NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[cycloneye]

11PM NHC track rakes the southern coast of Jamaica tracking almost due west.
Couldn't get the discussion at weather underground though?
They must have thrown the GFS idea of a drift further north closer to Haiti entirely?

From 11 PM discussion:

The GFS and the HAFS regional hurricane models show
a more initial eastward motion possibly due to center re-formation,
and due to this they forecast a track east of Jamaica, followed by
an eventual northward motion toward eastern Cuba. The ECMWF,
Canadian, UKMET, HFIP Corrected Consensus, and Google DeepMind
forecast a more westerly track that passes south of Jamaica,
followed by a northward turn near or west of the western end of the
island near the end of the forecast period. The HRWF, HMON, and the
other consensus models are in between these and forecast the center
to cross Jamaica. The new forecast continues to follow the more
westerly solution and is little changed from the previous forecast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sooner or later this storm is gonna blow its stack. That is some seriously deep convection blowing up all over it.

[Teban54]

I'm confused. The 11pm EDT advisory says the new forecast track is "little changed from the previous forecast", but it actually seems substantially closer to Jamaica than 5pm?

[LarryWx]

-Atlantic 2025 ACE finally just reached 100.

-Though Melissa has yet to produce much ACE (2.2), there’s a whole lot of potential based on the NHC forecast of a combo of very slow movement for many days and reaching cat 4 status in a few days. IF this all materializes, we’d realistically be looking at the possibility of 30+ more ACE though forecasting the ultimate intensity is at a well above average difficulty for this storm. This is still struggling with shear and thus has been holding pretty steady. On the low end, this could never get much above cat 1 and end up with <15 total ACE.

-Of course, Melissa may not be the last storm.

[Teban54]

[WaveBreaking]

Sunset a couple hours ago (another one of my "homemade" GeoColor images using the Red, Blue, and Veggie bands)

[al78]

-Atlantic 2025 ACE finally just reached 100.

-Though Melissa has yet to produce much ACE (2.2), there’s a whole lot of potential based on the NHC forecast of a combo of very slow movement for many days and reaching cat 4 status in a few days. IF this all materializes, we’d realistically be looking at the possibility of 30+ more ACE though forecasting the ultimate intensity is at a well above average difficulty for this storm. This is still struggling with shear and thus has been holding pretty steady. On the low end, this could never get much above cat 1 and end up with <15 total ACE.

-Of course, Melissa may not be the last storm.

Given the talk in prior months around the lull, high number of weak, low ACE storms and comparisons with the seasonal forecasts, it would be impressive if after all that, the season made it to the 1991-2020 climatology or even surpassed it. The seasonal forecasts from CSU and TSR were around the low 140's for ACE, so an observed ACE 20 or so below forecast would not really be a bust.

[kevin]

Recon is about to arrive at Melissa. There's been a lot of convection firing SE of the center on IR in the last few hours, let's see what's going on exactly.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981670510464254253

[GCANE]

This will devastate Jamaica

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 240600.png

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherjamaica/status/1981555267088372172

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherjamaica/status/1981682907103236346

[kevin]

Recon found the eye at 16.0N/75.0W so 0.6 degrees east of the latest forecast position. Seems like the strong convection to the east has pushed or relocated the center a bit to that side. Not sure whether this will have a significant impact on the track. All models are now trending a lot more SW (many even south of Jamaica) in the 06z cycle. But of course they don't have this slightly more eastern center.

Edit: now that I check, HAFS-A actually initializes at 75.1W and is even the most southern solution (about 2.5 degrees south of Jamaica) in the 06z cycle.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon puts it at 16N 75W about 35 nm east of forecast track


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... ELISSA.png

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

[GCANE]

Shear beginning to slowly dissipate

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... wg8sht.GIF

A big slug of high TPW air in the EPAC is trying to make its way around the Costa Rica mountains.
Should make its way through Panama in the next 24 hrs and into Melissa around Sunday.
IMHO, it is likely Melissa will strengthen then and makes it way to Jamaica.
At that point, more high TPW air will move in from the EPAC thru Honduras.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5


RI will likely occur during this time causing the eye to shrink to a pinhole.
MSLP will likely approach 900mb.
Strengthening will depend in large part on the position of the anticyclone at that time.
It is difficult to forecast, but it is likely to be very closing due to the retrograding of the trough.

About 24hrs after that, an EWRC is very likely to occur.

Looking very bad for Jamaica.
Cuba maybe spared the brunt of this due to a possible EWRC underway as Melissa approaches landfall during that time.

[GCANE]

Chances starting to look better for this to reform around 15N 74.5W sometime during the day today.
In fact recon is heading there now.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1981679671142912422

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981670510464254253

[chaser1]

Chances starting to look better for this to reform around 15N 74.5W sometime during the day today.
In fact recon is heading there now.

That's what i'm seeing too. Looks to be forming around 14.8N & 74.3 W

[chaser1]

Perhaps an initial heading of roughly 160° or SSE at about 5 mph. Maybe it'll do a counterclockwise loop today before back to a west to WSW motion tomorrow