ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This is not the right kind of trend in steering you want to see if you expecting a turn to the wnw/nw.. lol

[abajan]

just and FYI.. this is when it is supposed to turn more WNW .. around 295 to 300.

if it takes longer the cone will shift west.. northern islands are still in play.

WNW is actually 285 to 300, which can be checked here. And it's already heading WNW, according to the latest advisory.

EDIT: As Aric rightly pointed out, he said "more" WNW.

[wxman57]

It's still being hit by shear. The LLC is just outside the convection to the SE. Crosshairs are at 13.6N/47.9W. NHC's position 3 hours ago was 12.9N/47.9W. It hasn't moved due north. Center was hard to locate using IR imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

just and FYI.. this is when it is supposed to turn more WNW .. around 295 to 300.

if it takes longer the cone will shift west.. northern islands are still in play.

WNW is actually 285 to 300, which can be checked here. And it's already heading WNW, according to the latest advisory.

I said it needs to turn "MORE" towards the wnw .. meaning the upper end ..

[Aric Dunn]

It's still being hit by shear. The LLC is just outside the convection to the SE. Crosshairs are at 13.6N/47.9W. NHC's position 3 hours ago was 12.9N/47.9W. It hasn't moved due north. Center was hard to locate using IR imagery.

http://wxman57.com/images/Eleven2.JPG

the center 2.5 hours ago just before it was pulled completely under the CDO easily found.



1.5 hours ago. losing it under the convection.


So extrapolating to Current satellite image.. following the curved band that is developing. the center is a good deal west of your position fully under the convection.

[NDG]

Dust is and will not be a problem for future Josephine.

[AutoPenalti]

It's still being hit by shear. The LLC is just outside the convection to the SE. Crosshairs are at 13.6N/47.9W. NHC's position 3 hours ago was 12.9N/47.9W. It hasn't moved due north. Center was hard to locate using IR imagery.

http://wxman57.com/images/Eleven2.JPG

Definitely a lot more organized this morning, as GCANE mentioned, all it takes is a bit more convection to wrap around to establish an outflow channel and an anti-cyclone, once that happens, it's off to the races.

[GCANE]

Pretty obvious from the cirrus outflow that the UL jet is gone and a convection anticyclone is in place.
There may be a bit of shear evident east of the CoC at mid levels.
Inflow is developing rapidly as seen be the convective burst to the NE.
Being under the AWB is doing wonders and should put an end to any shear shortly.

[tolakram]

If there's an LLC under there it's not very vigorous. Low level clouds on south side moving south, not east.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=16010.7001953125&y=7806.423828125

Conditions for the next week or so are not favorable so if this does become a tropical storm I think it will be over performing.

[AveryTheComrade]

more organised this morning but I find it doubtful that ASCAT will find 35kt winds this afternoon, not unless it maintains this convective burst until tonight.

[wxman57]

Center still appears to be near the SE edge of the convection.. Oh, I'm sure it'll be upgraded to Josephine today, and it'll be torn apart within 48 hrs.

[GCANE]

2nd feeder band rapidly kickin in

[Aric Dunn]

2nd feeder band rapidly kickin in

https://i.imgur.com/o4fZkR5.png

yeah it is well on its way. a little re-orginization happened as the center was pulled to the WNW under the convection.. but the multiple feederbands are a dead giveaway.

[GCANE]

Will Josephine meet the Guillotine in the Bahamatine?

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

11L ELEVEN 200813 1200 13.4N 48.6W ATL 30 1007

At 1200 UTC, 13 August 2020, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.4°N and 48.6°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 13 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[Jr0d]

Looking the best it ever has this morning, doesn't say much though. I expect an upgrade at 11am but likely wont last long.

[Chemmers]

think will be a ST in a few hours, could ever make a run at a hurricane, before the shear kicks in maybe

[Chemmers]

looking quite good on water vapour

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... p=standard

[abajan]

just and FYI.. this is when it is supposed to turn more WNW .. around 295 to 300.

if it takes longer the cone will shift west.. northern islands are still in play.

WNW is actually 285 to 300, which can be checked here. And it's already heading WNW, according to the latest advisory.

I said it needs to turn "MORE" towards the wnw .. meaning the upper end ..

Ah yes. My mistake. Alas! I've become a victim of the short-attention-span malady so common these days.

[GCANE]

Will Josephine meet the Guillotine in the Bahamatine?

https://i.imgur.com/k1XpY7F.jpg

A possible stay of execution?

48 hrs out and hitting the shear.
But wait, there's an anticyclone, and it could be all an outflow channel.
355k PV is in the clear.