Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[johngaltfla]

There is no way, not any possible way, any responsible forecaster can call this a Florida, Texas, Delaware or Shanghai storm yet.

Granted, Delaware and Shanghai ain't happening, but let's all calm down, watch the observations and advisories and wait until tommorrow. I know the last two seasons got all of us in the bullseye(s) somewhat excited.

I defer to the pros for now. It they don't have a clue, why should I speculate. History gives us hints, but ONLY if they climatology duplicates to some degree.

/Rant off

[hicksta]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.

Didnt i call that cat 4 LOL =]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Although it's difficult to say without viasible imagery I think a LLC might be closing off now. On the Shortwave loop you can see low level clouds starting to circle into the system on the south side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Johnny]

Let's get an LLC established before getting worried on how strong and where this thing might go. I just got through reading the last 4 pages of this thread and I see people already getting riled up. Sema down people!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.

Didnt i call that cat 4 LOL =]

I think we all did.

[Derek Ortt]

Bob Break said shear?

Where does he get some of his forecasts from? Nothing I have seen indicates shear

[ROCK]

Although it's difficult to say without viasible imagery I think a LLC might be closing off now. On the Shortwave loop you can see low level clouds starting to circle into the system on the south side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I think your right......almost there.....

[Pearl River]

I agree with not blowing this out of proportion right now. Let's give it a couple of days and see what happens. We all know the models change just about every run. Louisiana just started it's Road Home program. Hopefully next week it's not the Road Out Of Here.

[ROCK]

Bob Break said shear?

Where does he get some of his forecasts from? Nothing I have seen indicates shear

Derek, that was second hand info.....hearsay...not the best kind of info to have....

[jasons2k]

I agree. I seem to recall a few days back there was a storm shown by the models that was supposed to hit the Central GOM. It never materialized.

I think there were only a select few that bought into that. It was the CMC and NAM (as usual) showing that, and some of us pointed out the models were not to be trusted with that system.

This go-around is a 180 from that.

[gatorcane]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.

Latest models that I see that were posted a page back take it more north and bring it over Central Cuba and into the SE GOM.

[gulfcoastdave]

I have been lurking the past many weeks on the site. People are too dang storm jumpy. How anyone can say a storm will hit an area before it even forms is beyond me. Can we please wait until there is at least a TD........

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.

Latest models that I see that were posted a page back take it more north and bring it over Central Cuba and into the SE GOM.

I am just going by what I have heard the pro mets say. I havn't heard any of them say SE Gulf yet.

[ROCK]

Let's get an LLC established before getting worried on how strong and where this thing might go. I just got through reading the last 4 pages of this thread and I see people already getting riled up. Sema down people!

Well if what I am seeing on sat right now 97 is closing off tonight....so I will refrain from getting overly excited or worried until the morning......

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's tune down those (Going to Texas,LA etc ) because it's very very,very early for posting like that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

ok well I guess I will be back in the morning to see what has changed by then..

[ROCK]

Hey bro thats about 10 days out. If not more. So alot can change in that time.

A potential TX threat is probably more like 6-9 days out. We could very well be preparing for it this time next week if this is indeed heading our way. The models seem to want to have this all the way to the Yucatan channel by day 5. Hopefully though this one will play and Chris and not affect our area. I really am not in the mood for a major hurricane that blows over all the pine trees around me.

Latest models that I see that were posted a page back take it more north and bring it over Central Cuba and into the SE GOM.

what model?? the BAMMs??

[HouTXmetro]

I "WILL NOT" HAVE THIS SYSTEM INTERFERING WITH THE FIRST WEEK of TEXAS HIGHSCHOOL & COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!!!!!!! COME BACK SOME OTHER TIME!!!!!!

[Vortex]

It's not a surprise that the models indicate a more wnw/nw movement during Ernestos trek across the carribean. Most guidance I've analyzed during the day/evening indicate a general weakness along the east coast in 4-6 days. The overall synoptic environment in 3-5 days indicates a more amplitude pattern along the east coast with weak ridging at best. This set-up will become crucial in determing what area comes under the gun. In addition, some guidance is also indicating multiple short waves late this weekend which would further erode heights to the north of the storm when it enters the western carribean. All these factors will become critical deterning where Ernesto ends up.

In terms of intensity, it's likely we will be dealing with a major cane in the western carribean early next week. Favorable atmosheric conditions, high oceanci heat content, and the time of year all spell the perfect recipe for a significant hurricane in the NW carribean in 4-5 days. Anyone from Texas to the Florida Keys should realy begin monitoring this situation.

[MississippiHurricane]

about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)