93L Invest

Website · #381 Postby **Brent** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:20 am

Vince cancel.

CHRISTY · #382 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:23 am

has anyone noticed that big flare up under cuba?

flhurricaneguy · #383 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:24 am

yes christy i also noticed that i will not write this storm off yet

CHRISTY · #384 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:26 am

ronjon · #385 Postby **ronjon** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 10:53 am

There is some CC turning just north of the western tip of Cuba. There is a 1004 mb low positioned there with heavy convection to the east and south. As this low moves N-NE away from the Cuban coast look for it to continue to develop. The upper level winds are currently favorable until the system reaches about 25N. I'm not sure we can write this off since we have a low, nearby convection, warm SSTs, and a small window of time for development. Again, it may be more hybrid (subtropical) so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

#386 Postby **Noah** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:12 pm

Ok, wait a minute, there is a rain event over florida now and now something formed around cuba, or is this the same thing?

#387 Postby **dcuevas** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:25 pm

Does anyone know if this is going to be named?

Rainband · #388 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:25 pm

Our local discussion says no development expected..just rain. :wink:

weatherwindow · #389 Postby **weatherwindow** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:39 pm

IMHO......i wouldnt be surprised to see the incipient center of 93L, currently near cabo san antonio(western end of cuba), reform under or near the blowup south of pinar del rio. if so this has a future....rich

CHRISTY · #390 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:55 pm

#391 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:03 pm

THE 1004 MB LOW NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA AND THE SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM
17.5N-22N BETWEEN 82W-86W...SOMEWHAT IN THE STRUCTURE OF A
SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS E
OF THIS AREA OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
75W-82W. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A DEEP POOL OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

2 PM Discussion.Nothing there that looks to form anytime soon.

DESTRUCTION5 · #392 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:THE 1004 MB LOW NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA AND THE SHARP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM
17.5N-22N BETWEEN 82W-86W...SOMEWHAT IN THE STRUCTURE OF A
SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS E
OF THIS AREA OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
75W-82W. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A DEEP POOL OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

2 PM Discussion.Nothing there that looks to form anytime soon.

Sounds to me like thier gonna leave it in the Carribean now ...Instead of chassing Tammy..
T

ROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

Website · #393 Postby **Brent** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:15 pm

Rainband wrote:Our local discussion says no development expected..just rain.

Yeah... development looks unlikely.

audioslave8 · #394 Postby **audioslave8** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:19 pm

Nothing but a blob of rain!!!

#395 Postby **Windtalker1** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:36 pm

For Now!!! :roll:

#396 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:59 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051006 1800 051007 0600 051007 1800 051008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 84.0W 24.6N 82.9W 27.6N 81.8W 31.0N 80.1W
BAMM 22.5N 84.0W 24.4N 82.9W 27.1N 81.8W 30.0N 80.1W
A98E 22.5N 84.0W 23.5N 82.6W 25.1N 81.1W 26.4N 79.7W
LBAR 22.5N 84.0W 23.8N 83.2W 26.1N 82.7W 28.9N 82.2W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051008 1800 051009 1800 051010 1800 051011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.4N 77.5W 40.6N 71.5W 43.4N 63.1W 41.8N 53.7W
BAMM 32.8N 77.9W 37.2N 74.2W 41.2N 71.4W 44.2N 65.7W
A98E 27.4N 78.8W 27.6N 78.6W 27.0N 78.6W 24.9N 78.7W
LBAR 31.6N 81.6W 36.4N 78.6W 40.7N 73.5W 43.3N 65.0W
SHIP 58KTS 62KTS 54KTS 39KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 44KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 51DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

For those who may still be interested to see the models here is the 18:00z run for 93L.

#397 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:03 pm

Thanks Luis!

Recurve · #398 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:30 pm

A98E (taken with a grain of salt) put this coming up to the Upper Keys/Flamingo area:

A98E 22.5N 84.0W 23.5N 82.6W 25.1N 81.1W 26.4N 79.7W

Please,
No development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development no development!

gilbert88 · #399 Postby **gilbert88** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:56 pm

That model got up kind of pessimistic today.. check out its creepy 94L forecast. :eek:

#400 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:00 pm

93L Invest

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