Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

#381 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:46 pm

storm wont go into the gulf (i think). after it passes through Florida i think that the shear will rise again.

#382 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:52 pm

SHEAR TENDENCY:

WIND SHEAR:

IF THESE MAPS ARE TELLING THE REALITY, IT WOULD MEAN THAT THE SHEAR VALUES SE OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP TO BASICALLY ZERO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LET SEE WHAT HAPPENS!!!!

#383 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:55 pm

that would stregrenthn the chances for devlopment!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #384 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:57 pm

Nope this is a upper low. Inside a upper low the shear is lower while the shear southeast of the upper low rises. Also upper lows take time+convection to work there way down to the surface. It can take a week for some to develop if it was faverable. So not going to happen.

Rainband · #385 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:57 pm

It's only april. Chances are Slim to none.

CHRISTY · #386 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:07 pm

THESE TWO MAPS UPDATE DAILY JUST HIT REFRESH....doesn't look like much right now but we will see.

Extremeweatherguy · #387 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:08 pm

Yes chances are slim to none, but after the last few years I would say anything is possible. HECK; based on the last two years alone I would not be surprised at all to see this thing explode into a major hurricane (not really going to happen, but if for some reason it did..I would not be surprised). My take on it now is a wait and see situation. If I see lots of convection fire around the center then I/we may need to start watching more closely.

Rainband · #388 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:13 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yes chances are slim to none, but after the last few years I would say anything is possible. HECK; based on the last two years alone I would not be surprised at all to see this thing explode into a major hurricane (not really going to happen, but if for some reason it did..I would not be surprised). My take on it now is a wait and see situation. If I see lots of convection fire around the center then I/we may need to start watching more closely.

I would be really surprised :wink:

#389 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:18 pm

Ok lets watch the convection around the "center" and see if it wraps all the way around. Also watch surface pressures; if they begin to fall and convection organizes then we may have something. Right now it does appear to be a UL and its pretty rare for one to spin down to the surface in April but I guess this is worth watching.

CHRISTY · #390 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:26 pm

OK PEOPLE TAKE A LOOK AT THE NOGAPS BECAUSE ITS SHOWING SOME WIERD THINGS.TELL ME WHAT U SEE....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

#391 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:46 pm

I checked and I don't see anything interesting. Can you post a screen shot?

Weatherfreak000 · #392 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:49 pm

Not much?

#393 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:55 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W EQ40W 2S45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE
FOUND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF...WITH A
AN UPPER HIGH AT MID LEVELS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N-101W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF. A CUT-OFF LOW
CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE GULF
WATERS...NORTHWEST OF 30N83W 25N86W 22N90W. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF TROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES E SAT THROUGH MON...SLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER N
COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
22N72W TO 30N60W AND BEYOND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SAME LOW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 73W IN THE W ATLANTIC. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA FROM LAS TUNAS
TO GUANTANAMO. MODERATE TO STRONG NELY FLOW BLOW JUST NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE NELY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTROLS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
29N-33W IS OVER THE E ATLC. A 80-100 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS NEWD ALONG 25N-25W
30N-20W AND BEYOND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH IS
OVER W AFRICA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL/E
ATLANTIC FROM 30W-50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.

$$
GR

CHRISTY · #394 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:56 pm

boca_chris wrote:I checked and I don't see anything interesting. Can you post a screen shot?

NOGAPS..

#395 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:57 pm

Christy the MM5FSU is from last year in October....

The NOGAPS is really interesting tonight though - what is that in the Caribbean? :eek:

CHRISTY · #396 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:04 pm

Weatherfreak000 · #397 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:07 pm

you know models sometimes have weird runs...perhaps waiting and watching more then one model run is sufficient in finding a true possible weather event :roll:

CHRISTY · #398 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:08 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:you know models sometimes have weird runs...perhaps waiting and watching more then one model run is sufficient in finding a true possible weather event

yep...lets see if it continues in other runs it probably wont just thought it was interesting.

#399 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:13 pm

This is getting ridiculous.

#400 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:14 pm

which direction is it heading now? NW or SW?

Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

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