NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Kazmit]

If this goes south of Jamaica like the Euro is showing, it will be a win for both Jamaica and the cat 5 enthusiasts.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981662242358563258

[aspen]

06z HAFS-B still finds a way to wallop Jamaica with a Cat 5, despite its SW track shift. It starts recurving much sooner than the HAFS-A.

Since the HAFS-B completely loses the center of Melissa for the early part of its run, it’s impossible to tell if it correctly initialized around the new center location of 16.0N/75.1W like the HAFS-A.

[Nimbus]

Recon finding a weak center north of 16N, while most of the 00z models initialized about a half degree further south.
That is at zero hours and some models like the UKMET require a significant track slide SW to verify.
Pretty bad when AI can`t even forecast 6 hours out.

[syfr]

https://i.imgur.com/2DzMl7G.png
There is still a huge split

Forecast is, it's south of Cuba, then it goes somewhere....

[Blown Away]

Some big W shifts with the 06z HMON and HWRF.

[tolakram]

We are closing in on when we see what model biases win. The GFS reformation from shear northerly solution vs a more consistent LLC that continues to move west. Levi did a good explanation of the GFS bias to always move the LLC toward a vigorous MLC. It's been years and I forget the storm but I still remember when the Euro had a hurricane into Texas while the GFS had a storm crossing Florida. GFS 'won' due to the reformation bias.

I use the terms win and lose loosely as a model bias will win when it wins, but it's not really a win IMO.

[chaser1]

I have consistently given the CMC minimal "tropical cred" however it again has shifted back to its westerly outlier forecast track. I do believe that it my be overplaying the strength of the soon to shift east Gulf ridge but I do think that a more reliable potential track might well be a blend of the EURO and CMC. That would be even better yet for Jamaica AND Cat 5 enthusiasts!

[kevin]

12z guidance shifts west again, but most of them still show a Jamaica landfall around +96hr.

[kevin]

06z Euro goes south of Jamaica, but then still hits it as it travels north at the end of the run, +117hr & 935mb.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981708937285251338

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[caneman]

Surprised nobody is talking about the UKMET run. Am I correct in thinking it was the most accurate last year?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1981726019712115016

[caneseddy]

Canadian finally coming on board with the majority of the models showing the NE turn after Jamaica and over eastern Cuba.

[ronjon]

I have consistently given the CMC minimal "tropical cred" however it again has shifted back to its westerly outlier forecast track. I do believe that it my be overplaying the strength of the soon to shift east Gulf ridge but I do think that a more reliable potential track might well be a blend of the EURO and CMC. That would be even better yet for Jamaica AND Cat 5 enthusiasts!

Except maybe the Cayman Islands and central Cuba.

[aspen]

HAFS-A/B seem to initialize fairly well and both show Melissa going south of Jamaica through 60-72 hours.

HWRF is too far west and gets much closer to Jamaica’s southern coast by 39hrs out.

[aspen]

Interestingly, all hurricane models show an EWRC starting sometime on Monday. Both HAFS models have Melissa bottom out in the 910s as this occurs on Monday afternoon into evening, as it stalls south of the western tip of Jamaica.

I do not like where these runs are headed. Probably an intensifying system was an expanded wind field making a beeline for Jamaica.

[LarryWx]

Canadian finally coming on board with the majority of the models showing the NE turn after Jamaica and over eastern Cuba.

Meanwhile, the UKMET continues to correct with a more E track and stronger. It now goes over C Cuba to Andros, still W of the other models. Its performance for Melissa has been terrible (F) due to all of those early runs staying weak and going into Nicaragua and the opposite of its stellar results for Imelda/Ian among others. It is such a hit or miss model!

[BobHarlem]

12z euro still bad for Jamaica