NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

If Melissa stays weaker in the next 36 - 48 hours, it's possible that she can miss Jamaica and start to track WSW/W over the WCAR?

[Nimbus]

If Melissa stays weaker in the next 36 - 48 hours, it's possinle that she can miss Jamaica and start to track WSW/W over the WCAR?

More likely she continues to drift north a little more then gets pulled back W or WSW over Jamaica as the Gulf ridging takes over steering.

Lots of possibilities though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear beginning to lessen and an inner core is finally starting to develop. I think Melissa may make its run for hurricane status tomorrow afternoon, setting the stage for explosive RI beginning Saturday morning.

[Category5Kaiju]

Shear beginning to lessen and an inner core is finally starting to develop. I think Melissa may make its run for hurricane status tomorrow afternoon, setting the stage for explosive RI beginning Saturday morning.

https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES01402025297EaSV8Z.jpg

Whoa... . Melissa really is beginning to get that "look"; I think we're all expecting that this storm will become a ferocious hurricane, but I think when it happens in real-time we're still going to be amazed by it. Praying that residents in Jamaica and possibly the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Hispaniola, and Bahamas take the necessary precautions in light of this unfolding situation.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1981540523971129850


I don't think this reformation will occur, especially because recon found a very tight LLC right below the cold blob of convection (~0130z, ~16.2°N, 75.4°W). Just my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure drop might happen but not buying the reformation part..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the satellite, it almost seems to be drifting ever so slightly SSW. That might be due to the bursting, but the shear vector has definitely changed.
Edit...looking at recon, it has either reformed S or moved south

[Nimbus]

11PM NHC track rakes the southern coast of Jamaica tracking almost due west.
Couldn't get the discussion at weather underground though?
They must have thrown the GFS idea of a drift further north closer to Haiti entirely?

[cycloneye]

11PM NHC track rakes the southern coast of Jamaica tracking almost due west.
Couldn't get the discussion at weather underground though?
They must have thrown the GFS idea of a drift further north closer to Haiti entirely?

From 11 PM discussion:

The GFS and the HAFS regional hurricane models show
a more initial eastward motion possibly due to center re-formation,
and due to this they forecast a track east of Jamaica, followed by
an eventual northward motion toward eastern Cuba. The ECMWF,
Canadian, UKMET, HFIP Corrected Consensus, and Google DeepMind
forecast a more westerly track that passes south of Jamaica,
followed by a northward turn near or west of the western end of the
island near the end of the forecast period. The HRWF, HMON, and the
other consensus models are in between these and forecast the center
to cross Jamaica. The new forecast continues to follow the more
westerly solution and is little changed from the previous forecast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sooner or later this storm is gonna blow its stack. That is some seriously deep convection blowing up all over it.

[Teban54]

I'm confused. The 11pm EDT advisory says the new forecast track is "little changed from the previous forecast", but it actually seems substantially closer to Jamaica than 5pm?

[LarryWx]

-Atlantic 2025 ACE finally just reached 100.

-Though Melissa has yet to produce much ACE (2.2), there’s a whole lot of potential based on the NHC forecast of a combo of very slow movement for many days and reaching cat 4 status in a few days. IF this all materializes, we’d realistically be looking at the possibility of 30+ more ACE though forecasting the ultimate intensity is at a well above average difficulty for this storm. This is still struggling with shear and thus has been holding pretty steady. On the low end, this could never get much above cat 1 and end up with <15 total ACE.

-Of course, Melissa may not be the last storm.

[Teban54]

[WaveBreaking]

Sunset a couple hours ago (another one of my "homemade" GeoColor images using the Red, Blue, and Veggie bands)

[al78]

-Atlantic 2025 ACE finally just reached 100.

-Though Melissa has yet to produce much ACE (2.2), there’s a whole lot of potential based on the NHC forecast of a combo of very slow movement for many days and reaching cat 4 status in a few days. IF this all materializes, we’d realistically be looking at the possibility of 30+ more ACE though forecasting the ultimate intensity is at a well above average difficulty for this storm. This is still struggling with shear and thus has been holding pretty steady. On the low end, this could never get much above cat 1 and end up with <15 total ACE.

-Of course, Melissa may not be the last storm.

Given the talk in prior months around the lull, high number of weak, low ACE storms and comparisons with the seasonal forecasts, it would be impressive if after all that, the season made it to the 1991-2020 climatology or even surpassed it. The seasonal forecasts from CSU and TSR were around the low 140's for ACE, so an observed ACE 20 or so below forecast would not really be a bust.

[kevin]

Recon is about to arrive at Melissa. There's been a lot of convection firing SE of the center on IR in the last few hours, let's see what's going on exactly.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981670510464254253

[GCANE]

This will devastate Jamaica

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 240600.png

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherjamaica/status/1981555267088372172

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherjamaica/status/1981682907103236346