MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO/SRN IL/SW IND
   
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
VALID 192109Z - 192315Z
   
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD STORM COVERAGE PROVE
SUFFICIENT.
   
AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS EXTENDING
WNW-ESE FROM FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. AN ISOLD STORM HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED EAST OF STL AS OF 21Z. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AND
MID/UPPER 90S SFC TEMPS/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. MODEST DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS
GIVEN MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
..GUYER.. 08/19/2005
   
   
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
39509199 40279184 40349122 39508872 38808605 37918647
38118774 38508987 38849064

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sorry double post

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KS / NWRN MO / FAR SERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736...
   
   VALID 192241Z - 200045Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF
   ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF SURFACE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION.  SUPERCELL NOW MOVING
   ACROSS SERN ELLSWORTH/NERN RICE COUNTIES TOWARD SALINE/MCPHERSON
   COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE RIDING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITHIN ZONE
   OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY.  AS THIS STORM CONTINUES
   EWD...THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST.  MEANWHILE...SECOND
   SUPERCELL OVER GEARY/MORRIS COUNTIES ALSO APPEARS TO BE RIDING EWD
   ALONG BOUNDARY...AND MAY LIKEWISE POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY-UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH GREATEST
   STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS WW...A MORE LIMITED THREAT ALSO
   EXISTS EWD INTO MO  -- AND WWD INTO WRN KS WHERE AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL CONTINUES OVER GREELEY COUNTY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   39249869 39689763 40129443 38619441 37180027 37990026

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NW PA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735...
   
   VALID 192312Z - 200045Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 735 CONTINUES FOR WRN NY/NW PA UNTIL
   02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES...AS WELL AS LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   A SLIVER OF UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PRIMARILY INVOF LAKE ERIE/LAKE
   ONTARIO LAKE SHORE...WITH MODIFIED 18Z BUF RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF
   750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS FAR WRN NY/FAR NW PA. IN SPITE OF THE
   MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 735...AMBIENT
   FLOW FIELDS NEVERTHELESS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN
   200 MS/S2 -- OWING TO BACKED S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PROXIMITY
   OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   43017946 43497916 43657875 43667758 43637678 43167693
   42367747 41707812 41227858 41287936 41378037 41758040

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / NWRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735...
   
   VALID 200029Z - 200100Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS WW. WW MAY BE CANCELLED
   BY 20/01Z.
   
   STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS -- AS REVEALED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS -- REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NY/WRN PA AWAY
   FROM THE ERIE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  WITH MAIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   AXIS NOW MOVING INTO THIS MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE THREAT
   CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONGEST STORM -- NOW
   MOVING SWD INTO CLARION/JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN PA --  IS NOW S OF
   WW...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH TIME AS SELY
   LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE STORM IS ORIGINATING FROM WITHIN MORE
   STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES/ ACROSS
   CENTRAL PA.
   
   BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE TOP
   OF THE HOUR.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   43697805 43477740 41787869 41197933 41638008 42287905
   43407833

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN
   KY...EXTREME SERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201631Z - 201800Z
   
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WIND PRODUCERS AS THEY
   MOVE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT
   1-2 HOURS.
   
   PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR OVER INDIANA/OH/NRN KY SOON WILL BECOME
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT...POSSIBLY DERECHO CALIBER.  VIS
   IMAGERY SHOWS NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM
   NERN INDIANA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG HUF...MVN...CGI LINE...MOVING EWD
   APPROXIMATELY 35 KT.  SWRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER IL BECOMES
   COLOCATED WITH PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
   ACTIVITY...STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SFC PRESSURE RISES TO ITS W.
   CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SRN
   IL PORTION OF THIS BAND...AND ALSO OVER SEGMENT NNE IND.  DURING
   NEXT 2-3 HOURS...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BAND AND MOVE INTO RAPIDLY
   DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS RISING INTO LOW 90S F
   AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S.  DESPITE WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS...VERY
   HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE YIELDS DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH VERY
   WEAK CINH...MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DCAPE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG.
   GIVEN MIDLEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT -- PER WLC PROFILER -- AND AT LEAST
   40 KT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF AREA...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF
   ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EPISODE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   38028578 37878685 37798790 37898858 38168875 38668794
   39338677 39868580 40578514 41608468 41718396 41608289
   41658144 40908105 39628154 38848255 38208400 38068532

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC..ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221737Z - 221930Z
   
   A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST BRIEFLY WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
   WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SC AND
   ERN GA. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING WWD ACROSS SRN
   SC EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY
   EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH VERY
   LITTLE WIND SHEAR EXISTS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH SFC
   DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE
   VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   34478182 33798286 32628350 31168325 31128208 32288061
   33118026 34188078

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221815Z - 222015Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AS STORM
   COVERAGE INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND
   ISOLATED.
   
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF A
   STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE CO. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL CO AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN
   PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000
   J/KG AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN
   ADDITION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN CO WILL MOVE EWD
   TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO
   ABOUT 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL
   STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT
   FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITH MCS
   DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   39250489 40160363 40120268 39770219 38750186 37930237
   37480346 37650441 38230533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...NRN GA...AND NERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231814Z - 231945Z
   
   ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES AND SRN TN. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE
   RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. COVERAGE OF
   T-STORMS SHOULD PEAK WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX BEFORE GRADUALLY
   DECREASING THIS EVENING.
   
   STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE GULF COAST
   WWD INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH WLY 15-25KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
   GULF STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING E-W FROM FAR NERN MS INTO FAR NRN GA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS
   TO BE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
   18Z. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
   WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. CELLS WILL
   TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 5-10KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   33748584 33938830 34388966 34958939 35228895 35418825
   35548753 35458517 35078398 34238313 33848318 33758364

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231825Z - 232030Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND NE CO
   BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN CO IN RESPONSE TO
   AN EWD APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS
   LIFT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
   EXPAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
   ENCOUNTERING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ALONG WITH MUCAPES ABOVE
   1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM
   SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL CO. THE
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER NE CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
   COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AN  ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT
   FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GJT...
   
   40080638 40770616 40930434 40910297 40680220 39650212
   39310275 39220442 39390615

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 232051Z - 232245Z



ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM SERN CO SWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLES.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING EWD INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR AN INCREASING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AT 23/2030Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER SWD TO NEAR TCC. AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS UT...AND SEWD
EXTENTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS
FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH/SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES INTO SERN
CO...WITH WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION...NORTH OF DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT
FROM 35NE DHT TO 15NE CSM. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES A SSWLY 850MB JET
MAX OF 35-40KT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 05Z.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY...SWRN SD...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241922Z - 242115Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS FROM FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN WY EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE
   NEB PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
   DRY MICROBURSTS.
   
   SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN
   S-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST
   OF BIS TO JUST SOUTH OF RAP...AND WWD TO 30N CAP AS OF 19Z. FRONT
   SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN WEAK
   FLOW IN THE COLD SECTOR.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING WLY
   SURFACE WINDS ARE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WY.
   TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
   90S. AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. QUESTION IS WHETHER
   CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH
   OF THE FRONTAL POSITION NEAR THE TRI-BORDER AREA OF WY/NEB/SD.
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ABSENT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
   RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT. WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING...EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEPLY-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 45F
   DURING PEAK HEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
   STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER EWD
   INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   43370513 43380430 43730303 43920205 41440160 41090227
   41140459

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241931Z - 242130Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR TX
   PANHANDLE...WRN AND NCNTRL OK INTO FAR SRN KS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE CAPPING
   INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE
   SUPPORT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   NCNTRL OK ARE IN THE MID 70S F RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO
   5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO SW KS. THIS SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
   AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR A BRIEF SPINUP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   36979716 36349668 35759695 35009882 35169980 35750019
   36669979 37259800

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242043Z - 242145Z
   
   A SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS ACROSS WEST TX.
   THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE NEWD
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEAR AMA TO NEAR GAGE WHERE MUCAPE
   VALUES ARE ABOVE 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE
   MULTICELL THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
   
   36120087 34980266 33970298 34090182 35250014 36150067

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 251820Z - 252015Z



...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG LEADING LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN SD...INTO NWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM
INTO NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL AID AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH TIME STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS ERN
SD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING FURTHER ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251827Z - 252030Z
   
   THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF T.S. KATRINA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL
   CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL AT
   THIS TIME APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE.
   HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN FL
   CONTINUES A WWD MOTION AT 5KT PER LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC. BASED ON
   RADAR TRENDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CURVED SPIRAL
   BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO
   EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED CELLULAR ACTIVITY EXTENDS
   FROM COASTAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY EWD AND ESEWD OVER THE OCEAN NORTH
   OF THE BAHAMAS. SOME SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONFLUENCE AREA...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
   OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND NEARBY SPIRAL BAND...THIS
   REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
   INDICATION OF ROTATION WITH EXISTING CELLS TO THIS POINT EAST OF THE
   E-CENTRAL FL COAST. MLB VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES MINIMAL VEERING
   WITH HEIGHT AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. BASED ON A CELL MOTION OF
   75/30KT...SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 40-50 M2/S2 IN THE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM
   LAYERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 30KT 1-3KM ELY FLOW HAS OCCURRED SINCE
   15Z. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR/SRH PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
   TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE WW. THIS
   WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION/INTENSITY CHANGE OF
   THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   28148181 28378104 28288065 27158012 26468008 26298024
   26198069 26168117 26218166 26498217 26948220 27768212

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK
   PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252012Z - 252215Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3
   HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL
   KS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
   
   AT 20Z...SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
   EXTENDS NNW-SSE FROM 45S HLC TO 15W P28 AND THEN BENDS EWD ACROSS
   FAR NERN OK. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY CAPPED ON THE COOL
   /NORTHEAST/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS.
   MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS HEATED STRONGLY ACROSS SWRN KS SWD ACROSS
   NWRN OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...SWLY SFC
   WINDS...AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. MLCAPE
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ARE PRESENT JUST WEST AND SW OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED LINES OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN OK.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS WEAK...MOIST MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS
   COMBINED WITH SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING
   HOURS. IF STORMS DO FORM...CELLS WOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD AT
   20-25KT TOWARD STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS...WITH
   SFC-6KM VALUES OF 40KTS PRESENT AT THE HAVILAND KS PROFILER. MAIN
   THREAT WEST OF THE OUTFLOW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   WITH SRH/LOW-LEVEL VEERING ENHANCED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ANY
   POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS OR STORMS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   36169962 36130043 36340100 36970104 37680059 38020010
   38459880 37889826 36849757 36409866

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252031Z - 252130Z
   
   ...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ERN SD AND A SMALL PART OF
   NRN NEB...
   
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT IN SERN SD.  WITH A NARROW ZONE OF
   CLEARING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 MLCAPE HAS
   DEVELOPED WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EVOLVING.  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43149966 45849779 45479651 42589814

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN TN...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 252109Z - 252315Z



SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN
KY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX GENERATED FROM MORNING CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL AT 21Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
HEATED STRONGLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS BASED ON THE RUC INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL
CIN. NARROW ZONE OF 30-40KT SFC-6KM SHEAR EXISTS SOUTH OF MCV
CENTER...ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN IL WHERE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXISTS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD A CORRIDOR OF LONG-LIVED
CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR/WRN
TN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD EXHIBIT
PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 261515Z - 261745Z



POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON.

MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS
MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF
TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF
DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP
RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE
TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
AN HOUR OR SO.