Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[truballer#1]

heres the new gfdl if anybody wants to look at it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cjrciadt]

heres the new gfdl if anybody wants to look at it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

IT stays a borderline Cat3 throughout crossing FL???????!!!!!!!!!!

[truballer#1]

[skysummit]

That GFDL also has Wilma starting NW almost immediately, but that's not happening.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the NW turn happens later than the models
show- would that mean landfall further up or down
the florida west coast??

[Downdraft]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

[Scorpion]

If the NW turn happens later than the models
show- would that mean landfall further up or down
the florida west coast??

I doubt it will make much of a difference.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the NW turn happens later than the models
show- would that mean landfall further up or down
the florida west coast??

I doubt it will make much of a difference.

If it really happens later, like 10+ hrs later...would it shift north or south?

[krysof]

I think they may be turning Wilma too quickly and sharply into Florida.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

If the NW turn happens later than the models
show- would that mean landfall further up or down
the florida west coast??

I think. and I believe I also read this on the TPC site, that the longer the system takes to emerge into the gulf, the more radical the right turn it would make. So if it doesn't make as much northern progress early, Southwest florida would be more at risk.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks scorpion and calmbeforestorm for replies

[skysummit]

If the NW turn happens later than the models
show- would that mean landfall further up or down
the florida west coast??

I think. and I believe I also read this on the TPC site, that the longer the system takes to emerge into the gulf, the more radical the right turn it would make. So if it doesn't make as much northern progress early, Southwest florida would be more at risk.

I read that also. I believe the reason behind it is this front that's supposed to dip down is supposed to be extremely strong for this time of the year? I read somewhere, possible record breaking low temperatures for some areas.?.?

[gatorcane]

I wonder why Baynews9 in Tampa/St. Petersburg does not even mention Wilma anywhere in it's new section on the homepage and it's viewing area extends south into Sarasota County. All the other local stations mention something about it.

LinkWeather, why is that?
http://www.baynews9.com

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Baynews9 talks about it every 10 minutes on its weather
but they usu. update the sites much later I think

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

This from the 5:00 discussion;

ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

As I stated in a previous post, the further north it hits the weaker it will likely be.

[ronjon]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

This from the 5:00 discussion;

ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

As I stated in a previous post, the further north it hits the weaker it will likely be.

Not according to the 18Z GFDL - kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the GFDL shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to Charley but much bigger storm).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

we may see a reverse Charley situation here I'm afraid. That is, most models will predict it crossing SW. Florida but it will actually move more NE than ENE before turning ENE.

In other words, Wilma will finish off what Charley was meant to do possibly

[tracyswfla]

we may see a reverse Charley situation here I'm afraid. That is, most models will predict it crossing SW. Florida but it will actually move more NE than ENE before turning ENE.

In other words, Wilma will finish off what Charley was meant to do possibly

Huh? As in Tampa?

[Bgator]

we may see a reverse Charley situation here I'm afraid. That is, most models will predict it crossing SW. Florida but it will actually move more NE than ENE before turning ENE.

In other words, Wilma will finish off what Charley was meant to do possibly

Possibly i think tampa is an absolute north spot as of now, but S FLA seems reasonable, but you never know!

[gatorcane]

Huh? As in Tampa?

Exactly.