Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

gtalum · #381 Postby **gtalum** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:25 pm

Wow that was quite a shift north and eastward. The XTRAP even moved. It looks like those models calling for a sharp northward turn might not have been so crazy after all.

#382 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:25 pm

Southfl - nope...I was being sarcastic because my graphics were showing it going over Hispaniola and I don't like them going up that direction because it is aimed my way LOL So, the lol was for the sarcasm

BUT, when I looked at the updated graphics, it wasn't going that way, so it didn't make sense then :wink:

But, thank you, really, for the graphics. I am better looking at those than the list of coordinates

Ola · #383 Postby **Ola** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:29 pm

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 16, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

he vigorous tropical wave located about 450 miles east-southeast
of southern Windward Islands has become better organized and is
showing signs of developing a surface low pressure center.
Upper-level winds have also become more favorable...and a tropical
depression could form later tonight or on Saturday as the system
moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor this
system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
tomorrow...if necessary.

Note that they mention the lesser antilles and the eastern caribbean sea. I think they are not buying the northard turn. Also not "west-northwest".[/b]

#384 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:29 pm

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

Anonymous · #385 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:35 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

Yep...right on target. No surprise, it was evident it has been slowly but surely organizing all day.

Website · #386 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:36 pm

WOW...

Derek Ortt · #387 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:37 pm

I have to state that I categorically disagree with that TWO regarding the TA system. The one north of PR is going to develop, little quesation regarding that.

However, I have been looking at very close up sat imagery all day and see zero evidence of a closed surface circulation

#388 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:38 pm

I see a hint of closed LLC....it's rather elongated, but I believe it's there.

Website · #389 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:41 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:However, I have been looking at very close up sat imagery all day and see zero evidence of a closed surface circulation

I guess recon will settle it tomorrow...

#390 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:51 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I have to state that I categorically disagree with that TWO regarding the TA system. The one north of PR is going to develop, little quesation regarding that.

However, I have been looking at very close up sat imagery all day and see zero evidence of a closed surface circulation

HUH categorically, TA system?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #391 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:41 pm

Why doe's he say that the enviroment is favable? I don't get it you can see the shear racing through it on the northern side. The nhc always says this in the face of shear.

Anonymous · #392 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:48 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Why doe's he say that the enviroment is favable? I don't get it you can see the shear racing through it on the northern side. The nhc always says this in the face of shear.

Well, those men take their jobs very seriously...and Stacy Stewart is a very good man...and a great forecaster.

sma10 · #393 Postby **sma10** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:59 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Why doe's he say that the enviroment is favable? I don't get it you can see the shear racing through it on the northern side. The nhc always says this in the face of shear.

doe's ??? favable ???

Ever hear of spell check?

Sorry, but when you can't even handle basic grammar how are we supposed to take any of your opinions seriously?

#394 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:01 pm

Wow.....that's harsh. I'm sure it's a fat finger type of error.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #395 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:07 pm

Who made you the freaking grammar police? Sorry for the mistakes, but everyone makes them.

As the storm it has 15 to 20 knot shear to its northern quad racing through it. Yes it seems to have a LLC but not a depression yet. The quickscats did not show a LLC this morning. So the recon will prove or disprove it.

But I already know that the nhc forecasters are good.

apocalypt-flyer · #396 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:22 pm

sma10 wrote:doe's ??? favable ???

Ever hear of spell check?

Sorry, but when you can't even handle basic grammar how are we supposed to take any of your opinions seriously?

... I rather have an informative post with some grammar errors than a post just jumping at other people's mistakes ..

Website · #397 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:24 pm

apocalypt-flyer wrote:
sma10 wrote:doe's ??? favable ???

Ever hear of spell check?

Sorry, but when you can't even handle basic grammar how are we supposed to take any of your opinions seriously?

... I rather have an informative post with some grammar errors than a post just jumping at other people's mistakes ..

I would rather*

:wink:

apocalypt-flyer · #398 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:26 pm

Oh, get out, it ain't even my native tongue .. :lol:

..

OURAGAN · #399 Postby **OURAGAN** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:30 pm

This system is developing, banding feature is begining.
i live in Guadeloupe an I watch it very seriously:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

caribepr · #400 Postby **caribepr** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:34 pm

OURAGAN wrote:This system is developing, banding feature is begining.
i live in Guadeloupe an I watch it very seriously:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Very seriously indeed. Time to turn the fans on high and blow this one (two??) away.

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