TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We don't went death or anything like that...We are here to track them in learn. I think its getting very old very fast.

[Terry]

That's sad to...Shows you some people aren't right in some of their thoughts. Want systems all for the wrong reasons, like televison does....Want death, floods, anything as long as you watch their channel...

You must not "get it." We on S2K don't want death and destrution. We do enjoy tracking the tropical storms. If you don't. then why are you here?

[fci]

Matt:
I was referring to the death of the system in a joking manner after a very stressful day for South Florida..
It was a joke.
Don't worry, there will be more to track soon; like the wave by 40.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let me clarify that...NOT ALL...Just a few people on here are like that...Didn't mean to affend.

99.9 % of posters on here are great people...

[Zardoz]

The fact that it's bedtime across the U.S. may have something to do with the decreased traffic.

[Wx_Warrior]

Uh....should have been on here the last few nights then and during Chris...it was more packed than ladies night down on Crockett Street in Beaumont on a Friday!

[Regit]

Back to Topic...

No one seems to have noticed that Ernesto has jogged to the north in the last few IR shots.

[fci]

Last night there were many more than 91 on the board at this hour.

The "show" is about over.

It was an exciting few days for SE Fla particularly today.
Stressful but adrenaline pumping for a Tropical Tracker

Not that Ernesto is dead yet.....

Oh yeah he is!!!
(huge set up for crow but I'll risk it euphoric that I did not put up shutters)

[fci]

Back to Topic...

No one seems to have noticed that Ernesto has jogged to the north in the last few IR shots.

If you are right, he is like a cockaroach.
You can never kill them off.
And when you think you have squished him/her; next thing you know they go scurrying across the floor!

[Wx_Warrior]

Link regit???

[Regit]

It's a small jog so far, but small is all he needs. We'll see as time goes by.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[boca]

Aren't we in the eclipse right now so no satelites until 2 or 3am?

[Regit]

Last photo in that loop was 11:45, so not too old.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Last satellite before eclipse showed some deep convection which has been well to the southeast of the center and south of the southern coast of cuba all evening being pulled nnw towards the LLC. Also some weaker convection NNW of the center. Possiblillity as this feederband type convection on the east side of the center gets pulled closer of it jumpstarting Ernies core with some deeper thunderstorms and maybe this could take off. Cant get much worse ehh?

Animation available here http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[boca]

Do you think the center is between the two thunderstorm masses. Did you notice the SE convection is being pulled off the north coast on the last frame.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Do you think the center is between the two thunderstorm masses. Did you notice the SE convection is being pulled off the north coast on the last frame.

Yes, I think the center is roughly near the X in the pic. Yes, looks like it may be getting pulled into Ernesto, Jump start maybe?

[boca]

Its like a dead battery. Ernesto is only about 20 miles inland is amazing and he thinks the waters are too cold so he doesn't want to junp in.

[Regit]

Looking at the Floater 2 loop, I'd put the center on the coast (give or take maybe 5 miles).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HurricaneJim]

Back to Topic...

No one seems to have noticed that Ernesto has jogged to the north in the last few IR shots.

I have. If he can get clear of landmass, the water might just give him a chance. But in his current state, he'd need a lot of luck and stay well away from FL (which doesn't appear to be likely). But even then the bahamas offer more ground interference. (but nothing like Cuba, which I'd love to chase a live one down there. An extraordinary adventure to be sure.)

But who knows, it's weather. Morning will tell more.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

PS: The Wave at 40 does look intersting.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Hey, me and Nexrad (from the tropical analysis forum) were thinking the same thing

Early AM thoughts...

Ernesto's center appears, per IR imagery, to be now just starting to emerge along the N Cuba coast. This ought take place by the TPC's 5AM advisory. Meanwhile, the upper low NW of Ernesto is backing away from the system. As the TPC 11PM discussion anticipated, this is resulting in improved moisture fields about Ernesto's W and SW regions. Deep convection that formed over SE Cuba earlier is propogating Nward. Additional cells are developing in the moist air E of Ernesto's center. If these trends persist, by Tuesday AM we could quite see a noticeably improved convective appearance in place for Ernesto.

If the storm is able to develop a compact core once again, then intensification to a hurricane will be much more likely.

- Jay
KSC FL

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89018