

[hurricanes1234]

The formation of Cristina last night marked the third named storm to form since the season began, and it was prior to June 10. That must be a record or at least very rare in EPAC to have three named storms already developed in early June.

[cycloneye]

The ACE update for EPAC as of the 09z advisory of TS Cristina is 19.36 units.

[Yellow Evan]

The formation of Cristina last night marked the third named storm to form since the season began, and it was prior to June 10. That must be a record or at least very rare in EPAC to have three named storms already developed in early June.

It is tied for the 2nd fastest C storm on record, only behind 1992 and tied with 1985. Ahead of seasons like 1982, 1983, and 1984.